BEST DIRECTOR
Todd Field, Tár
Kogonada, After Yang
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Halina Reijn, Bodies Bodies Bodies
Who will win: The Daniels
Who should win: The Daniels, Todd Field
Upset: Todd Field
Lowdown: The Daniels are the likely winners for “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” but “Tar” was popular with the Film Independent voting base and they may just want to find a place to reward it. Handing Todd Field the Best Director prize would fit that bill.
BEST SCREENPLAY
Lena Dunham, Catherine Called Birdy
Todd Field, Tár
Kogonada, After Yang
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Who will win: The Daniels
Who should win: Kogonada
Upset: Sarah Polley, Todd Field
Lowdown: Again, a situation where The Daniels should easily take it based on the popularity of “Everything Everywhere” at once, but “Tar’s” Todd Field and “Women Talking’s” Sarah Polley are lurking (deservedly) as potential upset winners.
BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY
Joel Kim Booster, Fire Island
Jamie Dack, Audrey Findlay, Story by Jamie Dack, Palm Trees and Power Lines
K.D. Dávila, Emergency
Sarah DeLappe, Story by Kristen Roupenian, Bodies Bodies Bodies
John Patton Ford. Emily the Criminal
Who will win: John Patton Ford
Who should win: John Patton Ford
Upset: Joel Kim Booster
Lowdown: Patton Ford and “Emily the Criminal” benefit from their film being a Netflix streaming hit.
BEST LEAD PERFORMANCE
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Dale Dickey, A Love Song
Mia Goth, Pearl
Regina Hall, Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Aubrey Plaza, Emily the Criminal
Jeremy Pope, The Inspection
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Taylor Russell, Bones and All
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Who will win: Michelle Yeoh
Who should win: Any of them
Upset: Aubrey Plaza, Cate Blanchett, Paul Mescal
Lowdown: There are some indie darlings in this mix that could spell trouble for expected winner Michelle Yeoh. That being said, it’s going to be an “Everything Everywhere” afternoon so Yeoh should be the easy frontrunner here.
BEST SUPPORTING PERFORMANCE
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Nina Hoss, Tár
Brian d’Arcy James, The Cathedral
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Trevante Rhodes, Bruiser
Theo Rossi, Emily the Criminal
Mark Rylance, Bones and All
Jonathan Tucker, Palm Trees and Power Lines
Gabrielle Union, The Inspection
Who will win: Ke Huy Quan
Who should win: Brian Tyree Henry
Upset: Jamie Lee Curtis, Brian Tyree Henry, Mark Rylance
Lowdown: Will Jamie Lee Curtis and Key Huy Quan split the vote? If so, look for Brian Tyree Henry or Mark Rylance to potentially crash the party.
BEST BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE
Frankie Corio, Aftersun
Gracija Filipović, Murina
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Lily McInerny, Palm Trees and Power Lines
Daniel Zolghadri, Funny Pages
Who will win: Stephane Hsu
Who should win: Stephane Hsu
Upset: Frankie Corio
Lowdown: Again, “Everything Everywhere” trumps the other nominees here which means Stephanie Hsu takes home a trophy.
BEST EDITING
Ricky D’Ambrose, The Cathedral
Blair McClendon, Aftersun
Dean Fleischer Camp, Nick Paley, Marcell the Shell with Shoes On
Paul Rogers, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Monika Willi, Tar
Who will win: Paul Rogers
Who should win: Monika Willi
Upset: Dean Fleischer Camp, Nick Paley
Lowdown: Paul Rogers should ride the “Everything Everywhere” train to a win here, but it wouldn’t be that shocking if its A24 stablemate, “Marcell The Shell with Shoes On,” was recognized by the voting body instead.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Florian Hoffmeister, Tar
Helene Louvar, Murina
Gregory Oke, Aftersun
Eliot Rockett, Pearl
Anisia Uzeyman, Neptune’s Daughter
Who will win: Florian Hoffmeister
Who should win: Florian Hoffmeister
Upset: Eliot Rockett
Lowdown: “Pearl” outperformed “Tar” at the U.S. box office but the latter is the more traditional “prestige” picture and should come out on top. Maybe.
BEST NEW SCRIPTED SERIES
The Bear
Pachinko
The Porter
Severance
Station Eleven
Who will win: The Bear
Who should win: Severance, Station Eleven
Upset: Severance
Lowdown: “The Bear” was a massive hit for FX. When it took the PGA Award for Best Comedy it showed its industry popularity and fits into the “indie” mystique of the Spirit Awards (it’s also really a drama with some comedy which helps with Film Independent voters). That being said, “Severance” has already racked up a ton of Emmy and guild nominations following its first season. It could, in theory, pull this one out as well.
BEST NEW NON-SCRIPTED OR DOCUMENTARY SERIES
Children of the Underground
Mind Over Murder
Pepsi, Where’s My Jet?
The Rehearsal
We Need To Talk About Cosby
Who will win: The Rehearsal
Who should win: We Need To Talk About Cosby
Upset: Pepsi, Where’s My Jet?
Lowdown: Emmy-winner “We Need To Talk About Cosby” should be the easy winner here, but more members arguably saw “Pepsi, Where’s My Jet?” on Netflix. The middle ground is “The Rehearsal,” a buzzworthy HBO series that fits into the supposed Film Independent zeitgeist.
BEST LEAD PERFORMANCE
Aml Ameen, The Porter
Mohmmed Amer, Mo
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Bridget Everett, Somebody Somewhere
Kamillion, Rap Sh!t
Melanie Lynskey, Yellowjackets
Himesh Patel, Station Eleven
Sue Ann Pien, As We See It
Adam Scott, Severance
Ben Whishaw, This Is Going To Hurt
Who will win: Melanie Lynskey
Who should win: Ben Whishaw, Bridget Everett
Upset: Quinta Brunson
Lowdown: The “Abbott Elementary” star and creator could potentially win here, but our guess is the Film Independent membership goes in a more dramatic direction when voting on this award. That means Melanie Lynskey, who is an indie film world favorite.
BEST SUPPORTING PERFORMANCE
Danielle Deadwyler, Station Eleven
Ayo Edebiri, The Bear
Jeff Hiller, Somebody Somewhere
Gbemisola Ikumelo, A League of Their Own
Janelle James, Abbott Elementary
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear
Frankie Quiñones, This Fool
Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary
Molly Shannon, I Love That For You
Tramell Tillman, Severance
Who will win: Ayo Edebiri
Who should win: Ayo Edebiri, Jeff Hiller, Molly Shannon,
Upset: Janelle James, Sheryl Lee Ralph
Lowdown: The voters likely know her character, but do they know her name? That’s the million-dollar question when it comes down to whether Ayo Edebiri will win this category for her role in “The Bear.” If she doesn’t win, either of the two “Abbott” stars could take it although, again, we’re not so sure if the voting block will embrace a network studio comedy.
The 2023 Film Independent Spirit Awards will be held on Saturday, March 4 at 2:00 pm PST and streamed live on IMDb’s YouTube channel, as well as Film Independent’s YouTube and Twitter accounts
