None of this really works does it? When it comes to the Oscars, the old formulas for picking the Best Picture winner have sort of been thrown out the window this season. No film won more than one major guild honor. Sure, that’s happened before, but it doesn’t help that the only film that won a guild honor and took BAFTA’s top prize, “Roma,“ is a foreign language film. In case you missed it, the Academy has never awarded Best Picture to a film that wasn’t in the English language over the course of its illustrious 90-year history. But, wait. There’s more.
The people’s choice, “Black Panther,”won the SAG ensemble honor, but no other major guild honors. Its director didn’t get a DGA nod or a directing nod from the Academy. The Marvel Studios release didn’t earn acting or editing nominations either. Did we mention that no superhero movie has ever won Best Picture? (Then again “Black Panther” is the first nominated.) And yet, there is a strong contingent of members voting for it. Can the preferential ballot do the trick or is it just a daydream?
And then there’s “Green Book.” The controversy about co-screenwriter and producer Nick Vallelonga was very real, but most members simply didn’t care. Even the normally progressive Writer’s Branch still nominated it for Original Screenplay. It also earned every key nomination you need, in theory, except a Directing nod, but Peter Farrelly did earn a DGA nomination so there’s some love there. Most importantly, it won the PGA Award which is the only guild honor that uses the same preferential ballot that the Academy uses. Could it be the next “Argo“? The PGA win didn’t help “La La Land” or “The Big Short,” but those that love it still love it.
Strangely, the three films that actually have every key nomination you need to win Best Picture (Directing, Writing, Editing, and Acting nominations) “The Favourite,” “Vice,” and “BlacKkKlansman,” are perceived as also-rans. Neither took any of the precursors, but statistically should be right in the mix. Emphasis on “statistically.”
Even with the preferential ballot when it comes down to it passion rules the Academy. Sometimes that’s demonstrated by what they “love” (“Argo,” “The King’s Speech,” “Slumdog Millionaire“) or what members think deserves it the most (“12 Years a Slave,” “Moonlight,” “Spotlight“) or their pick lands somewhere in between (“The Shape of Water,” “The Artist“). This year that passion seems to be strongest with “Roma.” Yes, there is a contingent of AMPAS members who will protest vote against Netflix because they believe a true theatrical release is necessary to win the Academy’s top prize (hello Steven Spielberg). Is that enough to derail the almost universally respected drama of the year though? The movie earned not one, but two acting nominations for actors no one had ever heard of before the film hit the Venice Film Festival (Yalitza Aparicio, Marina de Tavira). If that ain’t passion from the Academy’s largest branch, I’m not sure what is.
Frankly, this has been the hardest Best Picture race to gauge in the 15 years I’ve been covering this beat as a professional writer and journalist. My gut says the Academy will go with “Green Book” or “Black Panther,” but my mind says “Roma.” Do clearer heads prevail? We’re going with “Roma.”
Keeping all that in mind here are some educated predictions for who should win what at the host-less 91st Academy Awards on Sunday.
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Actress In A Supporting Role
Amy Adams, “Vice”
Marina de Tavira, “Roma”
Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”
Who will win: Regina King
Who should win: Regina King or Rachel Weisz
Upset: Rachel Weisz
Lowdown: The quandary here is twofold. Have enough Academy members watched “If Beale Street Could Talk”? It’s lack of a Best Picture nomination and snub in specific categories suggests that’s a “no.” Moreover, is King truly popular enough in the industry overall that enough voters will pick her based on her previous work and the ton of critic awards honors she took for this performance? Moreover, can Weisz overcome having her “Favourite” co-star Stone in this category to siphon off some of her votes? Weisz pulled a win out at the BAFTAs but King wasn’t nominated there. It’s a very close race, but ask any Emmy pundit and they’ll tell you do not bet against King at this point and we aren’t here.
Costume Design
Mary Zophres, “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs”
Alexandra Byrne, “Mary Queen of Scots”
Ruth Carter, “Black Panther”
Sandy Powell, “The Favourite”
Sandy Powell, “Mary Poppins Returns”
Who will win: Sandy Powell (“The Favourite”)
Who should win: Sandy Powell or Ruth Carter
Upset: Ruth Carter
Lowdown: Powell could lose this category if enough voters pick her work in “Mary Poppins Returns” over “The Favourite,” but the later is so strong and so fits the mold of how this category usually sings its hard not to pick her. Moreover, Carter’s work in Ryan Coogler‘s breakout was crazy impressive but the closest thing to a superhero movie to win here would be “Mad Max: Fury Road” (a movie the Academy adored overall) or”The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King.” Those are tough odds, but Carter could easily take it.
