So there’s pre-TIFF Oscar predix and then there’s the more accurate post-TIFF Oscar predix. There will always be a surprise or two, but this is basically where we’ve netted out so far. We’re only listing 8 out of 10, because the rest we have to wait and see what emerges. But we’re convinced “The Lovely Bones” is out of the pack now that it’s been dumped in a late December, obligator-qualifying spot and then is going with a wide January release. It never really looked that great to begin with and this move by Paramount confirms it in our eyes.
Obviously coming out of TIFF, “Precious,” which won the audience award and “A Single Man,” which we saw and were nearly bowled over, got some good bumps from TIFF. So did “A Serious Man,” which we saw, and is also doing well with critics.
The question mark here is “Invictus.” Is it that good? Or is it a “Changeling” or a “Gran Torino,” i.e., ok to good, but not Oscar material (we should read that script, we have it lying around.) Another one is “Nine.” It’s been rumored to be possibly bumped into 2010. If that happens it’s obviously out of the race, but right now it basically has to switch dates because it’s going up against a November 25 “The Road” release, both are Weinstein Company films and they don’t want to divide audiences. It really seems that Harvey Weinstein is all in a lather and bonered up over Tom Ford’s “A Single Man,” and with good reason. It could easily earn not just a Best Picture, but a Best Director nod for the fashion-magnate-turned-filmmaker’s feature-length debut. So watch the “Nine” bump when it happens closely because it will give clues as to how confident they are about “A Single Man.” We’ll tell you right now Colin Firth is a shoo-in for a Best Actor nomination. Julianne Moore could get a Best Supporting nod as well. And please don’t factor in the gay qualities “A Single Man.” If “Milk” can score a nod, then “A Single Man,” which is really 10 times better, certainly can.
So as it stands now, this is where it seems we are:
“An Education”
“A Single Man”
“A Serious Man”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Invictus”
“Nine”
“Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire”
“Up in the Air”
One more question is “Up.” Does it have the legs for a Best Picture? That leaves one more. The answer is we don’t know yet, so let’s not bother putting up stupid guesses.
You're putting a lot of faith that the Weinsteins (who are still in the hole) have enough money to push the trades for 2 oscar nominated films for best picture and Disney and Fox don't?
Amelia and Up should vie for slots.
those all seem like good predictions but do you think that the tree of life (if released in time) will get a nod?
A couple questions:
1. So if 'Nine' might gets bumped will it be until next fall 2010 so that it fits into awards consideration season? A full year is too long for me.
Is it maybe fair to say that given the tightening of wallets perhaps TIFF is now a little too late in the year for building buzz? (Especially when/if a studio wants to promote two movies).
2. Does 'Up' have to choose between the Best Picture and Best Animated categories when being submitted. I think the studio will go with the sure thing and take home the gold.
3. Odds of Tom Ford coming to the Oscars with no tie and an open collar to his sternum?
I think a film can go for both Best Animated and Best Picture, just like one can go for both Best Foreign Language and Best Picture. Documentaries need to chose between Best Picture or Best Documentary, which in the past lead to 2004's documentary sensation, Fahrenheit 9/11, failing to recieve any nominations after Moore and co decided to push it for BP.
Wow, the Oscar noms are a big pile of shit this year.
I don't have a lot of faith in TWC Anon1. I actually think they're prolly gonna bump Nine, but who knows.
If they do bump it they'll probably save it for Fall 2010 unless something better comes along (they're only loyalty is to their best Oscar shot).
They should kinda realize Oscar prestige doesn't rake in the dollars they used to, but that's the world they know, so their end game each year is Oscar and nothing but.
@ SK, yes i do think Up has a shot at being in both categories. It's buzz has just died down at the moment, but it could bubble up again around For Your Consideration time. It's all about rising and falling temperatures and this is where were are at this very moment.
I think Amelia may have a shot, but we'll really have to wait and see.
And @Bestcelebrity. Actually that list is pretty great (if it happens) and better than last years 5 for sure.
I don't think The Lovely Bones being released limited in late Dec., only to expand in Jan. is a sign of anything. Now I'm not speaking for the film in anyway (it may or may not have a shot), but I can name a dozen films that were released like that and were big awards contenders.
@Circus, see "Defiance." In the past it was an indication of nothing. Now it sort of means a film set into a certain time-frame so it will qualify for Oscar, but there isn't a ton of hope there. Or at least that's my prediction. Paramount seems gung-ho about Up In The Air and most studios don't really have the juice to push more than one movie — which might be the pickle that TWC is in.
And they might be thinking long and hard on that one especially since they still haven't moved Nine yet.
I just can't imagine "Nine" getting bumped. I think the Weinsteins will just go all-in casino style and push them both.
I don't see "Nine" NOT being a big Oscar contender, and even if it somehow misses BP, there are still a dozen other nominations it couple get that I don't see "A Single Man" earning – lots of techs, supporting nods. And really, "Nine" will get way more BO than "A Singe Man," and that's probably what the Weinsteins need right now.
But honestly I think (having seen 'Man' like you) that that film will be the one coming up short, despite a full-on Weinsteins push, and will get a Best Actor nod but not a whole lot else.
To twist what you've said a bit: If "Nine" doesn't get bumped I'm going to assume it's as big a contender as it's always seemed to be.
I'm with you on "The Lovely Bones" though. Not so much because of the release date ("Letters from Iwo Jima," a Japanese language film, managed ok with that spot, and only 5 nominees), but because the trailer made it look kinda awful, and I'm betting the movie is a bit of a mess.