What Will Be The Biggest Box Office Blockbuster Of 2017?

10. “Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales”
Johnny Depp’s been on a rotten box-office run of late: In the five years since the last “Pirates Of The Caribbean” movie, his only $100 million domestic grossers have been films where he had cameos, in “21 Jump Street,” “Into The Woods” and ‘Fantastic Beasts,’ with everything else tanking, even the sequel to the billion-dollar-grossing “Alice In Wonderland.” As such, the fifth ‘Pirates’ movie should be an interesting test of the star’s power, and the franchise’s enduring power, after both Depp’s poor choices and the domestic-abuse accusations towards him. Delayed a couple of times now, it’s intended to go back to the vibe of the original, with Orlando Bloom and (possibly) Keira Knightley returning, with Javier Bardem on villain duties. Rumors are that directors Joachim Rønning and Espen Sandberg have turned out the best film since the first with this, but will that be enough to bring the film back over the billion-dollar mark again? Could this be another “Alice In Wonderland” surprise flop? Our instinct is that we’ll see a bit of a drop-off here, maybe to $800 or $900 million, but that it’ll still be successful enough to keep the series alive.

9. “Wonder Woman”
June brings the first female-fronted superhero movies since, disgracefully, “Elektra” in 2005, and the first solo movie outing for DC’s Amazon warrior, first glimpsed in ‘Batman v Superman.’ And with it comes perhaps the best chance to turn around the fortunes of the DC movie-verse. Or does it? Trailers suggest a lighter film (i.e. there are lines recognizable as jokes) than the last two, and the presence of a director who actually knows how to tell a story on film in Patty Jenkins can only be a boon after Zack Snyder and David Ayer. Then again, Snyder co-wrote the script here, and the film was in production before the toxic reception to “Batman v Superman” hit, so it’s unclear how much darkness was in there already (and the trailers do suggest a fair amount). Either way, there’s a certain amount of goodwill towards it if only because of how rare it is to see a female-fronted and -directed actioner on this scale. $750 million seems to be the bottom window for a DC movie (assuming there isn’t a men’s-rights backlash from insecure fanboys) — but this could stand a pretty good chance at cracking a billion if it’s even halfway good (and if Warner Bros. don’t fuck with it too much in post).

8. “Justice League”
Or as the full title should probably read, “Justice League: Course Correction.” Last year was meant to be the year when DC fought back hard against Marvel, thanks to ‘Batman v Superman‘ and “Suicide Squad,” but the films were horrifically received by all but the most fervent DC fans, and while among last year’s top grossers, failed to cross the billion-dollar mark that they were clearly aiming for (and, frankly, needed to make). “Justice League” has been promised since early on to be a lighter, funnier film, though whether that means genuinely light, or simply that Batman murders and tortures fewer people, remains to be seen. The assumption is that this’ll do better than ‘Batman v Superman’ by virtue of being a true “Avengers”-style team-up movie, but we wonder if that’s necessarily the case — Zack Snyder’s last film was already sold on teaming up the major characters, and no one among the general public cares if Khal Drogo and The Red Guy and The Other One join the “fun” this time around. Still, to be generous and to avoid DC fans sending us human shit in the mail, we’ll assume that this is better received and buzzed-about (“Wonder Woman” being good would definitely help), in which case it could well cross a billion and maybe go higher. But if it’s still recognizably a Zack Snyder joint, it’s easy to see this doing an “Amazing Spider-Man 2” and actually under-grossing its predecessor.

