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Premature Oscar Predictions: The 2015 Best Actress Contenders

Premature Predictions: Actresses, 2015

You know the deal by this point, so we’ll get to it as quickly as we can. Every year, to draw a line under the awards season, we take a moment to look ahead at some of the possibilities for the films and performances that we could be talking about in the context of the Oscar race in the eleven months to come. We’ve already discussed the Best Picture and Best Actor possibilities, and now, we’ve picked out some potentials to succeed Cate Blanchett as the winner of the Best Actress Academy Award.

Last year, we did middlingly: we called Meryl Streep and Sandra Bullock correctly, and highlighted Judi Dench in “Philomena” long before many were aware of the film, but we severely underrated Blanchett, and mostly disregarded Amy Adams. Plus, we picked Naomi Watts in “Diana” as a potential, and look how that turned out… You can see if we’ll do any better this year below, and argue about our picks in the comments section.

The Top 5

Amy Adams

Amy Adams (“Big Eyes”)
Though she managed her first Best Actress nomination for “American Hustle” after four Supporting nods (in less than a decade), and despite some late momentum, Amy Adams failed to win her first Oscar this year, unable to overcome the Cate Blanchett juggernaut. But that means that the star is increasingly seen as being due, and that would be a powerful force even if her next role didn’t seem like it would be an attention-grabber of its own accord. In “Big Eyes,” directed by Tim Burton, Adams will play Margaret Keane, whose distinctive paintings were appropriated by her husband Walter (Christoph Waltz), leading to the collapse of their marriage, and a courtroom battle that saw Walter claim she was crazy. It sounds like the kind of downtrodden wife-to-independent woman arc that Adams will do beautifully, and though Burton hasn’t been awards-friendly for a long time, this project sees him reunite with the writers of “Ed Wood,” which won Martin Landau an Oscar. Whispers are that Adams is terrific in the film (unsurprisingly), and she can’t keep missing out forever, so she definitely seems like a force to reckon with in 2014.

Suite Francaise

Michelle Williams (“Suite Francaise”)
Speaking of being due, there’s Michelle Williams. The “Dawson’s Creek” star has turned out to be one of the very best actresses of her generation, and has picked up three nods while still being barely into her thirties, and that’s without taking into account films like “Wendy And Lucy” and “Take This Waltz,” which deserved to fare better with the Academy than they ultimately did. She’s teamed up again with The Weinstein Company, who earned her a nod for “My Week With Marilyn” a few years back, for the literary adaptation “Suite Francaise,” and it promises to be potent territory, playing Lucille, a woman in occupied France who begins an affair with the German soldier who’s taken over her village. Moral issues, World War II and having missed out a number of times worked out nicely for Kate Winslet in “The Reader” a few years back, and unless this misfires in a way that some of the films on the Weinstein’s slate did this year (and it’s worth noting that even “August: Osage County” received two acting nods), we could well see Williams in there, especially as she seems to be incapable of giving a bad performance.

Gone Girl

Rosamund Pike (“Gone Girl”)
As with “The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo” a few years back, few roles of note recently have been more sought after than that of Amy Dunne in David Fincher‘s adaptation of thriller phenomenon “Gone Girl.” It might sound from the title alone, to the uninitiated, that Rosamund Pike won’t be in the film much, but a flashback-heavy structure means she’s essentially a co-lead, and she’ll certainly be present in the category. And unless Fincher’s casting instincts have completely abandoned him, we could well see Pike following in the footsteps of Brad Pitt, Jesse Eisenberg and Rooney Mara, the leads in Fincher’s last three pictures, to a nomination. It’s a complex, multi-faceted part, and one that should give Pike a huge boost going forward. It’s yet to be seen if the film proves to be awards-friendly, but for now there’s every reason to think that the actress will be in the game this year.

