What TIFF’s 2017 Slate Tells Us About the 2018 Oscar Race

The first wave of 2017 Toronto International Film Festival screenings were announced this morning and, as always, it was illuminating in many ways. Toronto still has its share of complete world premieres, but in many ways has become a catch up festival for potential awards players that have already debuted at Sundance, Cannes, Venice and the dreaded Telluride. And, it must be noted, while TIFF has focused on a slimmer and more “focused” slate this year there will still be a ton of other titles added in the weeks to come.

In case you’re new to this game, it’s important to realize that a world premiere at TIFF hasn’t won Best Picture since 2006 and that film, “Crash,” actually debuted at the 2004 edition of the festival (Note: Previously this story noted “The Hurt Locker” which actually debuted at Venice first). Many Best Picture winners since then have screened at TIFF, but they have either debuted at Telluride (“12 Years A Slave,” “Argo,” “The King’s Speech,” “Moonlight”), Venice (“Spotlight”) or Cannes (“The Artist”) first (Note: “Birdman” did not screen at TIFF after its Venice debut). Since “Locker” the following TIFF world premieres have been nominated for Oscar’s biggest prize and kept its awards-friendly reputation intact : “A Serious Man,” “Moneyball,” “Silver Linings Playbook,” “Dallas Buyers Club,” “The Theory of Everything” “The Martian” and “Lion.” None of them came close to winning, but, hey, nominations and some key acting honors mean something, right?

Baring any last minute “sneaks” at Telluride (always possible) the potential world premiere Best Picture contenders so far from TIFF include Andy Serkis’ “Breathe” with Claire Foy and Andrew Garfield (prime Oscar bait),  “The Mountain Between Us” with Idris Elba and Kate Winslet (don’t buy it based on the trailer),  David Gordon Green’s “Stronger” with Jake Gyllenhaal and Tatiana Maslany (possible), Neil Burger’s currently untitled remake of “The Intouchables” with Bryan Cranston, Kevin Hart and Nicole Kidman (I mean, sure) and Alfonso Gomez-Rejon’s “The Current War” with Benedict Cumberbatch, Tom Holland, Michael Shannon and Katherine Waterston. The later Weinstein Company title seems like the best TIFF debut to bet on although we’re keeping an open mind on Bleecker Street’s “Breathe.”

Notably, Susanna White’s “Woman Walks Alone” with Jessica Chastain and Sam Rockwell, among others, looks like an intriguing player, but is still without U.S. distribution. It’s incredibly hard for a film to snag a Best Picture nod without a distributor before the fall festival season (the last film to do so was “Black Swan” in 2011) so if anything “Woman” could be a Best Actress play or hold for eventual release in 2018. Angela Robinson’s “Professor Martson & The Wonder Women” with Luke Evans, Rebecca Hall and Bella Heathcote is another world premiere that from the outset seems like a strict acquisitions play.

The films that will be garnering the most Best Picture attention are set for Venice and Telluride debuts. The Venice premieres that are also at Telluride are Alexander Payne’s “Downsizing” (prime grade player), Guillermo Del Toro’s “The Shape of Water” (Searchlight’s baby), Angelina Jolie’s “First They Killed My Father” (Netflix…so?), Joe Wright’s “Darkest Hour” (Is it finally “his” time or Christopher Nolan‘s?), Paul McGuigan’s “Film Stars Don’t Die In Liverpool” with Annette Bening and Jamie Bell (speaking of time, is it finally Annette’s?) and Sebastián Lelio “A Fantastic Woman” (continuing an impressive year for LGBTQ movies). Films that are only likely at Telluride include Greta Gerwig’s “Lady Bird” (another A24 contender), “Battle of the Sexes” with Steve Carell and Emma Stone (commercial, awardsy or both?), Gaël Morel’s “Catch the Wind” (a surprise) and Scott Cooper’s “Hostiles” with Christian Bale, Rosamund Pike and Jesse Plemons (looking for distribution this year?).  Based on Best Picture history, eight of the past 10 winners have played Telluride. That means unless there is a contender that skips TIFF (possible) your Best Picture winner is likely: “Downsizing,” “Darkest Hour,” “The Shape of Water,” “Lady Bird,” “Battle of the Sexes,” “Film Stars Don’t Die In Liverpool” or potentially even “Hostiles.”

With six months to go until nominations are announced ponder that statistical fact for a moment.

Granted, there are a lot more films to be added into the Venice/Telluride/Toronto mix and it’s possible even “Call Me By Your Name,” “The Florida Project” or another Cannes or Sundance debut makes its way to Colorado over Labor Day weekend.  And maybe the films just going to Venice and Toronto make the cut such as George Clooney’s “Suburbicon” (that cast and Coens pedigree), Darren Aronofsky’s “Mother!” (that Sept. 15 release date is not promising) and Martin McDonagh’s “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” (when it looks like a Telluride movie but isn’t) and Stephen Frears’ “Victoria and Abdul” (Judi Dench going for nomination no. 8).  Perhaps “Dunkirk” becomes the consensus quicker than expected and watches potential competition fall by the wayside one by one. Or maybe Steven Spielberg’s “The Papers” or “Greatest Showman” with Hugh Jackman find a way to  break the December release curse. Or Richard Linklater’s “Last Flag Flying” becomes the first New York Film Festival opener to win…ever?

Again, lots to ponder.  But the stage is set. And another race is about to begin.