Now in its 23rd year, the SAG Awards and its nomination committee in particular are starting to get a reputation. It might not be a good one.
In the film categories, the actors had competitive races in Female Actor and Ensemble and two of their picks were eyebrow raising. “Captain Fantastic” earned nods for both Viggo Mortensen in Male Actor (not necessarily a surprise), but cracking the Ensemble field was the facesmack of the millennium. Especially for a film that was an art house disappointment (just $5.8 million) and earned a comparably fine 72 on Meteacritic and 82% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. Needless to say, this is the second year in a row distributor newbie distributor Bleecker Street has scored upsets with SAG members and their more established competitors should seriously take some notes.
The other major surprise was in Female Actor where Emily Blunt rose like a phoenix from the ashes to earn a nod for “The Girl on the Train.” It wasn’t that Blunt isn’t good in the movie — she is — but the fact is that this is the most competitive Best Actress awards season field this century. Blunt knocked out “20th Century Women’s” Annette Bening, “Elle’s” Isabelle Huppert and “Loving’s” Ruth Negga, among others, to make the cut. Moreover, this is her first SAG Award nomination to date. It’s not like she’s been a longtime favorite like Meryl Streep or Amy Adams. It probably didn’t hurt, however, that the film was one of the more widely seen of the bunch.
Before tackling individual categories some other key observations.
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SAG loved “La La Land” to give stars Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling nods, but not enough to put it in ensemble (there were actually a bunch of other actors in the movie). That being said, it would now be the first movie to win Best Picture without an ensemble nomination since “Braveheart” in 1996. Trust that no one at Lionsgate is worried about its chances. I mean, 2016, right?
SAG simply did not like “Loving.” Not only was Negga overlooked but so was co-star Joel Edgerton in the Male Actor category. Throw in the snub for Michael Shannon in Supporting Actor and Focus Features had a tough day.
SAG made Paramount‘s week. The studio had an awful Golden Globes morning followed by two somewhat unexpected disqualifications in the Oscar race for Original Score on Tuesday. The “Fences” Ensemble nomination should give them hope a Best Picture nod is still in the cards (borderline) and Amy Adams may have turned into a safe bet for a Best Actress nomination.
SAG basically informed Academy watchers that the Acting branch is going to be fully behind “Manchester by the Sea” and “Moonlight.” Throw those two films in with “La La Land” as Best Picture nominee locks at the moment.
SAG proved this pundit’s point that Octavia Spencer is the Oscar player in Best Supporting Actress for “Hidden Figures” and not co-star Janelle Monae. Spencer also earned the equivalent Globes nod from the HFPA.
Keeping all that in mind here are some thoughts on the individual categories including the television ones.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
CASEY AFFLECK / Lee Chandler – “MANCHESTER BY THE SEA” (Amazon Studios and Roadside Attractions)
ANDREW GARFIELD / Desmond Doss – “HACKSAW RIDGE” (Lionsgate)
RYAN GOSLING / Sebastian –“LA LA LAND” (Lionsgate)
VIGGO MORTENSEN / Ben – “CAPTAIN FANTASTIC” (Bleecker Street)
DENZEL WASHINGTON / Troy Maxson – “FENCES” (Paramount Pictures)
Lowdown: This is your likely Best Actor five although the question remains whether Tom Hanks (“Sully”) or Edgerton can supplant Mortensen with Oscar voters.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
AMY ADAMS / Louise Banks – “ARRIVAL” (Paramount Pictures)
EMILY BLUNT / Rachel – “THE GIRL ON THE TRAIN” (Universal Pictures)
NATALIE PORTMAN / Jackie Kennedy – “JACKIE” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
EMMA STONE / Mia – “LA LA LAND” (Lionsgate)
MERYL STREEP / Florence Foster Jenkins – “FLORENCE FOSTER JENKINS” (Paramount Pictures)
Lowdown: Blunt’s surprise here has already been mentioned, but the bigger news is Adams. Streep is still questionable, but she isn’t.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
MAHERSHALA ALI / Juan – “MOONLIGHT” (A24)
JEFF BRIDGES / Marcus Hamilton – “HELL OR HIGH WATER” (CBS Films)
HUGH GRANT / St Clair Bayfield – “FLORENCE FOSTER JENKINS” (Paramount Pictures)
LUCAS HEDGES / Patrick Chandler – “MANCHESTER BY THE SEA” (Amazon Studios and Roadside Attractions)
DEV PATEL / Saroo Brierley – “LION” (The Weinstein Company)
Lowdown: Huge sigh of relief for The Weinstein Company that “Lion’s” Dev Patel made the cut. That was the one nod they needed and the got it. Could “Nocturnal Animals'” Michael Shannon crack this field for Oscar? Possibly, but the bigger question is whether its Hugh Grant or Simon Helberg from “Florence Foster Jenkins.”