Wild Reese Witherspoon

Reese Witherspoon (“Wild”)
It’s getting on nine years since Reese Witherspoon won her Best Actress Oscar for “Walk The Line,” and it’s not been the best nine years of her career. There’s been the occasional hit—well, one, “Four Christmases“—but more films along the lines of “Rendition,” “How Do You Know” and “This Means War.” However Witherspoon’s definitely on the comeback trail, working with some top auteurs between last year’s “Mud,” and this year’s “Inherent Vice,” but her best shot at another nomination since the Johnny Cash picture comes with “Wild,” the based-in-fact story of a woman who, after the death of her mother and the break-up of marriage, treks over a thousand miles across the Pacific Northwest. It sounds like it’ll be something of a one-woman show (which has worked out well for James Franco and Sandra Bullock in recent years), and Jean-Marc Vallee, whose “Dallas Buyers Club” won two acting Oscars this year, is helming. The film looks to be one of Fox Searchlight‘s big prospects for the season, so definitely keep an eye on Witherspoon in the months to come.

A Most Violent Year

Jessica Chastain (“A Most Violent Year”/”The Disappearance Of Eleanor Rigby”)
It feels like it was only yesterday that Jessica Chastain turned up on the scene, and already she’s had two nominations (for “The Help” and “Zero Dark Thirty“), and gives the impression of someone who’s already a fixture in the front row of the Oscars. This time around, she’s got not just one, but two chances for a nod. First up, her performance in three-hour, two-part relationship epic “The Disappearance Of Eleanor Rigby” won raves when the film premiered at TIFF, and was picked up by The Weinstein Company, presumably to add to their awards slate. And though it’s a fairly modest indie, and doesn’t sound like a prime Oscar contender, neither did “Blue Valentine” at the time, but Weinsteins worked hard to get Michelle Williams a nomination a few years back. Even so, there’s a back-up plan for Chastain: J.C. Chandor‘s “A Most Violent Year,” in which she stars alongside Oscar Isaaac. She could yet end up in Supporting rather than Lead, but if not, given her usual form, Chandor’s track record, and the exciting-sounding material, it would be a role to bet on.

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The Next 5

Hilary Swank (“The Homesman”)
Hilary Swank
‘s career is, quite frankly, a puzzling one. After she won her first Oscar, for “Boys Don’t Cry,” Swank let her star fade a little for the five following years after a series of misses like “The Affair Of The Necklace” and “The Core,” only to return and win a second Oscar for “Million Dollar Baby.” The decade or so since has again proved mostly disappointing, with a couple of Oscar possibilities falling short (“Amelia” and “Conviction“), but this year brings her most serious proposition for a while: she’s co-starring with Tommy Lee Jones in the actor/director’s eagerly-awaited big-screen follow-up to his excellent directorial debut “The Three Burials Of Melquiades Estrada.” The pair play a mismatched duo who team up to escort three insane woman from Nebraska to Iowa, and among a strong cast of actresses that includes Hailee Steinfeld, Miranda Otto and Meryl Streep, Swank has the female lead. This doesn’t have a U.S. distributor yet, and ‘Burials’ didn’t tick too many awards boxes, but this could be a dark horse to keep an eye on.

Rooney Mara

Cate Blanchett/Rooney Mara (“Carol”)
It’s taken a little while for Todd Haynes‘ work to become awards-friendly, but the filmmaker has actually become reasonably reliable recently—his last two theatrical features, “Far From Heaven” and “I’m Not There,” earned nods for Julianne Moore and Cate Blanchett, and his most recent work, HBO miniseries “Mildred Pierce,” scored a record-breaking 21 Emmy nominations, and prizes for actors Kate Winslet and Guy Pearce. So the news that he’s returning to the big-screen, and reteaming with Blanchett for this adaptation of Patricia Highsmith‘s “Carol,” certainly makes it one to watch out for. Blanchett’s always worth paying attention to, but co-star Rooney Mara is becoming as consistently excellent as Blanchett, and might be the one to watch out for this film. That’s assuming: 1) it hits theaters this year (production only just started) and 2) Mara isn’t dropped to supporting in an eventual campaign. But however it shakes out, it’s not unthinkable that it’ll figure in somewhere.