Sound Editing
“Black Panther,” Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker
“Bohemian Rhapsody,” John Warhurst
“First Man,” Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan
“A Quiet Place,” Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl
“Roma,” Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay
Who will win: John Warhurst
Who should win: Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay
Upset: Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan
Lowdown: This is the more difficult of the two sound categories to pick, but most members will probably select “Bohemian” because like the general public they always confuse the difference between Editing and Mixing (really).
Sound Mixing
“Black Panther,” Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor and Peter J. Devlin
“Bohemian Rhapsody,” Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin and John Casali
“First Man,” Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Ai-Ling Lee and Mary H. Ellis
“Roma,” Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan and José Antonio Garcia
“A Star Is Born,” Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder and Steve A. Morrow
Who will win: Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin and John Casali
Who should win: Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Ai-Ling Lee and Mary H. Ellis
Upset: Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Ai-Ling Lee and Mary H. Ellis
Lowdown: This is the category the “Bohemian” team should easily win. Maybe.
Animated Short Film
“Animal Behaviour,” Alison Snowden, David Fine
“Bao,” Domee Shi
“Late Afternoon,” Louise Bagnall
“One Small Step,” Andrew Chesworth, Bobby Pontillas
“Weekends,” Trevor Jimenez
Who will win: “Bao”
Who should win: “Bao”
Upset: “Weekends” or “Late Afternoon”
Lowdown: Pixar’s wonderous “Bao” should easily win this, but “Weekends” or “Late Afternoon” have an outside shot at playing spoiler.
Live Action Short Film
“Detainment,” Vincent Lambe
“Fauve,” Jeremy Comte
“Marguerite,” Marianne Farley
“Mother,” Rodrigo Sorogoyen
“Skin,” Guy Nattiv
Who will win: “Marguerite”
Who should win: “Fauve”
Upset: “Fauve” or “Skin”
Lowdown: “Marguerite” is the most upbeat of all five nominees (in context at least) and, clearly, the most heartwarming. “Fauvre” is the most cinematic and “Skin” has the best twist. If it’s not “Marguerite” it will definitely be one of the other two shorts that take it.
Music (Original Score)
“Black Panther,” Ludwig Göransson
“BlacKkKlansman,” Terence Blanchard
“If Beale Street Could Talk,” Nicholas Britell
“Isle of Dogs,” Alexandre Desplat
“Mary Poppins Returns,” Marc Shaiman
Who will win: Ludwig Göransson
Who should win: Nicholas Britell
Upset: Nicholas Britell
Lowdown: Göransson won the Grammy Award version of this honor earlier this month against different competition, but it was fierce competition. It pains me not to predict Britell here, who totally deserves it and is an incredible talent, but more Academy members have seen “Black Panther” and this is an easy category for them to reward it.
Editing
“BlacKkKlansman,” Barry Alexander Brown
“Bohemian Rhapsody,” John Ottman
“The Favourite,” Yorgos Mavropsaridis
“Green Book,” Patrick J. Don Vito
“Vice” Hank Corwin
Who will win: Hank Corwin
Who should win: Yorgos Mavropsaridis
Upset: John Ottman
Lowdown: My gut tells me Ottman could steal this after winning the ACE Eddie, but the safer bet is Corwin for “Vice.” He’s a previous winner and most members recognize the editing craft in that film more than “Bohemian.”
Actor In A Supporting Role
Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”
Sam Elliott, “A Star is Born”
Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Sam Rockwell, “Vice”
Who will win: Mahershala Ali
Who should win: Richard E. Grant
Upset: Richard E. Grant
Lowdown: It would be wonderful to see Grant take the trophy, but Ali won every major precursor including BAFTA which didn’t even nominate him for “Moonlight.” This is an easy win for “Green Book.”
