The summer movie season is always going to have some incredible, often record-breaking box office stats. Just this year, we’re seeing that with some great results for films like “John Wick 3,” “Aladdin,” and, of course, “Avengers: Endgame.” Also, every year, the summer brings with it some box office bombs. But it’s rare that a weekend is as dreadful as what we saw this frame, with films like “The Secret Life of Pets 2” and “Dark Phoenix” not only underperforming, but doing it in historically bad fashion, particularly in the case of the latter, the final Fox film in the 20-year “X-Men” franchise.
But before we get to the terrible opening for “Dark Phoenix,” we have to first cover ‘Secret Life 2.’ Sure, the film opened at #1, and the marketing ads in the next week will tout the film as “The #1 film in the country!” but the folks at Universal have absolutely nothing to celebrate, as the film opened with only an estimated $47 million. Now, I say “only” because when you compare the opening to the first film, 2016’s “The Secret Life of Pets” with its $104 million debut, it’s clear that the sequel’s first three-day total is embarrassing.
Often, sequels open to lesser totals than their predecessors, but to open at less than half of the previous film, with only the second film in the series is downright awful. This is the case where the film just didn’t work, on any level, in the marketing leading up to the release. Yes, there were plenty of ads for the film, but if you watched the trailers and TV spots, there’s very little that differentiates what Universal did with this sequel than what was shown in the first film. And in a marketplace as crowded as this, you really have to prove to people that they must spend their money to go see a film in theaters. Let’s be real, Kevin Hart as a superhero bunny isn’t gonna cut it. This is just the classic case of a studio making a sequel to a film that just doesn’t need one.
That being said, Universal and ‘Secret Life 2’ was saved from being the laughing stock of the film industry this weekend thanks to Fox and “Dark Phoenix.” The ‘X-Men’ franchise is viewed as the beginning of the modern superhero era, launching in 2000 with the first big-budget, big box office hit for the genre that seemed dead after the mid-’90s ‘Batman’ films. But now almost 20 years later, the ‘X-Men’ ended its run with not only a sub-par box office debut, but the worst in the franchise’s history, earning an estimated $33 million.
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Just weeks ago, early predictions had “Dark Phoenix” at around $55 million to $60 million, which would have been “okay,” but not great. That would have put it along the lines of the recent ‘X-Men’ films (not including “Logan” or the two “Deadpool” films, which exist in another realm). Sadly for Fox and Marvel, “Dark Phoenix” didn’t just underperform, it crashed and burned in the most spectacularly bad way possible. Not only is “Dark Phoenix” the lowest debut for the entire franchise (not even close, by the way, with “The Wolverine” previously holding the distinction with only a $53 million opening), but the ‘X-Men’ swansong now ranks among the very worst debuts in the history of the modern superhero genre.
Specifically, when you look at the 56 Marvel films that have been released over the years, “Dark Phoenix” ranks as the #47 opening weekend, below films like “Ghost Rider,” “Daredevil,” both early 2000s “Fantastic Four” films, and “The Incredible Hulk” (the lowest MCU debut). Depending on the final number on Monday, “Dark Phoenix” may fall to #48 and lose a position to “Blade II” ($32.5 million). Sure, it beats the 2015 “Fantastic Four” reboot from Josh Trank, which earned a terrible $25.7 million, but that franchise didn’t have 20 years of films to build upon.
So, where did “Dark Phoenix” go wrong? Well, the quick answer is when you have a debut this bad, it’s not just one problem. Instead, it’s a perfect storm of awfulness. First, outside of “Logan” and both “Deadpool” films, the franchise, as a whole, has been in decline since the soft reboot “X-Men: The First Class.” There was a brief reprieve with ‘Days of Future Past” (which benefitted from the original early-2000s cast coming back), but “X-Men: Apocalypse” showed that the franchise was on its last legs, as that film earned terrible reviews and one of the worst domestic totals for the franchise.
A franchise on its last legs is bad enough. But then you have the fact that “Dark Phoenix” suffered the worst reviews of the entire franchise (currently sitting at a dismal 22% on Rotten Tomatoes), combined with the worst CinemaScore in franchise history ‘B-’. (Yes, those reviews and CinemaScore grade is lower than “X-Men Origins: Wolverine,” “Apocalypse,” and ‘Last Stand.’) Word-of-mouth for “Dark Phoenix” went from “meh” before the reviews to “must-avoid” after fans and casual moviegoers saw that this film isn’t the ‘Endgame’ of the ‘X-Men’ series.
