Weekend Box Office: The ‘Shrek’ Phenomenon Is Ogre?

Most people like to play “doomsday prognosticator” when a film doesn’t open to unrealistic expectations. These people will tell you that “Shrek Forever After” disappointed at the box office this weekend, and they are right, considering the last film opened to over $120 million and the second had a $108 opening weekend. Most people saw the third “Shrek” film (sandwiched between “Spider-Man 3” and “Pirates Of The Caribbean”) drop like a stone after that opening and saw the writing on the wall. “Shrek” is over.

Or is it? Consider that “Shrek” is headed into a fairly uncompetitive Memorial Day weekend and has smooth sailing for the CGI toon sweepstakes until “Toy Story 3” rolls along. Provided international is there, doing “How To Train Your Dragon” numbers should be enough to put “Shrek” in the black. Still, this was the first “Shrek” benefiting from elevated 3D prices. Maybe it’s more than just the obnoxious green ogre. Nationwide reports took a sky-is-falling approach to the story about “Shrek Forever After” tickets costing $20 a pop, and perhaps this is finally audiences’ subtle way of saying they won’t pay for subpar product. We look forward to a Tea Party-like rebellion of assholes who paid for “Twilight: New Moon” picketing because they suddenly deem “Twilight: Eclipse” unworthy of their dollars.

“Iron Man 2” and “Robin Hood” stuck around at #2 and #3. “Iron Man 2” didn’t have the audience loss this weekend that it did last, but its third weekend is decidedly less muscular than its predecessor’s. With $26 million in the till this weekend, it needs $67 million to tie the first film’s domestic take, which is not what most were expecting at this juncture. As long as the film does $300m, and the international holds up (it has vastly outperformed the original overseas, probably due to the international Gary Shandling Factor), Marvel should be content, though they’ll have to work some marketing magic to get people excited for “Thor.”

Speaking of international, it’s the saving grace for “Robin Hood,” which may have legs but otherwise looks like a $100 mil.-and-out picture domestically. Worldwide, the film’s probably going to be close to $250 by the end of the weekend, and a $300+ million worldwide final should be enough to stay alive over at Universal, though $400 really gives them far more profitability breathing room. People might be fired, but in this case, they can rest with the notion that it might just be unmerited.

Chick flicks “Letters To Juliet” and “Just Wright” remain at #4 and #5, though we wonder how elastic the female fanbase is when “Sex and the City 2” arrives next weekend. Will “Juliet”‘s $27 million total be deflated by the arrival of Carrie and the gang? Why does no one ask if the major male-oriented blockbusters are going to siphon each others’ viewers? We’d also like to think that these three movies are not indicative of the types of women that female audiences want to see onscreen, but then again, we’d like to think men shouldn’t take lessons from all the serial murderers, tough cops, morose assassins and Apatowian layabouts they see onscreen either.

Poor, poor “MacGruber.” It’s incredibly difficult to sell a comedy with action elements, as “MacGruber” co-star Val Kilmer can attest to – the WB are still wondering what they should’ve done with “Kiss Kiss Bang Bang.” As is, we think Universal pushed the action angle too hard, leaving people wondering if it was a comedy with action elements (it was) or an action picture with jokes (nope). “MacGruber” and “Hot Rod” are prime examples of why this current “Saturday Night Live” regime seems to be, sadly, a terrible launching pad for Hollywood talent, even with the more talented cast members. Speaking of “Saturday Night Live” alum, Tina Fey’s “Date Night” (also starring Steve Carrell!) again posted the smallest audience drop in the top ten, and might have enough juice to clear $100 before the end of its run, which is nice on everybody’s resume.

“A Nightmare On Elm Street” continued to dodder around at the bottom of the lineup, currently at a $60 million gross, while Dreamworks finally deflated “How To Train Your Dragon.” The 3D toon had all its IMAX screens lost to labelmate “Shrek,” losing a chunk of its audience with an eye towards the end of its run. The question is, at $215 million or so, will the fourth “Shrek” have the muscle to catch them? At #10 was a Hindi film called “Kites,” re-edited for America by that noted ambassador Brett Ratner. The film’s per-screen wasn’t very strong, but to crawl into the top ten during a busy season has to be something of an accomplishment for a film on only 200 screens. We’ve never heard of it, but looking up the synopsis, the plot sounds like the music video for R. Kelly’s “Down Low” and we LOVE that song.

In limited release, the hits of the season seem to be “The Secret In Their Eyes,” “Hubble 3D” and “City Island.” The last two posted less than 4% audience loss from last weekend and stand at $4.2 and $6.4 million respectively, while Oscar-winner “Eyes” continues to improve during it’s six week expansion, pulling in $483k to land in the top 15. The week’s biggest indie debut was the Michael Douglas dramedy “Solitary Man,” which pulled in $89k on only four screens. Not so fortunate was the documentary “Racing Dreams,” which needed 33 screens to collect $21.5k. Support your local indie theater folks.

1. Shrek, For The Last Goddamned Time – $71.2 million
2. Iron Man Dos – $26.6 million ($251 mil.)
3. Robin Hood – $18.7 million ($66 mil.)
4. Letters To Juliet – $9.1 million ($27 mil.)
5. Male Rapper Furthers Stereotypes By Playing Professional Athlete – $4.2 million ($15 mil.)
6. MacGruber – $4.1 million
7. Date Night – $2.8 million ($91 mil.)
8. A Nightmare On Elm Street – $2.3 million ($60 mil.)
9. How To Caress Your Dragon – $1.9 million ($211 mil.)
10. Kites – $1 million