Actor In A Leading Role
Christian Bale, “Vice”
Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”
Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”
Who will win: Rami Malek
Who should win: Willem Dafoe or Bradley Cooper
Upset: Christian Bale or Bradley Cooper
Lowdown: I’ve called this since November when I saw an audience of SAG and AMPAS members go, for lack of a better word, gaga for him at a post-screening Q&A I moderated. Actors are normally an enthusiastic bunch, but this was a lot. You are justified having problems with “Rhapsody” (trust, I have tons), but Malek winning here shouldn’t be one of them. It’s a truly great performance, plus most of the industry knows he was the one keeping the other actors focused on set when Bryan Singer disappeared for days on end. There’s a little bit of a reward here for that, too.
Actress In A Leading Role
Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”
Glenn Close, “The Wife”
Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
Lady Gaga, “A Star is Born”
Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Who will win: Olivia Colman
Who should win: Olivia Colman
Upset: Glenn Close
Lowdown: I’m gonna die on this hill but I truly think Colman is going to win. Too many members react to Close’s performance with a “What, for that film?” response. This isn’t an anti-Close stance, by the way. She absolutely deserves a lifetime Oscar and her previously nominated work in “Albert Nobbs” was worthy of a win. “The Wife,” yeesh. Colman, on the other hand, delivered one of the most impressive performances by an actor this decade. Expect the Academy to recognize that. And if I’m wrong? Don’t worry about me, I can more than deal with the hardcore Close fans who never saw “The Wife” on Twitter.
Animated Feature Film
“Incredibles 2”
“Isle of Dogs”
“Mirai”
“Ralph Breaks The Internet”
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”
Who will win: “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”
Who should win: “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”
Upset: “Incredibles 2”
Lowdown: Be afraid. Be very afraid. The Academy should do the right thing and reward “Spider-Verse,” which has won every possible honor it can. But, we’ve seen this before. “Frankenweenie” went through the same critical lovefest in 2010 and 2011 only to lose to Pixar‘s “Brave.” The Pixar and Disney Animation brand is crazy strong with the Academy and it’s possible more members have actually seen “Incredibles 2” than “Spider-Verse.” That being said, 2019 is a different time and a different AMPAS membership. The Sony Animation title should pull through.
Cinematography
“Cold War,” Lukasz Zal
“The Favourite,” Robbie Ryan
“Never Look Away,” Caleb Deschanel
“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón
“A Star Is Born,” Matthew Libatique
Who will win: Alfonso Cuarón
Who should win: Lukasz Zal
Upset: Lukasz Zal
Lowdown: Unlike the ASC who snubbed Cuarón with their year-end honor because he’s not an actual cinematographer, AMPAS shouldn’t see it that way. They tend to vote what they think is the most beautiful and it will be hard for them to resist rewarding “Roma.” Then again, if there is an upset it will likely be Zal’s work for “Cold War” or maybe even Libatique for “A Star is Born.”
Best Director
Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”
Paweł Pawlikowski, “Cold War”
Yorgos Lanthimos, ‘”The Favourite”
Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”
Adam McKay, “Vice”
Who will win: Alfonso Cuaron
Who should win: Spike Lee
Upset: Spike Lee
Lowdown: Cuarón should easily duplicate his DGA Award win here. Even members who aren’t voting “Roma” for Best Picture are rewarding Cuarón here. If an upset is in the cards the honor is going to Lee, but he’ll likely get his first non-lifetime Oscar in Adapted Screenplay.
Documentary Feature
“Free Solo,” Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi
“Hale County This Morning, This Evening,” RaMell Ross
“Minding the Gap,” Bing Liu
“Of Fathers and Sons,” Talal Derki
“RBG,” Betsy West, Julie Cohen
Who will win: “Free Solo”
Who should win: “Minding the Gap”
Upset: “RBG”
Lowdown: The membership love “Free Solo” not just because of the story, but also because the documentary itself is so cinematic. I attended one guild and AMPAS screening in January at an IMAX theater at AMC Century City, a very consumer venue, and Brie Larson and Antonio Banderas were two of the members who showed up. If you live in LA you realize that’s not a theater most recognizable stars would go to. That’s how much buzz the film has with AMPAS members.
Documentary Short Subject
“Black Sheep,” Ed Perkins
“End Game,” Rob Epstein, Jeffrey Friedman
“Lifeboat,” Skye Fitzgerald
“A Night at the Garden,” Marshall Curry
“Period. End of Sentence.,” Rayka Zehtabchi
Who will win: “End Game”
Who should win: “End Game”
Upset: “A Night at the Garden”
Lowdown: “A Night at the Garden” has done a wonderful job of creating some last-minute publicity, but “End Game” is the powerhouse that should stick with members the most.
