Fox Searchlight
Major players we’ve seen: “The Shape of Water,” “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” “Battle of the Sexes,” “Steps”
Major players we haven’t: None
Biggest potential: “The Shape of Water” to win Best Picture, Guillermo del Toro Best Director or Sally Hawkins Best Actress
Biggest cause for concern: Will ‘Three Billboards’ get lost in the Best Picture race?
Unsolicited advice: Fox Searchlight is a steady ship that knows what they are doing. “Shape” will play out organically and they’ll go for the win in phase one (not phase two) when they need to. If it’s loved, it’ll win Best Picture. If it’s not, Fox Searchlight will understand. They have a bunch of these this decade already and unlike some of their competitors don’t stress over the small stuff (at least not publicly). Meanwhile, find a way to frame “Three Billboards” as a “movie of the moment” because it is just as much one as “Shape” or “Battle” and it’s it’s not part of the consumer marketing campaign (not yet at least).
Universal Pictures
Major players we’ve seen: “Get Out”
Major players we haven’t: “Thank You For Your Service”
Biggest potential: “Get Out” for Best Picture and Jordan Peele for Best Director and/or Best Original Screenplay
Biggest cause for concern: Complacency in counting on a “Get Out” nod.
Unsolicited advice: We’re not saying start next week, but it might not be a bad idea to ramp up the campaign for “Get Out” sooner rather than later. Don’t wait until mid-November when there are tons of distractions, because it’s such a wide open race. Also, “Despicable Me 3” has a great shot at Animated Feature Film so its worth a push. It’s a very, very weak class this year, and somehow everyone has forgotten “DM2” was Illumination‘s first nomination.
Sony Pictures
Major players we’ve seen: “Roman J. Israel, Esq.,” “Baby Driver”
Major players we haven’t: “All The Money In The World”
Biggest potential: Denzel Washington earns an eighth acting Oscar nod for ‘Roman’
Biggest cause for concern: Will the reaction to the movie itself affect Denzel’s chances for back-to-back Best Actor nominations?
Unsolicited advice: Frame ‘Israel’ completely around Washington’s performance. How about Viola Davis moderating a Q&A with him about his performance in front of packed guild audience at the Village Theater? Just a thought (I mean, it worked for Paramount last year on “Fences”). As for Ridley Scott’s “All The Money,” if Michelle Williams is a legit Best Actress contender consider screening the movie before AFI (if it’s ready, and assuming that’s where the film will premiere). She needs to be a centerpiece in this competitive race earlier rather than later (same for goes for the heavily transformed Kevin Spacey — see the new trailer).
In regards to “Baby Driver,” this isn’t the year to be trying to get into the Original Screenplay category, but if Edgar Wright works it (we know he will) it can’t hurt.
Sony Pictures Classics
Major players we’ve seen: “Call Me By Your Name,” “Film Stars Don’t Die In Liverpool,” “A Fantastic Woman”
Major players we haven’t: None
Biggest potential: “Call Me For Your Name” for Best Picture, Best Director and Best Actor.
Biggest cause for concern: Straight white media members who think ‘Call Me’ is overhyped cause they didn’t see it before TIFF or the fall festivals and will admit that to you (don’t get me started on this…).
Unsolicited advice: Spend, spend, spend on “Call Me” for the release campaign. Do not throw it out there hoping it will do what it will “organically” in release (“Whiplash” comebacks are extremely rare). Make it a box office event so the members who might not want to watch the screener before Xmas don’t have a choice. Also, go with social media ads (that A24 trick) to aim for younger Academy voters and please release a new trailer in a contemporary fashion (we’re asking out of love for the movie, guys). As for “Film Stars,” fight for Jamie Bell. If enough SAG and HFPA members see the movie he could be a major dark horse. And, it’s more about convincing her, but perhaps push Annette Bening to Supporting Actress? Maybe? If it worked for Alicia Vikander why not the former Academy Governor?
Walt Disney Studios
Major players we’ve seen: “Beauty and the Beast”
Major players we haven’t: “Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” “Coco”
Biggest potential: “Coco” to win Best Animated Feature Film.
Biggest cause for concern: The whole “Coco”/“Book of Life” comparisons.
Unsolicited advice: If “The Last Jedi” legitimately has a shot at anything, do not wait to screen until after HFPA and SAG Awards deadlines. Forget the spoilers getting out. The audience is gonna come no matter what. Give the movie a legit shot at awards hopes outside of Visual Effects and the Sound category if they’re deserving. As for “Beauty,” consider an installation event somewhere in LA focused on the film’s costumes. Disney rarely does something like that, but it would be smart to do something special to remind the Costumes branch and overall voting membership. For “Coco,” don’t pretend the “Book of Life” comparisons aren’t there (mostly because people are already talking about it). Respect the previous film and meet it head on. Ignoring it will only make it look worse to the press who you need on your side in a very, very weak Animated Film race.
Warner Bros.
Major players we’ve seen: “Dunkirk,” “Wonder Woman”
Major players we haven’t: “Blade Runner 2049,” “The 15:17 to Paris”
Biggest potential: “Dunkirk” to win Best Picture or Christopher Nolan to win Best Director
Biggest cause for concern: Finding that acting nomination for “Dunkirk”
Unsolicited advice: Not much actually. If there is critical love for “Blade Runner 2049,” don’t give up on Denis Villeneuve for a Best Director nod. That branch and the industry pretty much love him after “Arrival.”
The Weinstein Company
Major players we’ve seen: “Wind River,” “The Upside,” “The Current War”
Major players we haven’t: None.
