This is a somewhat strange time. Well, perhaps that’s an understatement. Half the country is trying to stay at home and deal with the coronavirus pandemic. Both film and television production has effectively shut down in the U.S., Canada and Europe. And yet, marketing, promotion and development, however, continue. On the television and streaming side writer’s rooms are open and breaking down new series often via video conference. It’s not the status quo, but it’s trying to be. And that brings us to, in theory, the next big awards season, the Emmys.
Hollywood’s sister awards season, the Tonys, are pausing due to logistical issues with Broadway shuttered for at least four weeks. The Emmys, on the other hand, might be the only awards game that can live on without an in-person component. And, for now, that seems to be the case with the Television Academy pushing contenders to set up virtual or recorded Q&As. Will Netflix and Amazon be throwing massive in-person events like years past? That seems quite unlikely, but Emmy season is moving forward. So, in order to provide a potential distraction from the 24-7 news cycle and celebrities who simply cannot stop going live on Instagram, we’re going to consider some major questions facing the current Emmy season before revealing our initial category predictions.
Are all of this year’s contenders going to qualify?
Many networks and services play it close to the Emmy qualifying deadline of May 31. And because production has effectively shut down series set to premiere over the next few months that were still shooting may not make the race in time. FX’s “Fargo” is already being pushed to later this year. FX’s “Atlanta” is questionable (enough so that we have not included it in our comedy series predictions for now). And it’s unclear if other specific series will be ready as well. Moreover, could there be a new player in the mix in the documentary series category? Due to a massive opening in their broadcast schedule and fan demand, ESPN has moved up its 10-part Michael Jordan documentary “The Last Dance” from June 2 to “Coming Soon.” Which likely means Emmy qualification. Will other networks also play with their release schedule due to production halting? April will tell the tale.
This year’s Drama Series race is…Drama
Unless you’re HBO’s “Succession” or, likely, Netflix’s “The Crown,” the battle for a Drama Series nomination is going to be stressful, to say the least. There are at least 13 series that have either been previously nominated or won this category battling for just seven slots including “Pose,” “Ozark,” “Killing Eve,” “Westworld,” “Better Call Saul,” “The Handmaid’s Tale,” “Big Little Lies,” “Homeland,” “This Is Us” and “Stranger Things.” That also doesn’t include potential new players such as “The Outsider,” “The Morning Show” or “The Mandalorian.” Needless to say, a lot of great shows will be on the outside looking in come Emmy nomination day.
But is it fashion?
The two-time winner of the Competition Series Emmy, “RuPaul’s Drag Race,” has a great cast, but is dealing with the fact one queen has been disqualified post-filming (they might deserve an Emmy for editing her out of it to be honest). Meanwhile, long-time nominee “Project Runway,” which was snubbed last year after jumping (back) to Bravo, has found its footing in its second season with hosts Karlie Kloss and Christian Siriano. There is also Netflix’s well-received (although we’ve certainly got issues with it) “Next in Fashion” with hosts Tan France and Alexa Chung which aired earlier this year. A third fashion design contender, “Making the Cut” with former longtime “Runway” hosts Heidi Klum and Tim Gunn debuts next week (embargoed, but, um Naomi Campbell is a judge people). Can any of these shows knock out last year’s first-time nominee “Nailed It!” or veteran programs such as “Runway,” “Amazing Race,” “The Voice,” “Top Chef” or “American Ninja Warrior”? Ponder.
Can “Schitt’s Creek” go all the way?
After shocking many earning four Emmy nods including Comedy Series, Lead Actress in A Comedy Series (Catherine O’Hara) and Lead Actor in A Comedy Series (Eugene Levy) last year, Dan Levy‘s underdog wonder is riding a wave of industry popularity in its final season. With “Veep,” “Fleabag,” “Russian Doll” and (likely) “Atlanta” out of the mix, the CBC/PopTV series is in a battle for the crown with the 2018 Comedy Series winner, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel.” That Amazon Series took the SAG Ensemble honor in January and actors make up the largest segment of the Television Academy. It was a big win considering how “Fleabag” dominated the television awards from the Emmys through the year-end season. Can “Schitt’s” find enough momentum to knock it off? Luckily, time is on its side as it still has episodes airing up until the series finale on April 7. And if it doesn’t? O’Hara and Levy could take a trophy in its place.
Can Apple TV Plus and Disney Plus crash the party?
As noted, the Dramatic Series category will be a blood bath likely filled with previous nominees. That is rough for Apple and Disney whose streaming services have potential contenders with “The Morning Show” and “The Mandalorian.” No one should discount those shows or the two new services from earning nods in other categories, however. The entire cast of “The Morning Show” including Jennifer Aniston, Billy Crudup, Steve Carell and Reese Witherspoon could earn nods and “Dickinson’s” Hailee Steinfeld has a shot too. Disney could see nods for original movies such as “Togo,” “Timmy Failure: Mistakes Were Made” and “Stargirl.” The service’s “Encore!” reality series should also be a player in the Structured Reality Program category that Netflix’s “Queer Eye” has dominated for the past two years. Jeff Goldblum could snag a Host nomination for “The World According to Jeff Goldblum” and “The Mandalorian” should be a major player in the Creative Arts Emmy categories for production design, visual effects and cinematography. And who knows, maybe Werner Herzog can land a Guest Actor in a Drama Series nod. Needless to say, both services should make a dent, be it a small one, in the Emmyverse in less than a year of existence.
Will Coronavirus viewing habits expand the Television Academy’s awards perspective?
Yes, The Television Academy watches a lot of TV. It’s inherent in what they do for a living, but many members usually can’t find the time to watch everything they should. The fact so many actors and directors have free time on their hands now means they can catch up on more than usual. Will that help networks? Will that help streamers? Will it help “smaller” shows that might not get noticed in the content deluge? Our guess is that it gives a boost to reality and docuseries the most. Genres that feature categories not all members can vote for, unfortunately. But, overall, it might end up being a welcome twist to Emmy nomination results. Maybe.
Emmy Season Prediction Pages*
*Assuming more programs don’t change their premiere dates
Drama Series
Comedy Series
Limited Series
TV movie
Competition Series
