Breaking Down Oscar’s Tight Three-Way Race For Best Picture

It’s hard for anyone to complain that we’re in for another boring Oscar telecast when faced with the fact this year’s Best Picture race is literally going down to the wire.  Voting is over.  The ballots are in, but unlike last year where everyone expected an easy “La La Land” win only to be happily shocked by a “Moonlight” triumph this year’s race is about as hard to determine as the 79th Academy Awards, 11 years ago.  That year “Little Miss Sunshine,” “The Departed” and “The Queen” battled it out in an extremely tight race and prognosticators pulled their hair out trying to figure out if Martin Scorsese‘s Boston thriller could win after it earned less acting nominations than expected (it did).

This year’s final trio appears to be Guillermo del Toro’s “The Shape of Water,” Martin McDonagh’s “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” and Jordan Peele’s “Get Out.”  Sure, you can somehow make the argument that “Dunkirk,” “Lady Bird” and “Phantom Thread” could win as well, but those would be almost shocking upsets based on the season overall.  But, hey, if it happens congratulations to those predicting either of those films beforehand.

Frankly, we’re not ready to pick a winner yet because we’re still flummoxed by not just the statistical results, but the fact Academy member feedback is somewhat all over the place.  On the one hand, I’ve been told one poll of 100 members showed “The Shape of Water” winning easily, but that was conducted before voting started (a competing poll of less members had the race all over the place).  “Shape” also missed out on a SAG ensemble nomination which is a major red flag, but it earned three Oscar acting nominations and has support in every voting branch except Visual Effects (and it still made the shortlist Bake Off there).  You also hear how many older members love “Shape” for its ode to old Hollywood and that’s a huge sign of a passion vote (Academy members tend to vote with what moves them the most).  On the other hand,  del Toro has also had to deal with a number of other creatives saying his film was directly inspired by their own which he has vehemently denied.  This issue tends to pop up every other season to one frontrunner or another so it’s unclear how serious members even take it.

“Three Billboards” faced a social media backlash that invaded some print publications, but SAG, BAFTA and Academy members seem immune to it.  McDonagh’s film dominated the BAFTA Awardss and despite expected competition stars Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell have completely swept the televised awards circuit honors.  Actors like “Three Billboards” so much they gave Woody Harrelson a Supporting Actor nomination and he was barely campaigning for one.  And there is increasing feedback from members that they don’t buy the backlash and over the past month the three billboard motif as been used to protest the gun lobby in Florida,  and even as an attempt to get LeBron James to sign with the 76ers. 

“Get Out,” a February release, has been the center of a strong reminder campaign from Universal Pictures, but earned just four nominations (more on the historical importance of that state below) missing out on a key editing nod.  It arguably has the mantle of being the most progressive film of this year’s nine nominees and, therefore, the “important” vote.  And, yet, you’ll still hear about members who have not watched it or simply think it’s too “commercial” to win.  But, does it benefit from the preferential ballot?  Is it actually the 2nd or 3rd vote for most members or is it lower on the list not giving it a shot to surpass the other contenders.  Does “Shape” or “Three Billboards” place higher outside of first place votes?

And there’s a ton more to wrap your head around.   “Three Billboards” and “Get Out” didn’t screen at Telluride.  You might think that’s silly, but the last winner to not screen there was 2010 winner “The Hurt Locker” which means the Colorado festival has hosted seven straight winners.  Moreover, no movie has won that was released in December since “Million Dollar Baby” in 2005.  That’s a 12-year straight trend and one that overlaps the five-nominee and expanded nominee Best Picture race.

And then there is the Academy itself.  The recent push to diversify the membership, which began in 2016 after #OscarsSoWhite, has pushed what used to be a 5,000-6,000 member voting pool to approximately 7,200 potential voters.  Many of them are women and under 50, but a ton of them are also international and we’re not talking about the United Kingdom, either.  Their cinephile voices from Europe, Asia and the Middle East have been heard over the past two years in “Moonlight’s” nominations and wins as well as multiple nods this year for “Call Me By Your Name” and “Phantom Thread.”  Which film benefits the most from these new members?

Keeping all that in mind, let’s go more in depth on each contender shall we?

“The Shape of Water”
How many Oscar nominations does it have overall?
13 nominations.
Does it have key Oscar nominations?
Yes. It has three Acting nominations (Sally Hawkins, Octavia Spencer, Richard Jenkins), Directing (del Toro), Writing (del Toro and Vanessa Taylor) and Editing.
Does it have major guild support?
Yes, it was nominated for the top PGA, DGA and WGA honors. It did not land a SAG ensemble nomination. In the 24 years SAG has handed out that award only “Braveheart,” in the awards first year, took Best Picture without a SAG nod.
Did it win any major guild awards?
It won the PGA and DGA top honors.
Did it land any other guild nominations to indicate below-the-line support?
American Cinema Editors (ACE), Art Directors Guild (ADG), Costume Designers Guild (CDG), Cinema Audio Society (CAS), Hollywood Makeup and Hairstylist Guild and Motion Picture Sound Editors (MPSE).
Did it get nominated for BAFTA’s Best Film honor?
Yes.
Did it win any BAFTA Awards?
Yes, del Toro won Best Director and the film took home Original Music and Production Design awards.
Did it win any other major film industry honors?
The film took the Golden Lion at the 2017 Venice Film Festival.  No Golden Lion winner has ever won the Oscar for Best Picture.
Was it released before Dec. 1?
No, it actually opened in limited release on Dec. 1.
Did it screen at the Telluride Film Festival?
Yes.