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
VIOLA DAVIS / Rose Maxson – “FENCES” (Paramount Pictures)
NAOMIE HARRIS / Paula – “MOONLIGHT” (A24)
NICOLE KIDMAN / Sue Brierley – “LION” (The Weinstein Company)
OCTAVIA SPENCER / Dorothy Vaughan – “HIDDEN FIGURES” (20th Century Fox)
MICHELLE WILLIAMS / Randi Chandler – “MANCHESTER BY THE SEA” (Amazon Studios and Roadside Attractions)
Lowdown: Frankly no true surprises here unless you weren’t expecting Spencer.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
CAPTAIN FANTASTIC (Bleecker Street)
ANNALISE BASSO / Vespyr
SHREE CROOKS / Zaja
ANN DOWD / Abigail
KATHRYN HAHN / Harper
NICHOLAS HAMILTON / Rellian
SAMANTHA ISLER / Kielyr
FRANK LANGELLA / Jack
GEORGE MacKAY / Bo
ERIN MORIARTY / Claire
VIGGO MORTENSEN / Ben
MISSI PYLE / Ellen
CHARLIE SHOTWELL / Nai
STEVE ZAHN / Dave
FENCES (Paramount Pictures)
JOVAN ADEPO / Cory
VIOLA DAVIS / Rose Maxson
STEPHEN McKINLEY HENDERSON / Jim Bono
RUSSELL HORNSBY / Lyons
SANIYYA SIDNEY / Raynell
DENZEL WASHINGTON / Troy Maxson
MYKELTI WILLIAMSON / Gabriel
HIDDEN FIGURES (20th Century Fox)
MAHERSHALA ALI / Col. Jim Johnson
KEVIN COSTNER / Al Harrison
KIRSTEN DUNST / Vivian Mitchell
TARAJI P. HENSON / Katherine G. Johnson
ALDIS HODGE / Levi Jackson
JANELLE MONÁE / Mary Jackson
JIM PARSONS / Paul Stafford
GLEN POWELL / John Glenn
OCTAVIA SPENCER / Dorothy Vaughan
MANCHESTER BY THE SEA (Amazon Studios and Roadside Attractions)
CASEY AFFLECK / Lee Chandler
MATTHEW BRODERICK / Jeffrey
KYLE CHANDLER / Joe Chandler
LUCAS HEDGES / Patrick Chandler
GRETCHEN MOL / Elise
MICHELLE WILLIAMS / Randi Chandler
MOONLIGHT (A24)
MAHERSHALA ALI / Juan
NAOMIE HARRIS / Paula
ANDRÉ HOLLAND / Kevin
JHARREL JEROME / Kevin (16)
JANELLE MONÁE / Teresa
TREVANTE RHODES / Black
ASHTON SANDERS / Chiron
Lowdown: Some recent comparative history since Oscar expanded the Best Picture field to more than five possible nominees for you to consider. It should be noted that just two of the nominated ensembles last year earned Best Picture nods. In 2015 all five did. In 2014 only three did. In 2013 just four. In 2012 only four. In 2011 all five took Best Picture nods. In 2010 just four. Was last year an outlier? Whatever the case these nods keep Best Picture nominee hopes for “Fences” and “Hidden Figures” alive. And, no, “Captain Fantastic” is not getting a Best Picture nod.
