Hey everybody, I know it’s just the first week in December and we’ve still got over a month before Academy Award nomination ballots are due, but I’ve got news for you. The race for Best Picture is over. The nail is in the coffin. You can start engraving the statue. Lionsgate can even start mocking up the digital and home entertainment release advertising with “Best Picture Winner” emblazoned across the top of the artwork. “La La Land” is your next Oscar superstar.
Now, in theory some scandal could surround Damien Chazelle’s love letter to Los Angeles or Donald Trump could immediately turn the nation into a police state after his inauguration and cancel the ceremony, but neither scenario is likely to happen (well, at least the former isn’t). The fact is “La La Land” winning the New York Film Critics Circle gave it the final seal of approval it needed. Chazelle’s original musical was the belle of the ball at Telluride (the rich industry likes it!) has won the People’s Choice Award at TIFF (regular people like it!), has stellar reviews even before its NY and LA opening on Friday (88 grade on Meteoritic, 95% on Rotten Tomatoes) and it’s reaching levels of “Star Wars” need-to-see hype among the industry in New York and Los Angeles.
Chazelle’s original musical is also expected to earn more Academy Award nominations than any other film this year (granted, indicative only to a point). In fact, it’s plausible it will land 13 nominations and if it manages an Original Screenplay nod (generally recognized as the weakest part of the picture) it’s absolutely over. How did this happen, you ask?
There are two other reasons “La La Land” went from a soft frontrunner to an effective lock over the past week. The first is that Martin Scorsese’s “Silence” screened for press and guild members and while a well-made endeavor (reviews are embargoed at this time) it’s not a real contender to take the top prize and is likely a borderline nominee. Moreover, if “Manchester by the Sea” had a real shot it was going to need to sweep all three early critics groups (NBR, NYFCC and LAFCA). Instead, Kenneth Lonergan’s drama took just NBR and effectively found itself behind “Moonlight” after LAFCA’s awards announcements on Sunday. Obviously, “Manchester” could get a public relations coup winning the Golden Globe for Drama, but head to head with “La La Land” (which will win the Globe for Comedy or Musical) is pretty much a lost cause. It will have to resign itself to potential Original Screenplay and Best Actor wins (maybe).
Of course, there is still a ton of drama left over who else gets a Best Picture nod this year. There are probably only three locks: “La La Land,” “Manchester” and “Moonlight.” And that means between five and six seats at the table are up for grabs. It’s been quite a while since the rest of the field has been that open.
Keeping that in mind, here’s where the Contender Countdown stands before the Globe and SAG Awards nomination announcements next week.
Dec. 7, 2016
1. “La La Land”
Don’t convince yourself Emma Stone is beating Natalie Portman for Best Actress. Not yet anyway.
2. “Manchester by the Sea”
It didn’t win the critics group honor many expected (NBR vs. NYFCC), but the reviews and box office are on point. Question now is whether Casey Affleck can take the Best Actor statue from “Fences'” Denzel Washington (or is it the other way around?).
3. “Moonlight”
LAFCA Best Film win was huge, a SAG ensemble nomination is even more important. Quick note: If HFPA snubs it in different Golden Globes categories just realize…it’s the HFPA, not The Academy.
4. “Hell or High Water”
Like “Moonlight,” fighting (hoping) for a major SAG ensemble nomination in a very competitive year.
5. “Jackie”
Raves from NY and LA Times. Great per-screen for first limited weekend. Really will be status quo until DGA and PGA nods are announced.
6. “Lion”
The new FYC advertising design is light years better than what they started with. Could make a difference.
7. “Sully”
Probably in danger of not making the cut, but also is probably this year’s “Bridge of Spies” and gets in smooth sailing. Also, last time Warner Bros. didn’t have a Best Picture nominee was 2008 and even then it was a production partner on the winner (‘Slumdog’) and the international distributor on another (“Curious Case of Benjamin Button”).
8. “Fences”
Repeating from last countdown: “Do two incredible performances make a Best Picture nominee? This is going to be one to watch.”