Grace Of Monaco

Nicole Kidman (“Grace Of Monaco”/”Queen Of The Desert”)
Given her track record, if Nicole Kidman has a movie out, she’s going to be in the awards conversation, and the actress has two films on the way that feel like solid possibilities. First up is Cannes opener “Grace Of Monaco,” in which Kidman plays Grace Kelly in a Weinstein Company-distributed film directed by Olivier Dahan, whose “La Vie En Rose” won Best Actress for Marion Cotillard. You see why it’s a possibility? In fact, one of the few reasons we didn’t put it in the top 5 is that the film was yanked from last year’s awards season amid rumors of clashes between Weinstein and Dahan, and will be rolling out in much of the rest of the world not long after Cannes (it opens in Europe in late May/early June, though has no U.S. date yet), suggesting it may not be getting the kind of push we initially assumed. But even if that doesn’t work out, Kidman has a possible back up: she just wrapped on Werner Herzog‘s “Queen of The Desert,” about explorer Gertrude Bell. Obviously Herzog has never been a major force with the Oscars, but this sounds more suitable for awards recognition than most of his output. The major stumbling block might at this point be that, without a U.S. distributor, it’ll need to find one who then have enough time to put together a campaign. Don’t discount the possibility, though.

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Berenice Bejo (“The Search”)
Berenice Bejo scorching, Cannes-winning turn in “The Past“—unfairly overlooked by the Academy this year—proved she was more than just a silent starlet. But Bejo has another chance—she’s working with husband and “The Artist” director Michel Hazavanicius, on his remake of Fred Zinnemann‘s “The Search,” in which she plays an NGO employee who helps a young Chechen boy search for his mother. It sounds like potentially tear-jerking fare, and Bejo certainly has the chops for it. It may be that she fits into the supporting category rather than leading again, and it’s also feasible that the film turns out to be Hazavancius’ equivalent to Roberto Benigni‘s “Pinocchio.” But if Bejo gets Cannes buzz again (the film’s rumored to premiere there), the English-language nature of the film makes it more likely than “The Past” to land her a second nomination.

Carey Mulligan

Carey Mulligan (“Suffragette”)
We feel like “Suffragette” had been rather under the radar as an awards possibility, and then Meryl Streep signed on. But it’s not Streep that’s likely to be leading the awards run on this—her part is essentially a cameo—instead, it’s Carey Mulligan who has the lead role, as a young woman who becomes involved in the fight to get women the vote in England. Mulligan’s done so much good work since breaking through in “An Education” that it’s almost surprising that she’s still only been nominated for that film, but given the subject matter, this seems to give her best chance at a repeat (though Thomas Vinterberg‘s “Far From The Madding Crowd” is also a possibility, though it’s tougher material). It doesn’t yet have an American distributor, but it’s already set for a U.K. release in early January, so definitely keep this on your list of potentials.

Honorable Mentions: There’s plenty more where that came from, of course. With three nominations in four years, Jennifer Lawrence has practically moved into the Dolby Theater, so it’s certainly worth considering almost anything she does (probably not “X-Men: Days Of Future Past,” though). Coming up, Lawrence has a reteam with Bradley Cooper on Susanne Bier‘s period drama “Serena,” which would feel like a major contender, except word on the street has been a bit dicey on the long-delayed project (which shot before “American Hustle“). Don’t disregard it, but don’t bet the farm on it yet either. Another film that’s had difficult buzz is “Jane Got A Gun,” but if it works, Natalie Portman could get another nod for it.

One definite possibility is Helen Mirren in “The Hundred Foot Journey“—Lasse Hallstrom isn’t quite the force he used to be with the Oscars, but with Mirren, and the story of an Indian family opening a restaurant in France, it could be a surprise, and Mirren’s certainly one to keep an eye on. Marion Cotillard, as Michael Fassbender‘s Lady Macbeth, is also possible, but as we’ve said previously, it’s a long, long time since anyone was nominated for an Oscar for playing a Shakespeare character. Other to keep an eye include Anne Hathaway in “Interstellar“; Tina Fey in “This Is Where I Leave You” and Emma Stone in Cameron Crowe‘s latest, while Emily Blunt in “Into The Woods” and Naomi Watts in “While We’re Young” are also valid options if they go for lead, rather than supporting.

Read all our Premature Predictions pieces here.

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52 COMMENTS

  1. I really hope Marion Cotillard gets her second Oscar this time around. In the history of mankind, there has never been an actor, male or female, more talented than Marion Cotillard. I mean, let's face it, she's the best actress of all time and it's literally inconceivable how she hasn't won her second Oscar yet. If any of the members of the Academy reads this, please, I beg you: give Marion Cotillard her second Oscar in 2015. I don't care if it is in a Leading Role or in a Supporting Role. I don't care if it is for "The Immigrant" or "Two days, one night" or "Macbeth" or "Blood ties". What matters is that an Oscar should have her name engraved on it at the 87th Annual Academy Awards. The work she's done this year is just exquisite. And she wasn't even nominated for "Rust and bone" (!) or "Nine". In fact, she has never been nominated since winning the Oscar for Best Actress In A Leading Role back in 2008 for her towering performance in "La vie en rose". Her performance as Ewa Cybulska in James Gray's "The immigrant" is more than worthy of an Oscar win. It's irrationally impeccable. I can't even realize how an actor can deliver a performance like that. Please, members of the Academy, please, give her a second Oscar in 2015. I'm not a relative of hers or a rep of hers or whatever crap one might think reading this post, but I'm a movies lover by birth and I know this: Leaving the best actress of all time with only one win and not even a single nomination since, despite the fact that everything she has done since is worthy of an Oscar win, feels just insane to me. Totally insane. I can't even imagine how on Earth she can't be nominated in Oscars 2015. Just give her her second Oscar. She absolutely deserves it. She has been robbed so many times. SO MANY TIMES. And she still continues to push herself into extremely brave, raw and unforgettable performances in a series of almost unbelievably demanding roles. Please, give her her second Oscar, please!

  2. Jennifer Lawrence is an exceptional actress and anyone who says she's crappy is completely and utterly delusional! It's like someone saying Adele or Mariah Carey can't sing, it's seriously that deluded, because JLaw is the next Meryl Streep, she is one of the best young actor/actress in America, undoubtedly. I wouldn't cross out her role in Mockingjay, Katniss, suffering from post-tramuatic stress, becomes very, very intense, suicidal, depressed, angry, dark and unstable in the last Hunger Games book, she could be Oscar gold. And as for Serena, I've heard JLaw is supposed to have given a terrifying performance and the director's supposed to be a fantastic one, plus she's starring alongside Bradley Cooper and that usually means it's going to sweep the award season… And Nicole Kidman in the Grace of Monaco?! You can forget it, that was even worse than Diana, that other disaster about a princess! Nicole's a terrific actress, but that was supposed to be another shit, badly acted biopic.

  3. Besides Macbeth, where's Marion Cotillard for 'The Immigrant' and 'Two Days, One Night'?
    And Kate Winslet for 'A Little Chaos'?

    If Amy Adams get another nomination, it will be a joke! she is no Kate Winslet who deserved all of her nominations before she won her Oscar! Adams is nominated every year for doing nothing in forgettable roles! she is just lucky that the academy members are her fanboys and nominate her for every crap she does!, until now she only has piggyback nominations: she can't carry a film and needs to be part of an acclaimed movie (most of the time with a small role and little screentime) with more talented and more famous co-stars (who will overshadow her) to get an undeserved nomination just to fill the spot. And early reports say that she is totally overshadowed by Christoph Waltz (this is not exactly a surprise!) in Big Eyes! she has no chance against him and I really hope that she won't take the spot of another better actress again like happened this year with Emma Thompson!

  4. JENNIFER LAWRENCE – SERENA all the way!!! I think that considering her age and limited experience she has , she is the one of the best actresses I've ever seen…she destroys the screen!!!

  5. If the Oscars were all about rewarding talent, Jennifer Lawrence should win every year…But unfortunately they are all about politics and making the politically correct choices in an attempt to look a bit less stupid…

  6. oops…that was Patricia Arquette for Richard Linklater's 12 years in the making "Boyhood". The critics have gone gaga for this film and rightfully so. I have not read a review where she has been called anything less than amazing and the best performance of her career. She will be getting nominated. Lead or supporting? That is the question.

  7. I hope The Salvation gets a proper attention at this year's Cannes. I've been hearing that Eva Green's mute performance in it is A+. It's going to be released on October and I hope the studio pushes for her. She could be a dark horse.

  8. You should also consider A Little Chaos, directed by Alan Rickman, and its spectacular cast: Kate Winslet, Alan Rickman, Stanley Tucci, Jennifer Ehle, Helen McCrory and Mathias Schoenaerts.

