There is one thing we know for sure about the winners of the 94th Academy Awards. Many of them will have contributed to Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune” (when do we start referring to it as “Dune: Part One”?). We’re predicting six Oscars will be awarded to the Warner Bros. release. Barring some gigantic surprise, Best Picture will not be one of them.
READ MORE: Oscars 2022: Everything We Now Know About The Telecast So Far
In any other year, the mantra for an Oscars consultant is “You win in phase one.” That is, most voters decide their Best Picture pick when they vote on the nominated field itself, not after the nominations are announced. If “CODA” does win — spoiler, we’re predicting it — it will be an outlier of a champion that consolidated its support after the nominations were revealed. Again, we cannot stress how rare that is.
One thing is for sure unless “Dune” or fellow WB stablemate “King Richard” surprise, the Best Picture statue will go to a distributor that has never won Oscar’s top honor before. Netflix for “The Power of the Dog,” Apple TV+ for “CODA” or, after 20 years of unmitigated classics, Focus Features for “Belfast.” And, hey, that’s sorta fun, isn’t it?
Without further ado, here are our final predictions for the 2022 Academy Awards.
Best animated feature film of the year
- “Encanto” Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino and Clark Spencer
- “Flee” Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie
- “Luca” Enrico Casarosa and Andrea Warren
- “The Mitchells vs. the Machines” Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Kurt Albrecht
- “Raya and the Last Dragon” Don Hall, Carlos López Estrada, Osnat Shurer and Peter Del Vecho
Who will win: “Encanto.“
Who should win: “Encanto” or “Flee.”
Upset: “The Mitchells vs. the Machines”
Lowdown: This is a fantastic field, but going to be hard for “Mitchells” or “Flee” to overcome the love for “Encanto.”
Achievement in cinematography
- “Dune” Greig Fraser
- “Nightmare Alley” Dan Laustsen
- “The Power of the Dog” Ari Wegner
- “The Tragedy of Macbeth” Bruno Delbonnel
- “West Side Story” Janusz Kaminski
Who will win: Greig Fraser, “Dune.“
Who should win: Dan Lausten, “Nightmare Alley.”
Upset: “Ari Wegner, “The Power of the Dog”
Lowdown: There has been a lot of buzz about Wegner taking this one, and, frankly, there should be. A win would make her the first woman ever to be honored in what has been a male-dominated field. Wegner could surprise, but we still think Fraser, this year’s ASC winner, will take his first trophy instead.
Achievement in costume design
- “Cruella” Jenny Beavan
- “Cyrano” Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran
- “Dune” Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan
- “Nightmare Alley” Luis Sequeira
- “West Side Story” Paul Tazewell
Who will win: Jenny Beavan, “Cruella.”
Who should win: Jenny Beavan, “Cruella.”
Upset: Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan, “Dune”
Lowdown: If Beavan loses here, it’s one of the bigger upsets of the night. This feels preordained since the film first began screening almost a year ago.
Achievement in directing
- “Belfast” Kenneth Branagh
- “Drive My Car” Ryusuke Hamaguchi
- “Licorice Pizza” Paul Thomas Anderson
- “The Power of the Dog” Jane Campion
- “West Side Story” Steven Spielberg
Who will win: Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog.”
Who should win: Ryusuke Hamaguchi, “Drive My Car.”
Upset: None
Lowdown: Controversy over her Critics Choice comments aside (a speech that a fraction of the Academy saw or read about), this is absolutely going to Campion.
Best documentary feature
- “Ascension” Jessica Kingdon, Kira Simon-Kennedy and Nathan Truesdell
- “Attica” Stanley Nelson and Traci A. Curry
- “Flee” Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie
- “Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)” Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson, Joseph Patel, Robert Fyvolent and David Dinerstein
- “Writing with Fire” Rintu Thomas and Sushmit Ghosh
Who will win: “Summer of Soul.“
Who should win: “Summer of Soul” or “Flee.”
Upset: “Attica,” “Flee”
Lowdown: If there is one movie that is pretty much beloved by the industry this year, it’s “Summer of Soul.” Book it.