TELEVISION PROGRAMS
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series
RIZ AHMED / Nasir “Naz” Khan – “THE NIGHT OF” (HBO)
STERLING K. BROWN / Christopher Darden – “THE PEOPLE V. O.J. SIMPSON: AMERICAN CRIME STORY” (FX Networks)
BRYAN CRANSTON / President Lyndon B. Johnson – “ALL THE WAY” (HBO)
JOHN TURTURRO / John Stone – “THE NIGHT OF” (HBO)
COURTNEY B. VANCE / Johnnie Cochran – “THE PEOPLE V. O.J. SIMPSON: AMERICAN CRIME STORY” (FX Networks)
Lowdown: These nominees look awfully familiar don’t they? No big surprises here.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series
BRYCE DALLAS HOWARD / Lacie – “BLACK MIRROR” (Netflix)
FELICITY HUFFMAN / Leslie Graham – “AMERICAN CRIME” (ABC)
AUDRA McDONALD / Billie Holiday – “LADY DAY AT EMERSON’S BAR & GRILL” (HBO)
SARAH PAULSON / Marcia Clark – “THE PEOPLE V. O.J. SIMPSON: AMERICAN CRIME STORY” (FX Networks)
KERRY WASHINGTON / Anita Hill – “CONFIRMATION” (HBO)
Lowdown: Some nice recognition for Howard for “Black Mirror” (SAG voters really love their Netflix!). The other four nominees were expected.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
STERLING K. BROWN / Randall Pearson – “THIS IS US” (NBC)
PETER DINKLAGE / Tyrion Lannister – “GAME OF THRONES” (HBO)
JOHN LITHGOW / Winston Churchill – “THE CROWN” (Netflix)
RAMI MALEK / Elliot Alderson – “MR. ROBOT” (USA Network)
KEVIN SPACEY / Frank Underwood – “HOUSE OF CARDS” (Netflix)
Lowdown: SAG voters tend to like the familiar which means yet another nod for Spacey and a fourth one in this category for Dinklage. Brown sneaks in as “This Is Us” truly is beginning to make waves on the awards scene and Lithgow looks like he’ll be a regular for “The Crown” as well.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
MILLIE BOBBY BROWN / Eleven – “STRANGER THINGS” (Netflix)
CLAIRE FOY / Queen Elizabeth II – “THE CROWN” (Netflix)
THANDIE NEWTON / Maeve Millay – “WESTWORLD” (HBO)
WINONA RYDER / Joyce Byers – “STRANGER THINGS” (Netflix)
ROBIN WRIGHT / Claire Underwood – “HOUSE OF CARDS” (Netflix)
Lowdown: All you need to know is there are four Netflix nominees here. No disrespect to the streaming service or these performances whatsoever, but did we mention SAG voters really love their Netflix?
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series
ANTHONY ANDERSON / Andre Johnson – “BLACK-ISH” (ABC)
TITUSS BURGESS / Titus Andromedon – “UNBREAKABLE KIMMY SCHMIDT” (Netflix)
TY BURRELL / Phil Dunphy – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)
WILLIAM H. MACY / Frank Gallagher – “SHAMELESS” (Showtime)
JEFFREY TAMBOR / Maura Pfefferman – “TRANSPARENT” (Amazon)
Lowdown: Thomas Middleditch (“Silicon Valley”) and Will Forte (“Last Man on Earth”) are the forgotten nominees here. SAG voters really love Burrell and “Modern Family.” This is his sixth nomination (he won in 2015).
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
UZO ADUBA / Suzanne “Crazy Eyes” Warren – “ORANGE IS THE NEW BLACK” (Netflix)
JANE FONDA / Grace Hanson – “GRACE AND FRANKIE” (Netflix)
ELLIE KEMPER / Kimmy Schmidt – “UNBREAKABLE KIMMY SCHMIDT” (Netflix)
JULIA LOUIS-DREYFUS / President Selina Meyer – “VEEP” (HBO)
LILY TOMLIN / Frankie Bergstein – “GRACE AND FRANKIE” (Netflix)
Lowdown: Four Netflix nominees as Tracee Ellis Ross (“Black-ish”), Rachel Bloom (“Crazy Ex-Girlfriend”), Gina Rodriguez (“Jane the Virgin”) and Issa Rae (“Insecure”) are snubbed.
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series
THE CROWN (Netflix)
DOWNTON ABBEY (Masterpiece/PBS)
GAME OF THRONES (HBO)
STRANGER THINGS (Netflix)
WESTWORLD (HBO)
Lowdown: Again with the “Downton Abbey”! This is its fifth nomination, but also thankfully its last (the venerable British melodrama has won three times).
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series
THE BIG BANG THEORY (CBS)
BLACK-ISH (ABC)
MODERN FAMILY (ABC)
ORANGE IS THE NEW BLACK (Netflix)
VEEP (HBO)
Lowdown: “Black-ish” finally made the cut but that was at the shocking expense of “Transparent” which, arguably, just completed its best season to date. “Orange” won this last year, but something suggests “Veep” might take it in January.
STUNT ENSEMBLES
Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
“CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR” (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
“DOCTOR STRANGE” (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
“HACKSAW RIDGE” (Lionsgate)
“JASON BOURNE” (Universal Pictures)
“NOCTURNAL ANIMALS” (Focus Features)
Lowdown: Listen, I’m a big fan of Tom Ford’s drama, but a stunt ensemble nod? Did voters really dislike “Batman V Superman” and “Suicide Squad” that much? (Yeah, they probably did.)
Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Comedy or Drama Series
“GAME OF THRONES” (HBO)
“MARVEL’S DAREDEVIL” (Netflix)
“MARVEL’S LUKE CAGE” (Netflix)
“THE WALKING DEAD” (AMC)
“WESTWORLD” (HBO)
Lowdown: This is a pick ’em, right? Hard to argue with any of these winning.
The 2017 SAG Awards will be handed out on Sunday, Jan. 29, 2017 on TNT and TBS.
