Is ‘Three Billboards’ Your Stealth Best Picture Frontrunner? [Contender Countdown]

It’s the middle of October, do you know where your Academy Award frontrunner for Best Picture is?

Newsflash: no one really cares.

The aftermath of the deluge of sexual misconduct and rape accusations against Harvey Weinstein is all Hollywood is talking about these days.  Speaking to a well-placed Academy member this afternoon, they could not remember the last time so few members were aware of movies in the race or that they were “supposed” to see (and last fall featured the most consequential election in modern times).  That’s primarily because the Weinstein story is a watershed moment (hopefully) in the industry.  People are more concerned about what the industry should do next than when their screeners are going to arrive or whether they can fit a guild screening into their schedules.  Still, the season moves on, but will the Weinstein story influence the Academy’s thinking?

Yes and no.

It’s important to realize that most Academy members vote for the films or performances that emotionally affect them the most.  There are always exceptions, but that’s the case a good 90% of the time. Obviously, we’re living in a different time. There seems to be a constant battle/outcry against the actions of the current presidential administration on social media and in real life. And in many ways the entertainment industry has been thrown into the middle of Trump’s need for a non-stop culture war with or without its consent (although the sports world has it almost as bad).  At times it feels like the world has been on fire in 2017 (literally in some instances) and it would be naive to not expect these events to affect The Academy membership.

Many pundits still believe that if Steven Spielberg’s “The Post,” which chronicles the reign of Kay Graham (Meryl Streep) as publisher of the Washington Post during its fight to publish the Pentagon Papers, could speak to a nation captivated with an on going independent investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 Presidential election.  Venice Film Festival winner “The Shape of Water” speaks to a time of when minorities and those who were “different” were treated as second rate citizens (something that the administration seems intent on implementing with its current policies). Thankfully, there are also a slew of films with female filmmakers and stories that might resonate with the membership such as Patty Jenkins’ “Wonder Woman” (really), Greta Gerwig’s “Lady Bird,” Kathryn Bigelow’s “Detroit” and Dee Rees’ “Mudbound.”  And then there’s Martin McDonagh’s “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.”

The Fox Searchlight drama features powerhouse performances by Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell.  It touches on issues of racism, entitlement, police brutality and, most intriguingly, how hate besets hate in our contemporary society.  It already won the Audience Award at both the Toronto and San Sebastian Film Festivals (it also took Best Screenplay at Venice) and currently stands at no. 10 on Metacritic’s most acclaimed films of the year (to date).  “Three Billboards” is still over three weeks from its limited debut, but you hear it pop up more and more in conversations with Academy and guild members.  And there’s also the fact it opens before December, which, based on historical trends, hurts a few of the other aforementioned players.  Could it be a consensus pick? Could a passionate voter base develop around it?

There’s a long, long way to go, but don’t discount it.

Here’s your most up-to-date Contender Countdown.

Oct. 17, 2017

1. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Could it actually be the most timely of the timely movies this season?

2. “The Post”
Just waiting on a trailer. Maybe an a poster. God forbid they drop an official still.

3. “The Shape of Water”
Insanely safe, but can it go all the way?

4. “Dunkirk”
WB is about to put on the jets for another round of 70MM Q&As including one moderated by Academy member Jon Favreau (who gave the same love to “Gravity” during that player’s award season run).

5. “Get Out”
Universal is matching WB’s “don’t forget” love with a special Q&A this weekend moderated by Damon Lindelof.

6. “Call Me By Your Name”
Likely safe. Question now is whether SPC can get Luca Guadagnino a Best Director nod.

7. “The Florida Project”
Nice opening weekend and still one of the most critically acclaimed films of the year. Can A24 give this and the Scott Rudin produced “Lady Bird” equal love?

8. “The Darkest Hour”
Not convinced its not just more than Gary Oldman. Not yet anyway.

9. “Last Flag Flying”
NYFF wasn’t the best possible kickoff, but it will play to the industry.

10. “Wonder Woman”
If you think “Three Billboards” is timely…

Almost there
(In alphabetical order)

“All the Money In the World”
Is it more than a great Michelle Williams performance?

“The Big Sick”
It’s loved, but is it just too competitive this year? (And who thought we’d be saying that?)

“Blade Runner 2049”
The critical consensus is there, but will the disappointing box office storyline hurt its chances?

“The Greatest Showman”
The buzz is turning very negative on this one. 20th needs to start to turn the tide if it’s a real player.

“Lady Bird”
Everytime you meet someone who loves it you also meet someone who doesn’t. But, A24 only need that core group to get it through, right?

“Mudbound”
The opening night slot of AFI is a nice win, but still worried it can’t convince the Academy in the biggest race of all (now, Supporting Actress? Adapted Screenplay? Yes.)

“Phantom Thread”
Keep hearing its very good. And a period piece. Ya’ll knew that right?

Current predictions (updated as of Oct. 17):

Best Picture
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Director
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay