Premature Oscar Predictions: 2018 Best Picture & Best Director Nominees

Best Director

Luca Guadagnino – “Call Me By Your Name”
There’s been a notable shift in the last few years, as the membership of the director’s branch of the Academy has changed, to more interesting auteur-y nominations. Even as the occasional Morten Tyldum gets through, we’ve also seen nods for Terrence Malick, Michael Haneke, Bennett Miller and Lenny Abrahamson over some of their more bait-y competition. This could be good news for Italian helmer Luca Guadagnino, whose “Call Me By Your Name” has been picking up raves on the festival circuit. It’s the kind of film that’s been more successful than you might expect with the branch of late — carefully honed rather than big and flashy — and he’s been winning fans in recent years anyway. That said, he’s a relatively unknown quantity even among the hipper, more Euro-inclined members, and potentially risks Norbit-ing himself with a remake of “Suspiria” likely to bow at the fall fests, so it’s easy to see him slipping out for a bigger name like Spielberg or Payne if their films work.

Dee Rees – “Mudbound”
Not only has a black filmmaker never won Best Director (Steve McQueen and Barry Jenkins both helmed Best Picture winners, but lost out to others in the Director category), but a black woman has never even been nominated. But that could well end up changing with “Mudbound,” which literally made it a condition of its sale that director Dee Rees would get a major, and potentially historic, Best Director push. Rees is relatively little-known, but has done consistently stellar work on “Pariah” and “Bessie,” but history is certainly moving in her direction, and few Academy voters had heard of Barry Jenkins a year ago. There are obstacles in her way — not just potential Netflix resistance, but also a slight critical consensus that the movie’s a little too long. If she takes the time to re-edit slightly (which Netflix likely won’t insist on), and if the Academy fully embrace the streaming medium, she might end up being near-unstoppable in the category.

Kathryn Bigelow – “Untitled Detroit Riots Project”
Seven years on from Kathryn Bigelow shattering the glass ceiling and becoming the first woman to win Best Director, we still haven’t seen a second. In fact, we haven’t seen a second nominated, which is a goddamn disgrace. But there’s a very real chance, if both “Mudbound” and Bigelow’s Detroit Riots movie become Oscar juggernauts, that 2018 could see two women nominated for the first time ever (and hell, who knows, maybe there’ll be more waiting in the wings, too). Bigelow failed to make the cut for “Zero Dark Thirty” in a pretty depressing move, but Annapurna are likely to push her hard if the movie’s as good as we’ve become accustomed to Bigelow’s films being. Could she win a second Oscar before another female director wins their first?

Christopher Nolan – “Dunkirk”
He might be one of the most popular directors alive — indeed, he’s probably supplanted Spielberg at this point as the biggest brand-name filmmaker, capable of drawing vast crowds to basically whatever he does — but remarkably, Christopher Nolan has never been nominated for the Best Director Oscar. As his first non-sci-fi movie since “Insomnia” (back when he was a fast-rising star rather than a legend), “Dunkirk” likely marks his best chance of breaking into the category. If the branch has had some strange aversion to the director before now — and they probably haven’t, just a case of other movies making it in first — his support and push for the use of film, with “Dunkirk” being shot and released on that format, may have helped change things. If it’s as good as the trailer makes it look, and as successful as Nolan’s films usually are, this could well be his year.

Steven Spielberg – “The Kidnapping Of Edgardo Mortara”
In the little-less-than-20 years since he won his second Oscar for “Saving Private Ryan,” Steven Spielberg has, fascinatingly, been nominated only twice, for “Munich” and “Lincoln” (Best Picture nods “War Horse” and “Bridge Of Spies” weren’t replicated in the category). So given that his latest marks the closure of an unofficial trilogy with writer Tony Kushner with the past illuminating the present begun by those two films, there’s probably a better chance than usual that Spielberg make the final five if “The Kidnapping Of Edgardo Mortara” isn’t somehow of “Always” quality. He’s such an omnipresent figure in Hollywood lore that it’s easy for him to drop out in favor of a younger upstart, but maybe this is the one that gives him the third Oscar he’s long deserved.

If They’re Ready In Time:

Steve McQueen – “Widows”
Like we said, “Widows” doesn’t immediately appear to have the kind of potent, awards-grabby subject matter of some of McQueen’s earlier films. But he’s also a remarkable director, and the idea of him turning his considerable filmmaking talents on a crime thriller of substance feels like the kind of thing that could make the awards race pay attention. After all, McQueen lost Best Director to Alfonso Cuarón when “12 Years A Slave” took Best Picture, so while that was his first nomination, there’s likely a feeling that he’s due. Again, it’s unclear if the film will be picked up and in theaters before the end of the year (perhaps Viola Davis just winning an Oscar gives it less sense of urgency in some ways), but if it is, McQueen will almost certainly be in the conversation.

Honorable mentions: Of the other directors in the running (and this is harder to predict than Best Picture in some ways, given the smaller number of slots), Garth Davis of “Mary Magdalene,” Alexander Payne of “Downsizing” and Todd Haynes of “Wonderstruck” feel like the ones bubbling under most obviously here. Beyond that, Sofia Coppola, George Clooney, Darren Aronofsky, Michael Haneke, Paul Thomas Anderson and Alfonso Cuarón could be looking at picking up additional nominations to the ones they already have, for their new films “The Beguiled,” “Suburbicon,” “Mother!,” “Happy End,” the untitled fashion movie, or “Roma.”

And we could also see first nominations for “The Greatest Showman”’s Michael Gracey, “The Current War” director Alfonso Gomez-Rejon, Dan Gilroy of “Inner City,” Joe Wright of “The Darkest Hour,” Andrew Haigh of “Lean On Pete,” “Short Term 12” director Destin Daniel Cretton for “The Glass Castle,” Jonathan Dayton & Valerie Faris for “Battle Of The Sexes,” Aaron Sorkin for his directorial debut “Molly’s Game,” Guillermo Del Toro for “The Shape Of Water” and “Triple Frontier” helmer J.C. Chandor. Anyone else you think is viable? Shout ’em out below.