Best documentary short subject
- “Audible” Matt Ogens and Geoff McLean
- “Lead Me Home” Pedro Kos and Jon Shenk
- “The Queen of Basketball” Ben Proudfoot
- “Three Songs for Benazir” Elizabeth Mirzaei and Gulistan Mirzaei
- “When We Were Bullies” Jay Rosenblatt
Who will win: “The Queen of Basketball.“
Who should win: “The Queen of Basketball.”
Upset: “Audible”
Lowdown: O.K., the most important thing to realize is this is not a good class of doc shorts. Not sure what happened, but it comes down to a very compelling and moving historical portrait, “Queen,” versus a “Cheer”-ish version of a deaf high school football team that plays more like a docuseries pilot than a doc short. “Queen” at the buzzer for the win.
Achievement in film editing
- “Don’t Look Up” Hank Corwin
- “Dune” Joe Walker
- “King Richard” Pamela Martin
- “The Power of the Dog” Peter Sciberras
- “tick, tick…BOOM!” Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum
Who will win: Joe Walker, “Dune.”
Who should win: Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum, “tick, tick…BOOM!”
Upset: Hank Corwin “Don’t Look Up” or Pamela Martin, “King Richard.”
Lowdown: We’re picking Walker, but this is a very tough category. Corwin could win on his third nomination and Martin, who took the Eddies Award with a raucous standing ovation from her peers, is a very well-known and appreciated “fixer” on numerous studio films. It’s arguably very close between her and Walker.
Best international feature film of the year
- “Drive My Car” Japan
- “Flee” Denmark
- “The Hand of God” Italy
- “Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom” Bhutan
- “The Worst Person in the World” Norway
Who will win: “Drive My Car.”
Who should win: “The Worst Person in the World.”
Upset: “The Worst Person in the World”
Lowdown: In a perfect world, “Worst,” my no. 1 film of 2021, would win this and also be nominated for Best Picture and Best Actress. Nevertheless, we’ve been fans of Ryusuke Hamaguchi‘s masterwork since Cannes. Oh, and it was our no. 2 film of 2021, so still, a win to get excited about.
Achievement in makeup and hairstyling
- “Coming 2 America” Mike Marino, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer
- “Cruella” Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and Julia Vernon
- “Dune” Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr
- “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh
- “House of Gucci” Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock and Frederic Aspiras
Who will win: Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram, and Justin Raleigh “The Eyes of Tammy Faye.”
Who should win: Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram, and Justin Raleigh “The Eyes of Tammy Faye.”
Upset: Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne, and Julia Vernon, “Cruella,”
Lowdown: After the BAFTA win, it’s pretty clear this is one is going to “Tammy Faye.” And if “Cruella” upsets? With those wigs? Oof.
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
- “Don’t Look Up” Nicholas Britell
- “Dune” Hans Zimmer
- “Encanto” Germaine Franco
- “Parallel Mothers” Alberto Iglesias
- “The Power of the Dog” Jonny Greenwood
Who will win: Hans Zimmer, “Dune.”
Who should win: Alberto Iglesias, “Parallel Mothers.”
Upset: Johnny Greenwood, “The Power of the Dog.”
Lowdown: In what will be a surprise to many reading this, Zimmer has only won one Oscar since his first nomination in 1989 for “Rain Man.” This is his 12th nomination and should provide him with a long-awaited second statue.
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
- “Be Alive” from “King Richard”
Music and Lyric by DIXSON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter - “Dos Oruguitas” from “Encanto”
Music and Lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda - “Down To Joy” from “Belfast”
Music and Lyric by Van Morrison - “No Time To Die” from “No Time to Die”
Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell - “Somehow You Do” from “Four Good Days”
Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
Who will win: Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell, “No Time To Die.”
Who should win: Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell, “No Time To Die.”
Upset: Lin-Manuel Miranda, “Dos Orguitas.”
Lowdown: Listen, the love and massive popularity for “Encanto’s” “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” could rub off on the less memorable “Dos Orguitas,” but we’re hoping the Academy’s usually good taste prevails and Eilish and her brother take the Oscar for the haunting Bond title track (which already won a Grammy last year due to pandemic release delays).
Achievement in production design
- “Dune” Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Zsuzsanna Sipos
- “Nightmare Alley” Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
- “The Power of the Dog” Production Design: Grant Major; Set Decoration: Amber Richards
- “The Tragedy of Macbeth” Production Design: Stefan Dechant; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh
- “West Side Story” Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Rena DeAngelo
Who will win: Patrice Vermette and Zsuzsanna Sipos, “Dune.”
