‘Game Of Thrones,’ ‘Mr. Robot,’ ‘O.J. Simpson’ & More: Predicting The 2016 Emmy Winners

Outstanding Writing For A Drama Series

Joel Fields & Joe Weisberg – “The Americans” (Episode: “Persona Non Grata”)
Julian Fellowes – “Downton Abbey” (Episode: “Episode 8”)
David Benioff & D.B. Weiss – “Game OF Thrones” (Episode: “Battle Of The Bastards”)
Robert King & Michelle King – “The Good Wife” (Episode: “End”)
Sam Esmail – “Mr. Robot” (Episode: “eps1.0_hellofriend.mov”)
Marti Noxon & Sarah Gertrude Shapiro – “UnREAL” (Episode: “Return”)

Unlike the Oscars, where the screenplay awards can often be seen as a consolation prize for movies that people like, but not enough to give other awards to, the drama writing Emmy often follows other general trends (though a win for “Friday Night Lights” a few years back does signify that this can sometimes happen). That said, “Game Of Thrones” (which won last year) might be at a disadvantage here because of the action-heavy nature of the episode in question, so we think this will either be where “The Americans” finally gets recognized, or perhaps a chance to honor the ambition of “Mr. Robot.” We’re going with “The Americans” for now, mostly because we just love it so god damn much.

Outstanding Directing For A Drama Series

Michael Engler – “Downton Abbey” (Episode: “Episode 9” )
Miguel Sapochnik – “Game Of Thrones” (Episode: “Battle Of The Bastards”)
Jack Bender – “Game Of Thrones” (Episode: “The Door”)
Lesli Linka Glatter – “Homeland” (Episode: “The Tradition Of Hospitality”)
Steven Soderbergh – “The Knick” (Episode: “This Is All We Are”)
David Hollander – “Ray Donovan” (Episode: “Exsuscito”)

“Game Of Thrones” faces no such problem when it comes to the direction category, though: “Battle Of The Bastards” was the show’s most cinematic hour, if not its finest, and should be the easy winner here. There are other possibilities for sure — Steven Sodebergh’s impeccable work, or “Lost” veteran Jack Bender’s equally good direction of “Game Of Thrones” ep “The Door” — but this should be Miguel Sapochnik by several lengths.

Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Drama Series

Emilia Clarke – “Game Of Thrones”
Lena Headey – “Game Of Thrones”
Maggie Smith – “Downton Abbey”
Maura Tierney – “The Affair”
Maisie Williams – “Game Of Thrones”
Constance Zimmer – “UnREAL”

It’s perhaps appropriate for a season in which “Game Of Thrones” more than ever proved to be a series about the death of the patriarchy, that its women take up half of the available slots here. And with recent winner Uzo Aduba sitting it out (the last “Orange Is The New Black” season bowed too late to be eligible), and the other fine performances not looking particularly threatening — “UnREAL” may not be taken seriously enough, though Zimmer’s amazing, Smith hasn’t won in several years, and “The Affair” is otherwise ignored — it should be one of the Westeros women. Daenerys didn’t have her strongest season, so we think Clarke’s probably out: Headey seems the most likely, but don’t rule out Maisie Williams, who had some very effective material with the theater troupe this year.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in A Drama Series

Jonathan Banks – “Better Call Saul”
Peter Dinklage – “Game Of Thrones”
Kit Harington – “Game Of Thrones”
Michael Kelly – “House Of Cards”
Ben Mendelsohn – “Bloodline”
Jon Voight – “Ray Donovan”

Another interesting category, in that those actors who traditionally have looked strongest — two-time winner Dinklage, and the great Ben Mendelsohn — had virtually nothing to do on their shows this year, one of the major downsides of the TV Academy’s repetitive voting. Maybe this is the year when Jonathan Banks gets his due, but after a Jon Snow-centric season, most seem to think that Kit Harington will win. King Of The North!

Outstanding Lead Actor On A Drama Series

Kyle Chandler – “Bloodline”
Rami Malek – “Mr. Robot”
Bob Odenkirk – “Better Call Saul”
Matthew Rhys – “The Americans”
Liev Schreiber – “Ray Donovan”
Kevin Spacey – “House Of Cards”

More than any other drama category, the absence of “Mad Men” leaves something of a vacuum. Kyle Chandler is the only previous winner, albeit for a different show, while Spacey’s been up for it the last three years (and “House Of Cards” had an up year), and Schreiber and Odenkirk return for a second time at bat. The Emmys seem to have finally gotten “The Americans,” but if it’s going to be one of the two newcomers — and we think it probably will — Rami Malek’s twitchy turn on “Mr. Robot” feels like the better bet.

Outstanding Lead Actress On A Drama Series
Claire Danes – “Homeland”
Viola Davis – “How To Get Away With Murder”
Taraji P Henson – “Empire”
Tatiana Maslany – “Orphan Black”
Keri Russell – “The Americans”
Robin Wright – “House Of Cards”

One of the toughest categories this year, and it’s possible to see almost anyone winning here (bar perhaps Danes, whose show isn’t as buzzy as it once was). Davis is the defending champion, though Henson is a tough competitor (though a creative slump on “Empire” might make that difficult). Robin Wright’s been waiting in the wings for a long while, and this could finally be her year, but in one of our bolder/more suicidal predictions, we’re going to back Keri Russell — an old TV hand doing the finest work of her career, and on a show that critics have been banging on about for so long that the Emmy voters finally decided to pay attention.

Outstanding Drama Series

“The Americans”
“Better Call Saul”
“Downton Abbey”
“Game Of Thrones”
“Homeland”
“House Of Cards”
“Mr. Robot”

Even the final year of “Mad Men” couldn’t stop “Game Of Thrones” for winning the prize for the first time last year, and it’s hard to see what could beat it again. “Downton Abbey,” “Homeland” and “House Of Cards” are mostly here out of habit, “Better Call Saul” is well liked but maybe not well loved, “Mr. Robot”’s dazzle may have been hurt by a lacklustre second season, and voters are still adjusting to “The Americans.” “Game Of Thrones,” meanwhile, had one of its very best seasons, culminating in a few final episodes that reach something of a peak for the series. With two more years to come, it’s possible to see it winning every time until its conclusion now (though next year, it’ll air too late for eligibility, opening the door for something else).

Agree? Disagree? Let us know in the comments.