  9. TOP 10 (No order):
    – Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
    – Anne Hathaway (Interstellar)
    – Amy Adams (Big Eyes)
    – Rachel McAdams (A Most Wanted Man)
    – Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)
    – Michelle Williams (Suite Francaise)
    – Hilary Swank (The Homesman)
    – Marion Cotillard (The Immigrant)
    – Natalie Portman (Jane Got a Gun)
    – Nicole Kidman (Grace of Monaco)

  10. But Meryl Streep is always pushed for lead. The Devil Wears Prada was arguably a supporting role as the film was not solely about her, she was still technically lead. She could be nominated for either of her films this year.

    Meryl Streep, Into The Woods, The Giver, Suffragette or The Homesman
    Jennifer Lawrence, Serena
    Amy Adams, Big Eyes
    Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco
    Reese Witherspoon, Wild

  11. I'm tipping Chastain's best actress bid will be for Miss Julie, and A Most Violent Year will end up being supporting. Eleanor Rigby could surprise though…
    My current top 5
    1. Adams
    2. Williams
    3. Pike
    4. Chastain
    5. Mulligan or Witherspoon

  12. Top 10 Promising Contenders:

    Amy Adams
    Cate Blanchett (Carol or Blackbird)
    Jessica Chastain (Eleanor Rigby)
    Anne Hathaway
    Jennifer Lawrence
    Carey Mulligan (Far From the Madding Crowd, for now)
    Rosamund Pike
    Natalie Portman
    Michelle Williams
    Reese Witherspoon (she'll be supporting in Inherent Vice)

  13. If the Academy decided to expand the other major categories like they did for Best Picture (which is unlikely) my ten picks for this are:
    1. Reese Witherspoon
    2. Jennifer Lawrence
    3. Natalie Portman
    4. Rosamund Pike
    5. Berenice Bejo
    6. Carey Mulligan
    7. Hilary Swank
    8. Helen Mirren
    9. Tina Fey
    10. Emma Stone

  14. This year seems to be another year without any challenge role, the only two different roles are Reese Witherspoon and Rosamund Pike, but the Academy always prefer popular movies and actresses instead of talent. So my prediction is:
    1. Amy Adams (Rewarding prize like Susan Sarandon or Jeff Bridges)
    2. Michelle Williams (good role, but it is not enough to win)
    3. Carey Mulligan (two movies, two great roles)
    4. Reese Witherspoon (great role the most challenging, but too soon to win another oscar)
    5. Emma Stone (I have a feeling that she can be nominated)

  15. So tired of hearing Amy Adams deserves an Oscar. I do not find her compelling at all. I am so tired of her being in every film possible just to garner awards attention. At an Oscar round table discussion in this years run up to the Academy Awards she admitted being a film role hoarder.
    Good news for her is the more exposure and people you work with, the better your chances of winning, but I wish she would take a break and give audiences time to want to see her back again.

  16. I think the Academy should add these categories:
    Best Male Voice in a leading role
    Best Female Voice in a leading role
    Best Supporting Male Voice in a supporting role
    Best Supporting Female Voice in an animated feature
    Best Villain
    Best Villain in an animated feature
    Best Stunt Double

  17. I would also like to highlight Emma Stone's chances in 'Magic in the Moonlight' directed by Woody Allen. Whilst, there is a lot of buzz around his personal life, he does write fantastic roles for women, and the academy have noticed.

  18. How about another Jennifer Lawrence / Bradley Cooper nomination for their upcoming movie "Serena"? Directed by Academy Award winner Susan Bier. They were hard not to acknowledge.

  19. I'm always really surprised when these articles blatantly leave out potential nominees. Although Emma Stone was mentioned – she wasn't mentioned for the correct role. Cate Blanchett just won an Oscar for Woody Allen's 'Blue Jasmine' – yet the author blatantly leaves out the fact that Emma Stone is the leading role in Allen's next picture "Magic in the Moonlight." Is the author this big of an ignoramus? Come on man.

  20. James Mcavoy & Jessica both got rave reviews for their performances in The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby. One of those rave reviews are from Playlist.

    There is a mistake in the review your site gave the movie. It should say "what began as a story about a man" turned into a movie about a man and a women after she ask her friend the writer & director Ned Benson to write a film for her.

