It’s only October 10th and if you’re anyone at Warner Bros. associated with the awards season campaign for “Joker” you probably are ready for a vacation. The journey of Todd Phillips‘ vision for the longtime DC comics character has already had some massive highs and some head-scratching lows. Will the hot button takes on the film itself finally settle now that it’s in theatres? For some more context, let’s review the past eight weeks (yes, just eight weeks), shall we?
Already pegged as an Oscar player by fans over a year ago following the first image of Joaquin Phoenix in full Joker makeup, the film debuted at the 2019 Venice Film Festival to strong reviews (the Metacritic score was over 80 at the time) and stunned many by winning the top prize, the prestigious Golden Lion. It became the first studio-produced film to win that honor since Warner Bros.’ “Michael Collins” in 1996 and landed at the Toronto International Film Fest ready to cement its status among the best films of the year. And like Batman foiling one of Joker’s wild escapades in the comic books, the picture hit a rough patch. Despite almost universal praise for Phoenix’s performance, the critics in Toronto had a much more adverse reaction to the picture and by the time opening day arrived its Metascore had dropped to a not-so-great 59 (for those counting at home its Rotten Tomatoes score is at 69%). That’s not a death knell for a Best Picture nominee, but it’s certainly not something to celebrate as most nominees score at least a 73 on Metacritic. Oh, but wait. This roller coaster ride wasn’t over yet.
Facing criticism over the film’s potential to incite violence and memories of the shooting at an Aurora, Colorado screening of the last Batman film, “The Dark Knight Rises,” in theater owners increased security for opening weekend. While that news cycle was occurring, Phillips gave an interview where he credited the existence of “woke” culture as the reason for his departure from the R-rated comedies (“The Hangover,” “Due Date”) he was previously best known for. That did not go over well on social media or with a number of high-profile comedians. And, mostly overseas, there is a kerfuffle over the use of a song by conflicted pedophile Gary Glitter in a scene. Luckily, good old fashioned ticket buyers helped change the narrative.
Not only did “Joker” set records with its $96 million opening, an all-timer for October, but it actually overperformed the original Sunday estimate by $3 million (that’s a huge margin in the distribution world). The film reportedly cost just $55 million and at press time had already earned $258 million worldwide over its first four days. At worst, it should earn over $500 million worldwide and has $700 million-plus in its sights. Despite controversy and what turned out to be mixed reviews, “Joker” found a massive audience. In fact, it’s an insane opening considering that unlike almost every other superhero or comic book adaptation this movie is pretty much a straight drama with mild thriller elements. And now, it’s AMPAS’ turn.
Members of The Academy had their official screening of “Joker” on Saturday. The Academy’s Wilshire Theater was reportedly just 70% full (I was told 50% full of actual members by one reliable source) and it did earn applause at the end (tepid or not, applause is applause). That being said, the film is finding some champions among The Academy. Michael Moore has spoken out in support of it. Sean Baker is a fan. And actors are gaga for Phoenix’s performance, as they should be. And, as any Oscar watcher knows, you currently need just a good 400-500 or so first-place votes to secure that Best Picture nomination. It’s about passion and always has been. Can Warner Bros and their awards team generate enough to make it to the final nine (or eight or seven)? For all the disparaging opinions over “Green Book” winning Best Picture last year, don’t forget a movie shot in black and white, spoken in Spanish and distributed primarily on a streaming service made the cut and earned 10 nominations overall. A movie whose director was publicly fired during production and somehow still got credit earned a nomination. A Marvel Studios billion-dollar blockbuster earned a nomination for the first time. This is an Academy that is younger, more diverse and more international. The tides may not have turned enough to help films such as “Roma” cross the finish line, but you see the influence of the new members across the board in nominations. And, don’t forget. Despite his woke comments Phillips has been working with a lot of different people (may AMPAS members now) in this town for almost 20 years. And Bradley Cooper has a full producing credit and he knows how to work the circuit like the best of them. And, um, no, er, joke, all those factors could actually help “Joker” make the cut.
Maybe.
Note: These rankings are currently in regards to the best chance for a nomination. We’ll switch to rankings for the big prize in December.
October 10, 2019
1. “The Irishman”
Well, New York loves it. I mean they loved, loved, loved it and Netflix is doing great things such as screening it for the public at The Belasco on Broadway. But is it really the frontrunner? I mean…if you want it to be?
2. “Marriage Story”
Unexpectedly becoming the slow, but steady Best Picture player of the season. That’s often a good thing.
3. “Once Upon A Time In Hollywood”
Once again for the people in the back, “Could this be the Tarantino film that finally goes all the way?”
4. “Ford v Ferrari”
Getting lost just a tad, but gearing up for a big November.
5. “Bombshell”
All should be revealed soon. Maybe.
6. “Parasite”
Finally hearing insiders and AMPAS members discussing multiple category nominations outside of International Film, but NEON needs to be screaming “BEST PICTURE” from the rafters. Also, is there an acting nod here? Just asking for a friend.
7. “1917”
I mean, are you convinced now?
8. “The Farewell”
If A24 ran FYC ads that say “Don’t forget: It made you cry” would that be too on the nose?
9. “Jojo Rabbit”
Let’s see how the opening day reviews and box office goes before you seriously discount it’s chances, shall we?
10. “Judy”
Incredible returns for LD Entertainment and Roadside Attractions, but is it more than just a Renee Zellweger, Costumes and Hair and Makeup play?
ALMOST THERE…OR MAYBE NOT
“The Two Popes”
Evergreen question till the end of time: “Can any studio seriously push three Best Picture players?”
“A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”
Waiting for the AMPAS reaction, but this is one player that has a chance to soar.
“Hustlers”
JLo is looking like a safe Supporting Actress nod at the moment (and we emphasize “at the moment”). We think STX is in it for a Best Picture nod, but are they?
“Little Women”
We’ll see it at some point, pt. 1
“Joker”
Christmas came early for Warner Bros. and Village Roadshow.
“A Hidden Life”
There are fans out there. Still waiting to determine if enough of them are in the Academy.
“Dark Water”
We gotta see it at some point, pt. 2
“Rocketman”
Is Dexter Fletcher’s critical and box office hit Still Standing or just a Candle in the Wind?
“Us”
If you don’t think this movie had a bigger cultural impact than most of these contenders I’ve got an investment opportunity in Blockchain content distribution that you’re gonna go apesh*t for.
“Cats”
Never discount the love for digitally augumented actors singing the smooth stylings of Andrew Lloyd Webber.
More Oscar predictions
Best Picture
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Director
