Prediction based on nominations [Feb. 5]
NOMINEES
1. Denzel Washington, “Fences”
2. Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea”
3. Ryan Gosling, “La La Land”
4. Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge”
5. Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic”
PREVIOUS CONTENDERS (for historical context)
Ben Affleck, “Live by Night”
Joel Edgerton, “Loving”
Jake Gyllenhall, “Nocturnal Animals”
Tom Hanks, “Sully”
Chris Pine, “Hell or High Water”
Don Cheadle, “Miles Ahead”
Collin Farrell, “The Lobster”
Andrew Garfield, “Silence”
Michael Keaton, “The Founder”
Nate Parker, “The Birth of a Nation”
Brad Pitt, “Allied”
Will Smith, “Collateral Beauty”
Miles Teller, “Bleed for This”
Gregory Ellwood’s Current Oscar Predictions:
Best Picture
Director
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay
Editing
Cinematography
Production Design
Animated Feature Film
Foreign Language Film
Documentary Feature
Original Score
Original Song
Costume Design
Makeup and Hairstyling
Visual Effects
Sound Mixing
Sound Editing
Mark Wahlberg for a Peter Berg film, sight unseen. No way. Edgerton will have that spot.
Having seen both Loving and Nocturnal Animals I’d say Gyllenhaal over Edgerton. You and I may not have seen Patriots Day, but people I trust have. Don’t be so quick to say “no way.”
Well Gyllenhaal is a much better actor than Wahlberg. In fact, just like with Adam Sandler, Wahlbergs best performance came in a PTA film and he didn’t even get a nom for it. I’m not doubting the film, Deepwater Horizon has good reviews and I think the Wahlberg/Peter Berg partnership is getting stronger with each film, but I still doubt Wahlberg the actor. And that combined with the late release, I think works against him. Like you’ve mentioned already, no film has won BP without being seen before December since Million Dollar Baby. Now there are quite a few films that could tip that stat like Fences, Silence, Gold and maybe Live By Night. But I don’t think Patriots Day will be the film to do it.
Hacksaw Rige, not Heartbreak.
Gyllenhaal, not Gyllenhall.
Timothy Spall for The Journey by Nick Hamm