  21. This is way too early, please stop. At least give it a one month rest from the time of the Oscars telecast. I'm a film fanatic too and enjoy reading about new potential quality films to see, but when you're prognosticating about films that just started production, well, that gets a little silly.

  22. After what happened in this category. It seem like you dont have to give amazing performance to nominate you just have campaign and lots of love from oscar from your previous work. so here are my surest bet to the actresses whose film i know will release this year

    Best Actress
    1. Amy Adams, Big Eyes (Finally her win is coming)
    2. Jessica Chastain, Miss Julie / The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby (4 films, Weinstein promote TDoER / ullmen may be cannes appreciation if it make it there)
    3. Reese Witherspoon, Wild / The Good Lie (come back oscar kid with meaty roles)
    4. Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco (Weinstein, playing grace kelly scream oscar)
    5. Michelle Williams, Suite Francaise (Safe bet but seriously the rest doesnt have oscar shot except Rosamund Pike for Gone Girl)

    Also for Supporting Actress
    1. Jessica Chastain, Interstellar / A Most Violent Year
    2. Meryl Streep, The Homesman or any other of his to films
    3. Viola Davis, Get On Up

    Only 3 i have to bet but Patricia Arquette for Boyhood is something i wish to be nominate

  23. It seems mental illness is the new baity thing for Best Actress winners (after Portman in Black Swan and Blanchett in Blue Jasmine), so why not considering Kidman for Before I Go To Sleep ? She suffers from amnesia, her husband is Colin Firth, it's adapted from a best-seller, she also de-glams…. I think Queen of the Desert is a 2015 film.

  24. You also need to put consider Meryl Streep for Into the Woods instead of Emily Blunt. If they don't stray too far from the source material, then she's obviously the lead. But either way, she's Meryl Streep. Three of her last four Best Actress nods, she was a supporting character.

  25. It looks like Amy Adams is the strongest bet around here. Winning an Oscar in only a matter of competition. That's why Jennifer Lawrence already won an Oscar and DiCaprio don't – she was not the better, but the most appealing between the nominations last year (Watts is old news, Riva was too not-commercial, Chastain was is a movie that involved war and politics and they would not give the Oscar for a child) and DiCaprio is always kind of repeating himself, and when an actor decides to recreate himself like McConaughey did, it catches the eye of the Academy. 2015 will be a year of weak competition at the Oscars, I bet my little money on Amy Adams finally getting her statue.

  26. 2014 would be a year with so interesting Lead actress category, so many well-know names, so many overdues for win or 2nd nomination, so many actresses who'll come back with more complex roles than just stupid comedies. I would call a year for young actresses where R. Mara, M. Wasikowska, S. Johanson can be recognized with the nomination.
    We need to take the attention on "Lucy with Scarlett, directed by Luc Besson.

  27. my early prediction for best actress are
    Amy Adams-Big Eyes
    Emma Stone-The Magic In The Moonlight
    Helen Mirren-The Hundred Foot Journey
    Natalie Portman-Jane Got A Gun or one of the terrence malick project not sure which one tho
    Reese Witherspoon-Wild

  28. When Heath Ledger died, it's like Michelle Williams was appointed the U.S. Ambassador to humorless boring movies as some kind of consolation.

  29. I'm surprised you're holding Wild & Reese Witherspoon in such high regard, Oli. In my opinion, Reese is bound to take the Gwyneth path to post-Oscar acclaim— being "none." Neither will even score another nomination again. I think Julianne in Maps to the Stars, Anne in Interstellar and Rooney in Trash are good bets. I wouldn't even discount Mia in Tracks–ever since Meryl called her out for her work in Jane Eyre I feel like there's a bubbling desire for Mia to be recognized with a nomination.

  30. If "Carol" stays faithful to "The Price of Salt," it would more likely be Mara in lead and Blanchett in supporting. The book is told from the point of view of Mara's character, Therese Belivet, and there's a substantial segment in the third act where Carol (Blanchett) isn't around.

  31. Well I hope Amy Adams deserves the nomination this year because for American Hustle her nomination was a completely joke, but don´t misundestand me she is a great actress but she did not deserve her last nomination.

  32. sorry, African Americans – only civil rights and slave narratives are serious roles. Preferably with a white savior.
    sorry, Latinos and Latinas – we don't even know you exist.
    signed Hollywood.

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