Biggest potential: “The Upside” at the Globes.
Biggest cause for concern: You don’t have a legit Best Picture player.
Unsolicited advice: Probably not what you want to hear, but it’s obvious. “The Current War” is simply not a player. Move it to spring and save yourself money on an awards campaign. Release “The Upside” at Thanksgiving or Christmas and make a ton of money. You might even get a Globe nod for Best Picture – Comedy or Musical. But don’t delude yourself into thinking its anything more than that. As for “Wind River,” Taylor Sheridan has an excellent chance of sneaking through the Original Screenplay scrum like he did last year and Gil Birmingham deserves legit attention for Best Supporting Actor.
Look for updated individual category breakdowns early next week.
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After seeing Darkest Hour, Downsizing, Hostile, Battle of the Sexes, Shape of Water, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool and Lady Bird at Telluride, I agree with most of your assessment for noms but no “locks” for wins. I didn’t leave with the feeling of destiny like I did after watching Argo or King’s Speech. Oldman for Best Actor is the closest but the other four slots are still open.
In an open year like this, it is a good time to expand the field to the entire year like everyone proclaims every year. So, seeing Get Out listed is refreshing. But you should have included James McAvoy for his performance in Split in your recommendation to Universal.
To quote Playlist’s review – “Though McAvoy doesn’t get the chance to show us all 24 personalities within Kevin’s body, he does get to display about a third of them, each a distinct character with his or her own voice, movements and carriage. In the film’s last act, he gets to run through a number in a breathless sequence. If “Split” were a drama released in the final months of the year, he’d be getting awards talk, but its “lesser” genre status means that he likely won’t receive the attention the performance(s) deserve.”
Think that still applies and Get Out nullifies the genre comment, plus Split had a larger world wide box office.
Do you think Sally Hawkins could win like Emma Stone won? By giving a magical performance in a strong movie.
Or is she more subtle and internalized like Amy Adams in Arrival?
So the actress race is packed but what about actor? It seems to be lacking. From what I’ve read, Gary Oldman and Denzel Washington are locks, but who else do we got? Jake Gylenhaal? Christian Bale? Daniel Day maybe. I think all the male roles getting buzz will be considered supporting. Sam Rockwell, Armie Hammer, Willem Dafoe, Ben Mendelson, Steve Carrell, Michael Shannon, Christoph Waltz, Mark Rylance.
Denzel is not a lock anymore. In fact, he may be an alternate choice at best. Bale depends on whether or not Hostiles even gets released this year. Right on about supporting actor though.
So much to comment on! Piece by piece, let’s start with A24. You seem oddly subdued on Lady Bird/Ronan. You seem to be in the minority on this one. I do think some who think Ronan is an instant Oscar winner (looking at you, Anne Thompson) may be jumping the gun, but I can definitely see her getting a nomination. I agree about Metcalf, and don’t underestimate Gerwig. She’s been on an upswing for years now, and they love an actor/actress who can also write/direct. I think she is a likely nominee for Original Screenplay. As contentious as it may be. And if it finds the momentum, could even sneak in for Best Picture. Also, definitely agree that The Florida Project has at least nominations for Best Picture and Original Screenplay (okay, I see why you’re concerned, haha) in tow, and potentially a winner in Willem Dafoe for Supporting Actor. They do love their vets in that category.
Annapurna is probably out of it. Poor Detroit and especially Bigelow, who was snubbed for Zero Dark Thirty. Maybe you’re right about the SAG push. If they play their cards right, it could work. Meanwhile, what is this Last Flag Flying for Best Picture talk. Seriously? That looks like a pleasant non-contender to me. At best, its only hopes are for acting: Maybe Cranston can sneak in during this weak year, but Fishburne and Carell will have difficulty. No for Picture or for Screenplay, at all. Ahhh yes, the 2 Wonder-movies. I wonder (heh) what Wonderstruck can accomplish. I feel like Julianne Moore is a very likely nominee for a weak category. Dual role, aging, etc. It’s perfect Oscarbait. Meanwhile, as soon as I checked out the IMDb page for Wonder Wheel, I had mixed feelings. It looked a bit fluffy to me, so I expected a throwaway comedy. Then it turns out its a drama, so I thought “Could this be Winslet’s Blue Jasmine?” Now I honestly have no idea. But the buzz being bad sorta pleases me, since it confirmed my initial gut instincts. That being said, I adore Winslet and wouldn’t mind if it worked for her at least. But since this race is SO crowded, eh, Idk. As for The Big Sick, can it go all the way to a BP nomination? Or is screenplay its only hope? Ray Romano probably has no shot, but I bet Holly Hunter does.
Anne Thompson hasn’t stated Ronan is a winner but definitely a nominee! Which she will be!
Oh okay, I remember reading in one of her excerpts that she thought Ronan was the most likely winner. (If the Oscars were tomorrow, I think Sally Hawkins would be more likely.) I think Ronan is most likely going to win the Golden Globe for Comedy/Musical though, unless Frances McDormand is in the same category. Then it’s a toss-up! I hope to see the trifecta of Hawkins/Ronan/McDormand all nominated at the Oscars. And ITA about Gerwig. She’s amassed much appreciation and respect over the years for her multitude of talents. She might’ve had a chance with Frances Ha if it were released in 2014 instead of 2013, a stacked year. But I can see her being one of the top Original Screenplay contenders.
It’s bit ignorant to dismiss Ronan when it’s clear she”ll be nominated, and who knows maybe even win!