But again, as if franchise fatigue, bad reviews, and terrible fan reaction wasn’t enough, there’s more going against “Dark Phoenix.” There’s also the fact that the film debuted in a really difficult week, where there was no shortage of alternatives for fans to check out (‘Godzilla 2,’ ‘John Wick 3,’ ‘Aladdin,’ ‘Detective Pikachu,’ or hell, even “Avengers: Endgame” for a fifth time). Let’s not forget the, ahem, “questionable” marketing strategy, with “Dark Phoenix” effectively spoiling its biggest surprise in the first trailer, with the rest of the trailers not doing much to ramp up the excitement. Oh yeah, and then there’s the highly-publicized reshoots and delays, which are a red flag for many diehard fans. And last, but certainly not least, there’s the “lame duck” aspect, where it everyone knew going into the film that Marvel Studios would effectively reboot the entire franchise in due time, making any of the drama in “Dark Phoenix” moot, as it just will be rewritten eventually, anyhow.
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All that being said, bad marketing, not-so-great film, and franchise fatigue create an embarrassing weekend. And the long-term effects of this debut are going to ripple in the weeks to come. Fans will hear that “Dark Phoenix” was the lowest debut for the franchise and just skip it and wait for the home release. Not only will the film struggle to reach $100 million domestically (it almost certainly won’t reach the milestone), but we could be looking at catastrophic drops in the next two weeks, leading to a total that could only reach $75 million. The number to keep in mind is $85 million, which is the debut weekend total for “X-Men Origins: Wolverine.” We are looking at a strong possibility that the entire domestic cume of “Dark Phoenix” fails to make as much as ‘Origins’ made in its first three days.
Moving on (even though I could talk about “Dark Phoenix” for another 2,000 words, easily), there are a few quick tidbits to mention about this weekend’s depressing box office results. Last weekend’s champ, “Godzilla: King of the Monsters” is truly underperforming, as it’s proving to be incredibly front-loaded, as the sequel dropped a startling -70% in its second weekend, earning only $15.5 million. The domestic total currently sits at $78.6 million, making it highly unlikely that the film will come anywhere near the domestic total of “Kong: Skull Island” ($168 million) or “Godzilla (2014)” ($200.6 million). The future of the franchise, specifically with “Godzilla vs. Kong,” isn’t looking too bright.
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As for your “Avengers: Endgame” update, the film is currently at $824 million domestically, after adding another $4.8 million this weekend. The current worldwide total is $2.731 billion, putting it only roughly $57 million behind “Avatar,” with the window closing more and more each week for ‘Endgame.’ Sorry fans, it appears that “Avatar” is going to be your worldwide champ after everything is all said and done, barring some sort of ‘Endgame’ re-release or big marketing push.
And finally, for the limited release films, this weekend saw two major debuts, with Mindy Kaling’s “Late Night” opening in 4 theaters, earning a very good $62,414 Per-Theater-Average (PTA). See, Annapurna, this might have been you we were raving about with “Booksmart,” if you chose to release it in limited release before thousands of theaters. Now, word-of-mouth will continue to build as “Late Night” expands nationwide next weekend.
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A24 scored another winning debut with “The Last Black Man in San Francisco.” In only 7 locations, ‘Last Black Man’ earned a good $32,963 PTA. This means that the film and the distributor should be excited seeing what happens as the film opens wider and wider in the weeks to come. And if you were planning on seeing “Dark Phoenix,” but are scared to even try now, why not give ‘Last Black Man’ a shot? This is a film that is worthy of your hard-earned money.
Next weekend, the box office adds to more major additions with “Men in Black International” and “Shaft” hitting theaters. In addition, “Late Night” is adding just over 1,500 locations and Jim Jarmusch’s “The Dead Don’t Die” will be in about 550 theaters. Folks, we are in the thick of the summer season.
Here’s the entire top 10 for June 7 to June 9:
1. The Secret Life of Pets 2 – $47M (Debut)
2. Dark Phoenix – $33M (Debut)
3. Aladdin – $24.5M ($232 Overall)
4. Godzilla: King of the Monsters – $15.5M ($78.6M)
5. Rocketman – $14M ($50.5M)
6. Ma – $7.82M ($32.8M)
7. John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum – $7.4M ($139M)
8. Avengers: Endgame – $4.8M ($824M)
9. Detective Pikachu – $2.98M ($137M)
10. Booksmart – $1.58M ($17.8M)
