We’re not the first people to note this is a weird year for movies. Or at least it could potentially be a very weird year for the Oscars – who have a strong, but strangely uncommercial crop of movies to choose from (or at least it’s weird from the outset, watch this thesis fall apart shortly). Ostensibly anyhow.
Basically, so far at least, it’s looking like they only have actually good movies to choose from. Or at least films that people us like (“There Will Be Blood,” “No Country For Old Men,” “Persepolis,” etc.) have generated very strong buzz and critical kudos and awards being shot at them.
Oscar can ignore the buzz, it’s not that they haven’t in the past, but seriously are things like “Charlie Wilson’s War,” “In The Valley of Elah?” and other more mainstream studio fare going to get nominated? We’re sort of repeating ourselves here from our original Oscar Temperature preview, but not a lot has drastically changed. But let’s not forget, no matter the buzz, Oscar voters are a super conservative and mainstream bunch.
Some films have become hotter while others have cooled off. However, today the Broadcast Film Critics Association gave out their nominations and the game has changed. As Reuters has noted the conservative BFCA is a strong bellwether for the Oscars.
What rounded out the Best Picture nominations? “American Gangster,” “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” “The Kite Runner,” “Atonement,” “Michael Clayton,” “No Country for Old Men,” “Sweeney Todd” “Juno” and “There Will Be Blood” (apparently they nominate everything for Best Picture) Surprising, but not. Don’t forget Golden Globe nominations come out on Thursday and the game will change once more.
Here’s a look at some past contenders of this year and how things have shifted for them.
“I’m Not There” – While the Dylan quasi-opic did do well with critics, it didn’t seem to penetrate further than the indie movie ghetto of the Independent Spirit Awards (which it will probably clean up or do well at). It doesn’t help that the film hasn’t had a strong box office showing. Might get screenplay and nom for Cate Blanchett, but don’t look for more than that (maybe cinematography).
“American Gangster” – Was met with positive, but semi-lukewarm reviews. However, this Critics Choice Best Picture nod gives it legs again. So commercial though it’ll probably gain major nods (but it shouldn’t, it was kind of eh).
“Micheal Clayton” – After very positive reception, this film had totally cooled off, but today’s BFCA noms give it a boost. Clooney and Wilkinson will both likely grab acting nods. It also might just be close-enough-to a studio picture (it’s a indie studio film) that it might stick in Oscar voters minds (plus everyone knows Clooney).
“Atonement” – You don’t need to be an expert prognosticator to figure that its sweeping classicism is straight-up Oscar’s alley. Best Picture nod is almost a lock even if the reviews are mediocre (which they’re not). The little girl will probably get a Supporting nod too.
“There Will Be Blood” – It’s about as red hot as it can get. It just scored major awards from the Los Angeles Film Critics Association, including Best Picture and Best Director. This is where the coming out late in the season strategy works.
“No Country For Old Men” – Also red hot. It scored most of the major awards from the New York Critics Circle. It’s BFCA Best Picture nods only help. Right now the Oscars are a two-man race between ‘Country’ and ‘Blood,’ but they’re both dark pictures and Oscar is not a fan of downers. Noms yes, wins? Could be doubtful.
“Juno” – Despite doing well at the Toronto Film Festival and Rome Film Festival, reviews are/were looking like B-grades, not A’s and it wasn’t grabbing a ton of noticeable awards. This week it’s big chorus seemed to be cooling. however, again, six BFCA nominations. With strong box office take, it’s firing on all cylinders once again. It took about a 6-minute dip.
“Persepolis” and “The Butterfly & The Diving Bell” don’t have roaring commercial appeal, but both of them have solid buzz and solid critical praise. ‘Diving Bell’ is apparently disqualified for Best Foreign Film, but “Persepolis” will probably grab a Foreign nomination (‘Diving Bell’ fully deserves a Best Picture nomination, whether Academy members vote this off the mainstream path remains to be seen).
“Into The Wild” – Once thought forgotten, the film just picked up a big bump today as it scored the highest number of nominations from the Broadcast Film Critics Association including Best Picture, Best Director and Best Actor, seven nods in total. It has lots of mainstream appeal; consider it officially back in the race (we thought it was kind of overrated).