7. “Spider-Man: Homecoming”
It’s looking increasingly like the deal that Sony and Marvel struck to share use of “Spider-Man,” with Kevin Feige producing MCU-set Spidey films for Sony in exchange for using the character in team-up movies (with, amazingly, no money changing hands), is one of the smartest in recent studio exec history. The toxic reception to “The Amazing Spider-Man 2” had left Sony in a real pickle, but much of the goodwill was restored thanks to Tom Holland’s charming debut as Peter Parker in “Captain America: Civil War.” The real test will come with this summer’s solo movie, which promises to be as much teen movie as superheroics, and brings a fun cast along, including Robert Downey, Jr. cashing a presumably gigantic paycheck as Tony Stark. Even the ‘Amazing’ series managed to make it into the $700 millions, so that feels like the lowest possible number here, but with added Iron Man and a boost coming off ‘Civil War,’ we think this could well be Spidey’s first-billion dollar grosser, unless it shits the bed as hard as its predecessor did.

6. “Transformers: The Last Knight”
We’re consistently desperate to see some kind of sign that the “Transformers” franchise is running out of steam. And to some extent, you can find them if you look: The third film made $50 million less than the second, and the fourth film, despite the addition of Mark Wahlberg, made a full $100 million less than that (and over $70 million less than the original). But the trouble is that Michael Bay’s series of exploding robo-clusterfucks continue to perform fantastically internationally, and ‘Age Of Extinction‘ became the second movie in the series to cross the billion-dollar mark worldwide, despite the dip in U.S. grosses. The fifth film retains Wahlberg, but drops most else in favor of starting a new mythology dreamed up by a writer’s room that promises to take in King Arthur and Hitler. It looks like the same old shit to us, but it almost certainly won’t make any difference. Without it being partly set in China, international grosses may dip a bit, but we’re pretty sure that it’ll still cross the billion-dollar mark.

5. “Despicable Me 3”
The unlikeliest billion-dollar franchise around is “Despicable Me.” Adored by kids and drunk douchebags who like to dress as Minions for house parties, it began as a relatively modest sleeper, but surprisingly saw the second film in the series make $970 million worldwide, before 2015’s spin-off “Minions” soared over the magic number. The third “Despicable Me” returns to Steve Carell’s Gru, this time facing off against an ’80s-obsessed villain played by Trey Parker, and looks to be even less creatively fulfilling than the second. But despite that, and a marketing campaign that has so far (perhaps wisely, given their overexposure) mostly shied away from the Minions, this is a money-printing machine waiting to happen, particularly in a summer without much really serious animated competition. Our guess is that this makes less than “Minions” did (it’s probably starting to reach the “Ice Age” downward spiral), but should still make it to a billion.

4. “Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2”
It was a huge gamble in many respects, but “Guardians Of The Galaxy” might be the most genuinely beloved of all the Marvel movies, and is probably the most successful at melding humor, spectacle and real heart. It was rewarded as such, becoming the biggest blockbuster of 2014, and taking $750 million worldwide. Given the warm feelings toward it, Marvel are clearly targeting at least a billion for the follow-up, and it feels like an eminently reachable target. Sure, no first Marvel sequel (beyond ‘Age Of Ultron,’ which is a sequel to all of them) has cracked the billion-dollar mark before, but also no introductory movie made as much money the first time at bat, and certainly none of them had the adorable Baby Groot all over the marketing. Trailers haven’t yet suggested a reason why the sequel had to exist from a narrative point of view, so there’s a risk that it feels a bit “Iron Man 2” in the end. But with the film landing on the ever-lucrative summer-opening slot of the first weekend in May, and with only the DOA “King Arthur” and the R-rated “Alien: Covenant” as its competition in the weeks after, we can see this going as high as $1.2/$1.3 billion.

3. “The Fate Of The Furious”
The cries of horror and shock when the trailer for the hilariously named eighth “Fast & The Furious” movie hit before Christmas and revealed that Vin Diesel’s Dom Toretto had seemingly turned evil and abandoned his family is a measure of how invested people have become in series over the years. The new series has escalated manners ever further, with the action more ludicrous (including a submarine, which had better be being piloted by Helen Mirren, who takes a small supporting role, which is possibly the single greatest thing to ever happen in the history of movies); the villainy classier, thanks to a visibly miserable Charlize Theron; and the emotions seemingly more heightened. It’ll undoubtedly be a massive hit, but probably not as massive as “Furious 7,” which took a giant $700 million step up from the sixth film, in large part because of the sense that the film was a goodbye to the late Paul Walker. It’ll surely cruise past a billion dollars, but probably land at $1.2 or $1.3 billion unless it has some real surprises under its hood.

2. “Beauty And The Beast”
This decade has seen Disney somehow find an insanely lucrative revenue stream with live-action remakes of their animated classics, and they’ve ranged from insanely successful (“Alice In Wonderland,” “The Jungle Book”) to extremely successful (“Oz The Great And Powerful”), with only the “Alice” sequel flopping (hilariously). We’re going to see roughly 800,000 more in the years to come, but we suspect that we’re about to see a new kind of success with this year’s entry, “Beauty And The Beast.” It looks to be following the formula — featuring a starry cast with blandly attractive leads; strongly evoking the animated classics, in this case by retaining the classic songs; amping the action up a little. But the trick here is that it’s the first time that Disney have remade one of their 1990s Disney Renaissance classics, films that millennials were alive to see in theaters and have taken a billion Buzzfeed quizzes about since. The trailer has already broken records set by “Star Wars,” and with a prime spring-break release date, we think this will hit the kind of numbers that many aren’t expecting — think “Jurassic World,” but with more appeal to women. $1.2 billion seems like the bottom floor, $1.5 billion the top.

1. “Star Wars: Episode VIII”
After the last two years (‘Rogue One‘ is not yet 2016’s top grosser worldwide, but will likely overtake ‘Civil War‘ and “Finding Dory” in the next few weeks), only a fool would put anything other than “Star Wars” in the top slot here. The question here, then, is more of how high it goes. Anyone expecting it to top ‘The Force Awakens‘ and its $2 billion total will likely be disappointed: As the first film in the franchise in 10 years, and the first to reunite the original cast in 35, it was a once-in-a-generation phenomenon. It’ll certainly do better than ‘Rogue One,’ given the warm feelings towards ‘The Force Awakens,’ the chance to see Luke Skywalker fully back in action, and a final chance to see Carrie Fisher on screen as Leia. We’re inclined to think it’ll be closer to ‘Episode VII’ than ‘Rogue One,’ assuming Rian Johnson nails it the way we think he will, but we think $1.7 billion or $1.8 billion might be the most it can make — ultimately, when you have a “Star Wars” movie every year, they stop being quite so special…

Beyond that, there are some further would-be blockbusters that we didn’t think could crack the Top 30, but we could turn out to be underestimating. DreamWorks Animation can be hit and miss, and neither “Boss Baby” nor “Captain Underpants” seem… immediately enticing, but that doesn’t mean that they couldn’t take off. Luc Besson’s “Valerian” could either be a “Jupiter Ascending”-sized flop or a “Guardians Of The Galaxy”-sized hit, but it’s an exciting gamble to see. As we said above, “Baywatch” feels like a domestic hit more than an international one, but we could turn out to be wrong; while the imminent “xXx3” isn’t tracking to do even a fraction of “Fast & The Furious”-style numbers, but could yet kill internationally.

Best case scenario for “Power Rangers” would be the $500 million that “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles” did, but its strange grim-and-gritty approach means we’re not really sure who it’s for, and we think it’ll come in a lot lower than that. Maybe “Life” turns out to be a surprise smash, but it needs to show that it’s not ridiculously generic and it’s only two months out, while Warner Bros. has delayed “King Arthur” so many times that it’s very unlikely that it’s going to be a force.

“The Dark Tower” is a bit of a question mark: It seems risky on the page, but the studio have bullishly placed it at the height of summer, so appear to be confident in it. Jennifer Lawrence took a bit of a hit with “Passengers,” but even that is nearing $200 million, so spy thriller “Red Sparrow” could do better. And Hugh Jackman musical “The Greatest Showman On Earth” is one to keep an eye on — “Chicago” or “Les Misérables” numbers could be doable if it’s good. Anything else you’re predicting for success? Let us know in the comments.