Who should win: Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau, “Nightmare Alley.”
Upset: Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau, “Nightmare Alley” or Adam Stockhausen and Rena DeAngelo, “West Side Story.”
Lowdown: “Nightmare” or “West Side Story” have a shot, but it’s likely another “Dune” win.
Best animated short film
- “Affairs of the Art” Joanna Quinn and Les Mills
- “Bestia” Hugo Covarrubias and Tevo Díaz
- “Boxballet” Anton Dyakov
- “Robin Robin” Dan Ojari and Mikey Please
- “The Windshield Wiper” Alberto Mielgo and Leo Sanchez
Who will win: “Robin Robin.”
Who should win: “The Windshield Wiper.”
Upset: “The Windshield Wiper”
Lowdown: My lord is the “The Windshield Wiper” fantastic (someone give Alberto Mielgo the budget for a feature), but it’s probably a bit too adult for the qualified voters in this category (if the entire Academy voted, that would be a different story). Instead, the very charming and beautifully made Aardman short “Robin Robin” should take it.
Best live-action short film
- “Ala Kachuu – Take and Run” Maria Brendle and Nadine Lüchinger
- “The Dress” Tadeusz Łysiak and Maciej Ślesicki
- “The Long Goodbye” Aneil Karia and Riz Ahmed
- “On My Mind” Martin Strange-Hansen and Kim Magnusson
- “Please Hold” K.D. Dávila and Levin Menekse
Who will win: “The Dress.”
Who should win: “The Dress.”
Upset: “Please Hold” or “The Long Goodbye.”
Lowdown: “The Long Goodbye” with Riz Ahmed has a puncher’s chance, but it’s likely between “The Dress” or “Please Hold.” We’re going with “The Dress” because it’s the more moving, grounded, and cinematic of the two. It also features a fantastic lead performance from Anna Dzieduszycka.
Achievement in sound
- “Belfast” Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather and Niv Adiri
- “Dune” Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett
- “No Time to Die” Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey and Mark Taylor
- “The Power of the Dog” Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie and Tara Webb
- “West Side Story” Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Shawn Murphy
Who will win: Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill, and Ron Bartlett, “Dune.”
Who should win: Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill, and Ron Bartlett, “Dune.”
Upset: Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Shawn Murphy, “West Side Story.”
Lowdown: I mean, maybe “West Side Story,” but, c’mon, you know it already, “Dune.”
Achievement in visual effects
- “Dune” Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer
- “Free Guy” Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and Dan Sudick
- “No Time to Die” Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner and Chris Corbould
- “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker and Dan Oliver
- “Spider-Man: No Way Home” Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick
Who will win: Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor, and Gerd Nefzer, “Dune.”
Who should win: Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor, and Gerd Nefzer, “Dune.”
Upset: Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick, “Spider-Man: No Way Home.”
Lowdown: The classier, prestige-ish film has tended to triumph here over the past 15 years or so. That makes it a somewhat easy win for, yet again, “Dune.”
Adapted screenplay
- “CODA” Screenplay by Siân Heder
- “Drive My Car” Screenplay by Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe
- “Dune” Screenplay by Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth
- “The Lost Daughter” Written by Maggie Gyllenhaal
- “The Power of the Dog” Written by Jane Campion
Who will win: Siân Heder, “CODA.”
Who should win: Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe, “Drive My Car.”
Upset: Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog.”
Lowdown: If Campion pulls this off, the drama over opening the Best Picture envelope will be intense. That being said, once Heder took BAFTA it made “CODA” the easy frontrunner here.
Original screenplay
- “Belfast” Written by Kenneth Branagh
- “Don’t Look Up” Screenplay by Adam McKay; Story by Adam McKay & David Sirota
- “King Richard” Written by Zach Baylin
- “Licorice Pizza” Written by Paul Thomas Anderson
- “The Worst Person in the World” Written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
Who will win: Paul Thomas Anderson, “Licorice Pizza.”
Who should win: Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier, “The Worst Person in the World.”
Upset: “Belfast” or “Don’t Look Up.”
