Still with us? Are you still invested in this year’s never-ending pandemic delayed Oscar race? If so, your attention is certainly appreciated. We’re also guessing that if you are still engaged you’re probably wondering, “Can anyone win Best Picture besides ‘Nomadland?'” Or, maybe you’re not because you know it’s a masterpiece and why would anyone vote for any of the other contenders anyway? Maybe you’re much more intrigued by the insane Best Actress race. Don’t worry, we’ll get to that one in a second.
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At this point, it goes without saying that if “Nomadland” lost Best Picture it would be one of the biggest upsets in Academy Awards history. Chloe Zhao’s acclaimed drama has won the PGA Award, the DGA Award, and the BAFTA Award for Best Film. And the last film to take those three honors and not win Best Picture? “1917.” Oh, wait, that was, um, last year, wasn’t it? Well, what a difference a year makes.
Frankly, the similarities between 2020 and 2021 are fewer than they seem because Sam Mendes’ epic had one major Achilles heel: no acting nominations. Not only did “1917” earn zero nominations at the SAG Awards but it went without one acting nomination when the Oscars came around a month or so later (remember, the acting branch is made up completely of SAG members and is the biggest branch of the Academy). That’s why, in hindsight, “Parasite” winning Best Picture was really only a shock because a film primarily in another language had never taken Oscar’s top prize before. Comparatively, the Bong Joon Ho thriller had won every major critic’s honor and every International Film or Foreign Language film nomination it was up for. Still, “Parasite” took the SAG award for Ensemble which has some “Nomadland” naysayers (conveniently mostly men) suggesting that this year’s Ensemble champion, “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” could win instead. I mean, sure, but that would be a bigger shock than “Green Book” winning over “Roma” (which wasn’t a surprise either).
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Unlike “1917,” “Nomadland” actually has evidence of not only the actor’s branch but SAG support as well. Best Actress nominee Frances McDormand earned a SAG nomination and won the BAFTA Award this past weekend (BAFTA has a significant number of voters who are also members of The Academy). McDormand also has a chance to win her third trophy on Oscar night. And, yes, awards watchers are aware that the BAFTA Film winner hasn’t matched up to the Academy’s Best Picture winner since “12 Years A Slave.” Conversely, for “Trial” to win the Oscar it would be just the sixth film in history to triumph without a Best Director nomination. And the last two that pulled that off, “Green Book” and “Argo,” both won the PGA Award which, again, “Trial” has not.
Frankly, if you’re looking for an upset, it’s likely “Minari.” Lee Isaac Chung’s drama may be missing a key Oscar nomination for editing, but it has Directing, Original Screenplay, and two acting nods. More importantly, it has the “heart” that “Trial” doesn’t. Of course, “Nomadland” has that same heart to many voters too, but if we’re playing with theoretical scenarios that’s the landscape to consider. And, lastly, in the ranked Oscar voting system for Best Picture, do you really think “Trial” is a majority of voters’ second choice? Or their third choice? Really?
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As we alluded to earlier, the big question mark hangs over Best Actress. A category that is now confounding even the most seasoned Oscar observers and consultants. So far this year, a different actress has won every single “major” honor. However, only two of those awards are truly industry bellwether and we’re gonna be kind and say the third has legitimate public relations value. The fourth? Um, you’ll figure it out as we take a quick look at the statistical landscape for each nominee
Carey Mulligan, “Promising Young Woman”
Now a two-time nominee, Mulligan took a number of key critics group prizes as well as, ahem, sorry have to clear my through to type this…the “Critics Choice” award. Despite the fact she was snubbed by BAFTA (eye-brow raising since “Promising” earned six nominations), many still think she could win the Academy Award. Will her hosting “SNL” last weekend be a good luck charm? Will she benefit from a split vote with Viola Davis and McDormand? Maybe?
Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Already a winner in the Supporting Actress category for “Fences,” Davis has three major trends going for her. First, she took the SAG Award in the same field of nominees except Day. Over the past decade, only two SAG winners have not gone on to take the Best Actress honor in this category, Davis for “The Help” and Glenn Close for “The Wife.” Second, Davis arguably has the most transformative performance of the five. Not only do actors love to reward that, but so do Academy members. Recent examples including Renée Zellweger in “Judy,” Joaquin Phoenix in “Joker,” Rami Malek in “Bohemian Rhapsody,” Gary Oldman in “Darkest Hour” and Allison Janey in “I, Tonya“. Third, and certainly a minor consideration, the fact Davis still isn’t a member of the two-time winner club. That certainly needs to change sooner rather than later.
Frances McDormand, “Nomadland”
Already a two-time winner, McDormand won the BAFTA Award this past weekend. It’s important to note, though, that Davis, Day, and Mulligan were not nominated alongside her. What could help McDormand’s candidacy is a surge of overall love for “Nomadland.” Yes, there are voters who just check off as many categories as they can for a film they love. And, like almost every nominee in this category, McDormand may benefit from a split vote.
Andra Day, “The United States vs. Billie Holiday”
The first-timer stunned many by taking the Golden Globe at the end of February. That win also likely propelled her to solidify her landing in the fifth slot and earning an Oscar nomination. Of course, only 80 or so members were voting for the Golden Globe and the assumption, whether true or not, is that Day benefited from a split among McDormand, Davis, and Mulligan by the HFPA. Now, there are about 8,9000 more voters at play with The Academy, but there’s no reason it couldn’t happen again.
Vanessa Kirby, “Pieces of a Woman”
The only nominee sadly on the outside looking in. Winning the Venice Film Festival prize and getting her first Oscar nomination isn’t a bad consolation prize.
Has that made your Best Actress pick easier? Probably not, but at least one category will generate genuine tension during the telecast.
Keeping all this in mind, here’s a look at the state of the Best Picture race as we reveal the Contender Countdown for April 13, 2021.
1 “Nomadland”
I mean, if we’re keeping predictive stats, it technically did have a Telluride screening.
2 “Trial of the Chicago 7”
Name the last Best Picture winner that went win-less at BAFTA. I’ll wait. Now that you figured it out, are those films on the same playing field?
3 “Minari”
Taking Ensemble at SAG would have solidified its Best Picture hopes, but the good news is Youn Yuh-Jung keeps winning where it counts.
4 “Promising Young Woman”
Emerald Fennell looking strong in a very competitive Original Screenplay category.
5 “The Father”
After surprising at BAFTA could Anthony Hopkins upset Chadwick Boseman for Best Actor? If that happens I’m not logging into social media for at least a week.
6 “Sound of Metal”
Editing and Sound are a given. Anything else would be gravy.
7 “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Daniel Kaluuya looks like a lock for Supporting Actor. The bigger question is whether H.E.R. can surprise in Original Song.
8 “Mank”
At a minimum, it’s winning Production Design. That’s at least something, right?
