TORONTO – Despite the advent of an expanded Hollywood Film Awards-esque fake awards show (yeah, it’s a fundraiser, we get it) and the bragging points of hosting the world premiere of the last Best Picture winner, “Green Book,” it’s still very hard to take the Toronto International Film Festival seriously as an Oscars launchpad. It’s an acquisition market, a popular screening event for locals and one of the largest festivals in terms of individual films screened, 333 this year alone, in the world. If you’re part of one of those 333 films, you’ve theoretically made it. But Oscar? TIFF takes whatever standing it has way too seriously.
At its best, TIFF is an event that recruits a large number of the world’s critics, media, independent producers and acquisition execs for a week of numerous screenings, after-parties and social media overreactions (it also generates substantial business revenue for the city of Toronto). In terms of awards, there are certainly AMPAS members in Toronto, but as we’ve harped on numerous times before, they rarely have the opportunity to see any other films than their own. A trip to TIFF is a public relations endeavor for their own projects first and foremost. It’s extremely rare to see any member head to Toronto just to see movies. Now, if the Toronto hype somehow convinces AMPAS members to see a film when it screens in Los Angeles, New York or London, well, bless. But those pontificating from just Toronto without speaking to a good number of Academy members in attendance deserve a questionable raised eyebrow. And the People’s Choice Award? I mean, it’s a public relations tool for sure, but doesn’t really mean much more than that.
As for the market, this was not a great year for Toronto in terms of world premieres outside of the studio realm. Nothing really popped with Fox Searchlight picking up “The Private Life of David Copperfield” before the fest, Bleecker Street signing up for “Military Wives” and Sony Classics coming around to “Lyrebird” which premiered at Telluride. Titles like “Bad Education” with Hugh Jackman and “Synchronic” with Anthony Mackie and Jamie Dornan are still looking for buyers as well as a number of highly touted international productions. This TIFF pretty much confirmed there is no “I, Tonya,” “Jackie” or “Vox Lux” landing a last-minute acquisition to make a play for Oscar. And considering how wide open the race is in terms of Best Picture, that’s notable.
Before we consider the awards season prospects for the films that debuted at TIFF let’s quickly review a few of the players we already knew of that made the trek to Toronto.
Did “Marriage Story” have another bump at yet another festival?
If you mean did it add more glowing reviews in the coffers, absolutely. Awards season voters have already heard the “must-see” trumpets from Venice and Telluride. If it wins the People’s Choice Award, well, that’s something…I guess.
Did “Parasite” charm another film festival as well?
You mean the movie that every competing consultant is now taking seriously as a threat to land a Best Picture nomination? The film that could easily win LAFCA’s top prize? Sure.
Did “Portrait of a Lady” gain any traction?
It did among the cinephile press, but if France chooses “Les Miserables” as its International Film category submission it won’t matter much outside of top 10 lists.
Is “Ford v. Ferrari” a serious Best Picture player?
The reaction at Telluride would say “yes,” but across the border, the North American media were not as enthused as you might have expected. The reactions were still positive and yet “Ford” somehow got overshadowed by everything else in Toronto. This isn’t something new, the wrong premiere day or time and it’s easy for any title to fall to the wayside. Then again, this was always an on the ground in LA Oscar play anyway.
Did “Judy” just become more than a potential Renee Zellweger comeback coronation?
The reactions to “Judy” in Telluride were fantastic, but as the film continues to screen it’s clear that there is a base that loves the whole movie, not just Zellweger’s performance. They just love it, flaws and all (note: it’s currently a 66 on Metacritic). Often, that’s all you need to earn a Best Picture nod. We’ll know soon enough how far that love will go as it begins its theatrical run on Sept. 27.
And now, how about those Toronto world premiere players?
