This weekend was predicted to be a close battle at the box office between two Disney films, “Black Panther” and “A Wrinkle in Time.” “Black Panther” was coming into its fourth weekend, still on fire, and “A Wrinkle in Time” is debuting, with a ton of hype and anticipation. However, what was expected to be too close to call at the top, turned out to be yet another easy victory for the Marvel hero.
READ MORE: ‘Red Sparrow’ Can’t Fly High, ‘Black Panther’ Hits Almost $900M in Week 3
“Black Panther” pulled in another $41.7 million over the three days, in its fourth weekend at the box office. That’s right along with Hollywood estimates. That total marks only a 37% drop from the previous weekend and is a clear indicator that, even with big-time competition, “Black Panther” isn’t going anywhere, anytime soon.
But the real story is “A Wrinkle in Time.”
The Ava DuVernay-directed children’s film debuted at number two with $32.7 million. That total came in below many experts’ predictions but Disney shouldn’t be too concerned about that. At least, not yet. Children’s films are famous for their box office longevity, and Disney is banking on that with ‘Wrinkle.’ With an estimated $100+ million budget, the opening isn’t great, but it’s far from the worst, and with positive word-of-mouth (as well as more kids getting out of school for Spring Break), the film could still be in good shape.
However, that positive word-of-mouth isn’t a guarantee with this film. With an overall B CinemaScore, ‘Wrinkle’ just isn’t hitting all the right notes with viewers, especially with adults. People over 25 gave the film a B-, while viewers (kids) under 25 enjoyed it quite a bit more, with a A-. While a B doesn’t seem horrible, keep in mind that grade isn’t the same as a test score. Anything below a B+ is seen as a failure, for most studio films. Disney is going to hope that ‘Wrinkle’ is a film that kids beg their parents to see, and the parents begrudgingly agree.
Overall, there were some more records and milestones hit this weekend, especially for Disney. “Black Panther,” as expected, crossed the $1 billion mark worldwide, in only 26 days. That total was helped by the great opening in China, with the third or fourth best opening for a Marvel film (still waiting on the full report from China). Also, the film is the 11th fastest to reach a billion, right behind “Avengers: Age of Ultron,” and it’s only the 5th Marvel Studios film to get there. It cannot be overstated how well “Black Panther” is doing at the box office.
This weekend also marked a milestone in diversity. With “Black Panther” at number one, followed by “A Wrinkle in Time,” this is the first time in box office history that two black directors own the #1 and #2 spots with $100 million blockbusters. Also, it’s important to note that DuVernay is the first black woman EVER to helm a film with a $100 million budget.
Yes, there were three other films debuting in the top 10. “Strangers: Prey at Night” came in at #3 with a $10.5 million opening. The micro-budgeted horror flick came in right along with expectations, and with a reported $5 budget, the weekend gross isn’t anything to worry about.
Honestly, regarding the other two films, we would probably prefer not to mention them. Amazon Studios had “Gringo” open, and even with a cast featuring Charlize Theron, Joel Edgerton, Amanda Seyfried, Thandie Newton, David Oyelowo, and Sharlto Copley, the film barely registered in the top 10, with a #10 showing of $2.8 million. Not good.
The Rob Cohen-directed “The Hurricane Heist” fared only a little better, with $3 million over the weekend at the #9 position. “The Hurricane Heist” was the long-awaited(?) mash-up of the heist and disaster film. Who are we kidding? You probably didn’t even realize the film existed, let alone opened this weekend, which is evidenced by the low total.
Here’s the rest of the top 10:
1. Black Panther — $41.7M ($562.6M Overall)
2. A Wrinkle in Time — $34M (Debut)
3. Strangers: Prey at Night — $10.5M (Debut)
4. Red Sparrow — $8.4M ($31.4M)
5. Game Night — $7.9M ($45M)
6. Peter Rabbit — $6.5M ($93.1M)
7. Death Wish — $6M ($23.3M)
8. Annihilation — $3.2M ($26.1M)
9. The Hurricane Heist — $3M (Debut)
10. Gringo — $2.8M (Debut)
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So I discussed what is going to be a potentially record breaking 9.5 billion dollar year for Disney in 2019, but let’s back up to this year, specifically A Wrinkle in Time which is what prompted the posts to begin with. We all know every Marvel, Pixar and Star Wars film makes Disney the most money and are usually in the 90% on Rotten Tomatoes, but what about their other projects? Well, it’s proving their live action remakes of their classic animated films are almost all good business. Pete’s Dragon underperformed but still didn’t lose money. So what else is there? Well, Disney being Disney will adapt anything into a movie whether it be based on a previous movie, book, tv show, video game and yes, even their own theme park rides. And as you can imagine, not all of them prove to be successes. In fact, other than the Pirates series, Disney’s “original” programming usually fails, sometimes catastrophically. Let’s look at the 7 certifiable bombs from the Mouse House since 2010…
Prince of Persia (2010) – 200 budget – 336 box office – 36% critics, 58% audience
Sorcerers Apprentice (2010) – 150 budget – 215 box office – 40% critics, 53% audience
John Carter (2012) – 250 budget – 284 box office – 51% critics, 59% audience
The Lone Ranger (2013) – 215 budget – 260 box office – 31% critics, 51% audience
Tomorrowland (2015) – 190 budget – 209 box office – 50% critics, 49% audience
The BFG (2016) – 140 budget – 183 box office – 75% critics, 57% audience
Alice Through the Looking Glass (2016) – 170 budget – 299 box office – 29% critics, 49% audience
Now to be considered a commercial failure, I figure a film needs to make less than twice its reported budget because we all know marketing isn’t included in that. And to be a critical failure, per rotten tomatoes’ parameters, a film needs to score less than a 60%. I think if you meet all three of these criteria, it can be dubbed a “bomb.” The only film included here that didn’t possess all three qualifications is The BFG, which somehow managed to score a 75% with critics yet an inverse 57% with audiences.
So back to A Wrinkle in Time. It’s early, but the data suggests it will join the Disney Bomb club. Critically it’s at a 42% with the critics and a dismal 32% with the audience. Now some might say the audience score is being manipulated by outside sources, as they also claimed this happened with Star Wars: The Last Jedi, but if you look at the score for Wrinkle on IMDB as well, it has a 3.7 which is very low considering Disney’s other bombs hover around a 6.5 rating on that site. Box office wise, Wrinkle earned 10 mil on its opening day which should put it at around a 33 mil opening weekend. This is a similar opening for all the other films listed above. Disney hasn’t released the film’s official budget though, so if it turns out the film cost less than 100 mil and if it can muster over 200 mil in receipts (which most of these bombs managed to do), it might be in the clear financially at least.
Regardless, it’s probably not what Disney was hoping for. Black Panther clearly exceeded all expectations and could very well become the highest grossing Marvel movie to date. And one can assume Avengers: Infinity War could keep pace with that film as well, so it’s not like Disney is sweating a bump in the six lane highway. Point being, they’ve had an average of one a year. Still, they have three movies slated for the fall that could go either way in my book. A live action Winnie the Pooh tale, a dark take on The Nutcracker and a long awaited sequel to the beloved Mary Poppins. The latter which I would put most of my faith in, but like always, you never can tell.