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Breaking Down Oscar’s Tight Three-Way Race For Best Picture

“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
How many Oscar nominations does it have overall?
Seven.
Does it have key Oscar nominations?
Yes and no. It has three Acting nominations (Frances McDormand, Woody Harrelson, Sam Rockwell), Writing (McDonagh) and Editing. It does not have a Directing nomination.  Only four films have won Best Picture without a Directing nomination and the last was “Argo” in 2013 which found Ben Affleck winning the equivalent DGA honor.  McDonagh was nominate for, but did not win DGA.
Does it have major guild support?
Yes, it was nominated for the top PGA, DGA ad SAG honors. It was not eligible for WGA.
Did it win any major guild awards?
Yes, it won the SAG Ensemble honor. McDormand and Rockwell also won SAG awards in their respective categories.
Did it land any other guild nominations to indicate below-the-line support?
It earned American Cinema Editors (ACE), Art Directors Guild (ADG) and Costume Designers Guild (CDG) nominations.
Did it get nominated for BAFTA’s Best Film honor?
Yes, and it won.
Did it win any BAFTA Awards?
Yes, it won Best Film, Best Lead Actress (McDormand), Best Supporting Actor (Rockwell), Best Screenplay (McDonagh) and Best British Film.
Did it win any other major film industry honors?
It won the Golden Globe for Best Picture – Drama if that means anything.* It also took the Toronto Film Festival’s People’s Choice Award (“Chariots of Fire,” “American Beauty,” “Slumdog Millionaire,” “The King’s Speech” and “12 Years A Slave” are only People’s Choice winners to take Best Picture).
Was it released before Dec. 1?
Yes, it opened in limited release on Nov. 10, 2017.
Did it screen at the Telluride Film Festival?
No.

“Get Out”
How many Oscar nominations does it have overall?
Four. The last movie to win Best Picture with under five nominations was “Cavalcade” in 1934. That was 84 years ago for those of you playing at home.
Does it have major guild support?
Yes, it was nominated for the top PGA, DGA, WGA and SAG honors.
Did it win any major guild awards?
It won the WGA Original Screenplay honor over “Lady Bird” and “Shape of Water.”  “Three Billboards” was not eligible.
Did it land any other guild nominations to indicate below-the-line support?
It earned American Cinema Editors (ACE), Art Directors Guild (ADG) and Costume Designers Guild (CDG) nominations.
Does it have key Oscar nominations?
Yes and no.  It has Directing (Peele), Acting (Daniel Kaluuya) and Screenwriting (Peele).  It missed out on Editing.  Only 10 movies have won Best Picture without an editing nomination and only one in the past 36 years and that was “Birdman” which was sold as one-shot film even though technically it wasn’t.  So, there’s that.
Did it get nominated for BAFTA’s Best Film honor?
No.
Did it win any BAFTA Awards?
No.
Did it win any other major film industry honors?
No, but it is your likely Spirit Awards winner for Best Feature.
Was it released before Dec. 1?
Yes, it opened on Feb. 24, 2017.
Did it screen at the Telluride Film Festival?
No.

It’s a lot isn’t it?   In 2007 the mistake many pundits made was not realizing that while Leonardo DiCaprio wasn’t nominated for “The Departed,” his nod for “Blood Diamond” was, in most actors eyes, for both films.  DiCaprio had earned as SAG nod for “Departed” but not an Oscar one which made everyone question the film’s support.  Especially since he was terrible in the Ed Zwick directed melodrama.  It turns out were all just blinded by…diamonds (such a simpler time).  Perhaps once this year’s winner is announced we’ll all look back and see the confirmation clues here, there and everywhere.  Or, perhaps we’ll just realize the new membership is more fractured and difficult to figure out than every before.  Wouldn’t that be something?

Look for final Oscar predictions early Friday morning.

The 90th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 4, 2018 will be broadcast live on the ABC Television Network at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT. Look for full coverage on The Playlist.

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5 COMMENTS

  1. I really hope The Shape of Water doesn’t win Best Picture. It’s pretty but it’s also incredibly shallow and conventional. I’d really like to see Dunkirk or Phantom Thread turning the tables and taking the big prizes.

  2. the three films you discuss are terrific, and we agree that they are probably the leaders. we’d be happy with any of the three. but, objectively, “the shape of water” is the most breathtaking film. all the nominated films are good, and we’d see them each again, but several are plainly at a “lower” level. the only one that made us shake our heads is “the phantom thread”, which benefits from daniel day lewis’ acting but otherwise is seriously flawed.

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