“Hustlers” has unexpected momentum and an open runway…for now
STX Entertainment and the producers of Lorene Scafaria‘s entertaining drama new it would be well received after early screenings, but the adoration that came from its TIFF world premiere had to be unexpected. Granted, AMPAS members are a different breed, but Jennifer Lopez is definitely a Supporting Actress player and those steering her eventual campaign have a lot of talking points to run with (although, cough, she needs to campaign for it). A SAG ensemble nod is a smart play, a WGA nod is possible and multiple Golden Globe nominations seem likely. If the movie is a big enough hit and the industry embraces it, this year is wide open enough that a Best Picture nod isn’t out of the question either. There is something gestating there, but STX has to pivot quickly from their original marketing campaign or AMPAS members won’t take it seriously.
Is “Knives Out” a serious awards player?
Rain Johnson‘s whodunnit is another film that received a raucous reception. The question is whether the euphoric reactions were critics going a bit overboard or a sign of Johnson tapping into the zeitgeist. Lionsgate likely has a nice hit on its hands – a great reason to get the word out at early at TIFF – but is this more than a potential Original Screenplay nominee? Could Daniel Craig sneak into the Supporting Actor race? Is it genuinely a SAG ensemble player? Does Lionsgate even want to roll the dice on an intense campaign with Jay Roach’s “Bombshell” waiting in the wings? No easy answers with this one.
“Joker’s” Joaquin Phoenix is the real deal, but…
Yes, Phoenix’s performance in Todd Phillips‘ “Joker” is damn impressive. In theory, he’s a lock for his fourth acting nomination. The movie, well, we’re not so sure. After shocking the cinematic world by taking the Golden Lion at Venice, anticipation was high that the Warner Bros. release could be another contender in the Best Picture field. That’s still possible, but the film elicited a much more polarizing reaction from those in Toronto than even Warner Bros. could have anticipated (or maybe they did and Venice was the surprise?). The good news for WB is Phoenix’s campaign is safely on track. Whether the film can expand beyond his turn, Mark Friedberg’s production design, Hildur Guðnadóttir‘s score and, potentially, Lawrence Sher‘s cinematography, remains to be seen.
Can Jamie Foxx and Rob Morgan both earn nominations for “Just Mercy”?
Destin Cretton‘s drama about the fight for Walter McMillian‘s freedom earned mostly mixed to positive reviews at TIFF. What Warner Bros. can hang their hat on after debuting the movie over three months before its Dec. 25 release is the almost universal praise stars Foxx and Morgan received. The two actors give phenomenal performances that overcome a slightly stiff and by the numbers screenplay. The problem is both performances have to be considered supporting. Can both Foxx and Morgan make the cut? Will Morgan be overshadowed by the more well-known Oscar winner? Needless to say, the Supporting Actor race just got much more interesting.
Fox Searchlight will have to fight for “Jojo Rabbit”
We’re not going to say some critics were unduly harsh on Taika Waititi’s comedy on the power of hate and ignorance, but we’re not not going to say it either. The film can certainly make money at the box office. Searchlight’s quandary is how to keep a Best Picture nomination alive. Notably, it’s been done before. “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close,” “The Reader” and “Lion” are all films that recovered from rocky starts to make the cut (“Lion” being the most recent example and a TIFF world premiere at that). Will Waititi work for it? Will the film elicit an emotional enough reaction from AMPAS members to earn a nod? We’ll be watching.
Don’t sleep on “Harriet’s” Cynthia Erivo
Frankly, the buzz on “Harriet” hadn’t been good for weeks, so we went into Kasi Lemmons‘ biopic of American hero Harriet Tubman with some trepidation. In reality, “Harriet” is a solid, middle of the road drama with a performance from Erivo that often saves the screenplay or her miscast co-star Joe Alwyn (a rare misstep for the busy Brit) when the film needs it the most. The Tony Award winner could easily miss out on an Oscar nomination for her performance here, but she could also just as easily be a steady player as the season progresses.
Note: Noah Hawley’s “Lucy in the Sky” with Natalie Portman screened after we departed Toronto. We’ll consider the awards season prospects for that Searchlight flick and other titles such as James Gray’s “Ad Astra” in the first Contender Countdown column next week.