Lowdown: This is arguably the toughest category to predict this year. In theory, “Belfast” should take this as a potential Best Picture winner, but the last few weeks have taken the air out of that balloon. It couldn’t even win the equivalent category at BAFTA for Christ’s sake (very Jason Reitman and “Up in the Air” vibes). That means it’s down to PTA for “Licorice” and Adam McKay and David Sirota for “Don’t Look Up.” The question is, do you think AMPAS membership is closer to BAFTA or WGA voters in a head to head? We say BAFTA so we’re going with PTA to land his first Oscar. That being said, we are prepared to be very wrong about it.
Performance by an actor in a leading role
- Javier Bardem in “Being the Ricardos”
- Benedict Cumberbatch in “The Power of the Dog”
- Andrew Garfield in “tick, tick…BOOM!”
- Will Smith in “King Richard”
- Denzel Washington in “The Tragedy of Macbeth”
Who will win: Will Smith, “King Richard.”
Who should win: Andrew Garfield, “tick, tick…BOOM!”
Upset: Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Power of the Dog.”
Lowdown: If Cumberbatch somehow wins this? Twitter is not gonna be happy.
Performance by an actor in a supporting role
- Ciarán Hinds in “Belfast”
- Troy Kotsur in “CODA”
- Jesse Plemons in “The Power of the Dog”
- J.K. Simmons in “Being the Ricardos”
- Kodi Smit-McPhee in “The Power of the Dog”
Who will win: Troy Kotsur, “CODA”
Who should win: Ciarán Hinds, “Belfast.”
Upset: Kodi Smit-McPhee, “The Power of the Dog.”
Lowdown: Kotsur’s incredible run is one of the best things to happen to awards season in years.
Performance by an actress in a leading role
- Jessica Chastain in “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”
- Olivia Colman in “The Lost Daughter”
- Penélope Cruz in “Parallel Mothers”
- Nicole Kidman in “Being the Ricardos”
- Kristen Stewart in “Spencer”
Who will win: Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye.”
Who should win: Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” or Olivia Colman, “The Lost Daughter.”
Upset: Penélope Cruz, “Parallel Mothers.”
Lowdown: Chastain or Cruz. Either could win. Neither over campaigned. Both are deserving. There is a lot of passion for both. We’re going with Chastain after her SAG win, but it’s a coin flip.
Performance by an actress in a supporting role
- Jessie Buckley in “The Lost Daughter”
- Ariana DeBose in “West Side Story”
- Judi Dench in “Belfast”
- Kirsten Dunst in “The Power of the Dog”
- Aunjanue Ellis in “King Richard”
Who will win: Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story”
Who should win: Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story.”
Upset: Aunjanue Ellis, “King Richard.”
Lowdown: Don’t be surprised if Ellis shocks here. I’m going with DeBose because I can’t fathom her losing at this point, but tons of AMPAS members are voting for Ellis (really).
Best motion picture of the year
- “Belfast” Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik and Tamar Thomas, Producers
- “CODA” Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi and Patrick Wachsberger, Producers
- “Don’t Look Up” Adam McKay and Kevin Messick, Producers
- “Drive My Car” Teruhisa Yamamoto, Producer
- “Dune” Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve and Cale Boyter, Producers
- “King Richard” Tim White, Trevor White and Will Smith, Producers
- “Licorice Pizza” Sara Murphy, Adam Somner and Paul Thomas Anderson, Producers
- “Nightmare Alley” Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Bradley Cooper, Producers
- “The Power of the Dog” Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian, Emile Sherman, Iain Canning and Roger Frappier, Producers
- “West Side Story” Steven Spielberg and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers
Who will win: “CODA”
Who should win: “Drive My Car.”
Upset: “The Power of the Dog,” “Belfast,” “King Richard.”
Lowdown: Maybe “Power of the Dog” pulls it out. Maybe “CODA’s” surge is a mirage. Maybe “Belfast” has an epic comeback or “King Richard” is the benefactor of 2nd and 3rd place votes. We think the heart of “CODA” is going to shatter a ton of historical voting statistics and override the international member swing, but anything can happen.
The 94th Academy Awards will be held at the Dolby Theater on Sunday, March 27th, and will be telecast on ABC beginning at 5 PM PT/8 PM ET.