Foreign Language Film
“Capernaum” (Lebanon)
“Cold War” (Poland)
“Never Look Away” (Germany)
“Roma” (Mexico)
“Shoplifters” (Japan)
Who will win: “Roma”
Who should win: “Cold War”
Upset: “Cold War”
Lowdown: There are some members who intended on splitting their vote here if they pick “Roma” for Picture, but the question is whether there are enough of them to honor another film. If so, the “surprise” will be “Cold War.” There likely aren’t enough splitting for that to come to pass, however.
Makeup and Hairstyling
“Mary Queen Of Scots”
“Border”
“Vice”
Who will win: “Vice”
Who should win: “Vice”
Upset: “Border”…but it’s not happening
Lowdown: This is an absolute lock for “Vice.” Book it.
Visual Effects
“Avengers: Infinity War”
“Christopher Robin”
“First Man”
“Ready Player One”
“Solo: A Star Wars Story”
Who will win: “First Man”
Who should win: “Avengers: Infinity War” or “First Man”
Upset: “Avengers: Infinity War”
Lowdown: The last time any movie that comes close to “Infinity War” won this category was “Avatar,” and that was a Best Picture nominee. The last superhero movie to win was “Spider-Man 2” in 2005. The winners since “Avatar” have, arguably, all been prestige-ish films. Maybe the chance to recognize Marvel’s blockbuster changes the equation, but we expect “First Man” to take the prize this time around.
Adapted Screenplay
“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
“BlacKkKlansman,” Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
“Can You Ever Forgive Me?,” Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
“If Beale Street Could Talk,” Barry Jenkins
“A Star Is Born,” Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters
Who will win: Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
Who should win: Barry Jenkins
Upset: Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
Lowdown: Holofcener and Whitty’s win at the WGAs was a surprise, but AMPAS is a different beast. This is their chance to give Lee a non-lifetime Oscar and it’s hard to see them ignoring it. (It’s also one of the few categories they can reward “BlacKkKlansman” too).
Original Screenplay
“The Favourite,” Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
“First Reformed,” Paul Schrader
“Green Book,” Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly
“Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón
“Vice,” Adam McKay
Who will win: Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
Who should win: Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
Upset: Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly
Lowdown: If “Green Book” wins here, watch out. It could be a sign a Best Picture Oscar is in the cards. We’re sticking with the witty and progressive “Favourite” screenplay to win out, however.
Music (Original Song)
“All The Stars” from “Black Panther”
“I’ll Fight” from “RBG”
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” from “Mary Poppins Returns”
“Shallow” from “A Star Is Born”
“When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” from “The Ballad of Busters Scruggs”
Who will win: “Shallow”
Who should win: “All the Stars” or “Shallow”
Upset: Are you kidding?
Lowdown: This is “Shallow” all the way. Any other song being announced would be one of the greatest Academy Award upsets of all time. It would be like if Adele lost and that was never going to happen either.
Production Design
“Black Panther,” Hannah Beachler
“First Man,” Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
“The Favourite,” Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
“Mary Poppins Returns,” John Myhre, Gordon Sim
“Roma,” Eugenio Caballero, Bárbara Enrı́quez
Who will win: Hannah Beachler
Who should win: Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
Upset: Fiona Crombie, Alice Fenton
Lowdown: This is a tough call. Either “Black Panther” or “The Favourite” will win here, but we’re picking the former. It’s an honest pick ’em between both films though.
Best Picture
“Black Panther”
“BlacKkKlansman”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“The Favourite”
“Green Book”
“Roma”
“A Star is Born”
“Vice”
Who will win: “Roma”
Who should win: “The Favourite” or “Black Panther”
Upset: “Green Book” or “Black Panther”
Lowdown: The world is either going to be celebrating history (“Roma,” “Black Panther”), be shocked (“The Favourite”), or half of them will be pissed (“Green Book,” “Bohemian Rhapsody”). No matter what happens the social media reaction will likely give The Academy and ABC something to crow about.
The 91st Academy Awards telecast will air on ABC on Feb. 24 at 5 PM PT, 8 PM ET.