9. “Arrival”
It’s really not a contender, but it’s not not one either. Complicated, I know.
10. “Hidden Figures”
Needs a SAG ensemble nomination and probably nods for Taraji, Octavia or Janelle to creep up the list.
Gregory Ellwood’s Current Oscar Predictions:
Best Picture
Director
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay
Editing
Cinematography
Animated Feature Film
Foreign Language Film – Coming Soon
Documentary Feature – Coming Soon
Original Score
Original Song
Costume Design
Makeup and Hairstyling – Coming Soon
Visual Effects – Coming Soon
Sound Mixing – Coming Soon
Sound Editing – Coming Soon
This article reminds me of Roger Ebert’s TIFF review of Argo in Sept 2012 where he correctly predicted it would win Best Picture. The only potential flaw in your theory however, is that critics don’t vote for Oscars. L.A. Confidential won almost every critics group award in 1997 but Titanic took Best Picture. Granted, it’s kind of a different thing but I’m not so sure you should be crowning it already. That said, La La Land is a romantic musical about Hollywood so it does have that going for it.
The Academy is markedly different than it was in 1997. They have much better taste overall and have more highbrow taste. The NYFCC is just an “extra” push that makes the members who have issues with its screenplay say “screw it” and vote for it anyway.
“They have much better taste overall and have more highbrow taste”
Either you’re kidding or you have a strange notion of what highbrow taste means…I’ll give you a hint: It’s not Argo, Spotlight or La La Land…
I came to realize this over the weekend myself. There hasn’t been a “sweep” at the Oscars since Slumdog won eight awards eight years ago, and I’m prepared to see La La Land possibly match that number. As of now it could take home Pic, Director, Actress, Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume, Song, Score and maybe a Sound. So that’s 10 it could win, even though I doubt it will get all those. Still when nominations come out, if we see Gosling nominated for Actor and like you said, a screenplay nomination, I think that will be the tell tale sign that the night will belong to La La Land. And for all those that will lament over Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea and Hell or High Water getting “the shaft,” the number of nominations they get (5 or 6 apiece) and a win for each (Moonlight – Sup Actor, Manchester – Actor, and Hell – Screenplay) will be their consolation.
I am pretty sure Jenkins gets director. It’s the most critically acclaimed film of the year and A24 will pivot their campaign there after the nods. We’ll see though.
I know Jenkins has won a lot of the critics awards so far, but La La Land only exists because of Chazelle. If you’ve researched it, you know he conceived and wrote it before Whiplash and he’s been trying to get it made ever since. I think he’s apart of every category it fits into such as songs, and cinematography, etc. I can’t see them giving it five or more awards and not giving him director. Also, despite some recent Pic/Director splits, it is still not the norm for Oscar. I think director is safer than Actress for instance.
La La Land is a love letter to Hollywood & Los Angeles… exactly like The Artist.
It doesn’t matter what other movies came out this year, certainly not a challenging film about the struggle of faith like Silence, La La Land was always going to win because the film is about making it in LA.
Silence had to be revelatory to win at such a late date.
Not just that but it’s also an “escapism” film unlike its two main competitors (or any of the films that might be nominated against it) Moonlight and Manchester which are downers. After a year of negativity with the presidential campaigns, I think this will come into play. Last year, a film about exposing child abuse won Best Pic. It’s time for feel good.
I’m curious though. Now you don’t have either Hacksaw Ridge or Silence on the top ten. I’m thinking Lion and Jackie might be slipping off cause I definitely think you will have one of them nominated. Also, Loving is still a contender.
AFI released their top ten. Jackie and Lion weren’t on it but Hacksaw and Silence were. Just saying 😉
Oh lord. This again. And so soon.
Hillary would like to remind everyone that there are three groups of people that detest the word “inevitable”: “American Idol” voters, “the poorly educated” voters, and Oscar voters.
And if “La La Land” suddenly finds itself being declared the presumptive winner by 538 and “The Huffington Post”, you know it’s toast.
Don’t jinx it, dummies. Academy members are the same infallible geniuses that voted for “Crash.”