“Margot At The Wedding” – We loved it, but no one else really did, not even the ISA‘s really. At best it has hopes for screenplay and Jennifer Jason Leigh. At this point, unless a miracle happens, that’s it.
“Sweeney Todd” – See our piece from yesterday, everyone seems to love this thing, despite it being based on the wretched, obtuse music of Stephen Sondheim. It seems to be favored for lots of Oscar nominations. We still haven’t seen it yet, but we’re skeptical.
“The Assassination of Jesse James” – Having scored excellent reviews for Brad Pitt and Casey Affleck’s performances, not to mention a stunning score and cinematography, plus big wins at the Venice Film Festival, this film has been all but forgotten at this point.
“Lust Caution” – Won the top prize at the Venice Film Festival, but it’s NC17 rating has doomed it’s chances in the U.S., there’s been some talk of a nomination for its stars, Tang Wei and Tony Leung, but their Oscar hopes are dying. Let’s not forget that Venice lost all its cred this year after it gave Best Director to Brian DePalma for his worthless shitbomb “Redacted.”
Julie Christie – The accolades can’t be any hotter for her this year while earlier it was just solid praise that many assumed would be dead by now. Her performance in “Away From Her” has scored her tons of awards and nominations. At this point she should be a lock for an Oscar nom.
All of these gauges will either rise or fall once Thursday’s Golden Globes noms are announced. Last year the winner of the BFCA Best Picture And Best Director award was “The Departed” and Martin Scorsese – the same film/director that won the same Oscar categories.
Broadcast Film Critics Association 2007 Nominees
Best Picture
American Gangster
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
Juno
The Kite Runner
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood
Best Actor
George Clooney – Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp – Sweeney Todd
Ryan Gosling – Lars and the Real Girl
Emile Hirsch – Into the Wild
Viggo Mortensen – Eastern Promises
Best Actress
Amy Adams – Enchanted
Cate Blanchett – Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie – Away From Her
Marion Cotillard – La Vie en Rose
Angelina Jolie – A Mighty Heart
Ellen Page – Juno
Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck – The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem – No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman – Charlie Wilson’s War
Hal Holbrook – Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson – Michael Clayton
Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett – I’m Not There
Catherine Keener – Into the Wild
Vanessa Redgrave – Atonement
Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton – Michael Clayton
Best Acting Ensemble
Hairspray
Juno
No Country for Old Men
Sweeney Todd
Gone Baby Gone
Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
Best Director
Tim Burton – Sweeney Todd
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen – No Country for Old Men
Sidney Lumet – Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
Sean Penn – Into the Wild
Julian Schnabel – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Joe Wright – Atonement
Best Writer
Diablo Cody – Juno
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen – No Country for Old Men
Tony Gilroy – Michael Clayton
Nancy Oliver – Lars and the Real Girl
Sean Penn – Into the Wild
Aaron Sorkin – Charlie Wilson’s War
Do film critics know anything at all? Of course they do. Or at least lots of them do (disregard most movie blogs, Aint It Cool, and any site that uses amateur and over-enthusiastic exclamation marks all the time – AICN).
However, Time magazine crybaby Richard Corlis tends to think film critics only like, dark and difficult films and has the gall to whine that the Best Actress award (Julie Christie) from the NYFilm Critics award from “Away From Her” from her only earned an meager “$5 million dollars.”
Christ, since when did making box office dollars become synonymous with quality? This scumbag is the exact type critical scourge that needs to be wiped off the face of the planet. Feel free to send him hatemail (dogshit) to his office.
“I didn’t even tell (my co-workers) that the very popular, and very good, Pixar cartoon “Ratatouille” lost out to a French movie about the troubles in Iran,” he wrote perplexed. Wow, how could a movie about the troubles in Iran (of all fucking places) beat out the fun-filled Pixar magic, huh?
What a loathsome character. The worst part about it all? So he scolds critics for being too elitist and snooty and then his own Top 10 of 2007 is basically the fucking same with “No Country For Old Men” at number 1 and obscure (but excellent) fare like “Killer of Sheep” and “The Lives Of Others” also on his list. What a hypocritical dipshit.
