Never bet against James Cameron, they said. And while “Avatar: The Way Of Water” got off to somewhat of a slow box office start—or at least it fell under some of the early projections which made pundits quickly skeptical of its chances—the Cameron maxim seems to be coming true. After just 14 days in theaters, “Avatar: The Way Of Water” has crossed the $1 billion mark at the global box office. That makes it the fastest film of 2022 to hit that figure and the 6th fastest film ever to reach that mark, tied with “Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom”—which also took 14 days to hit $1 billion in 2018. But the ‘Avatar’ franchise has always been a grower, not a show-er. Even the first “Avatar” film only grossed $77 million in its opening box office weekend, but then played forever and kept making money week after week.
Right now, the film is the 3rd highest-grossing film of the pandemic era, having just surpassed “Doctor Strange And The Multiverse of Madness,” and it will soon take over “Jurassic World: Dominion” for the 2nd position.
But its chances are looking good overall. Adjusted projections based on its legs and hold at the box office are circling around $1.6 billion to $1.9 billion, depending on how it keeps performing worldwide. Cameron’s ‘The Way Of Water’ has also crossed the $300 million mark at the domestic box office, and given it’s just started, it’s eyeing a domestic run that could hit around $500 million or more.
If ‘The Way of Water’ can somehow hit $2 billion, that’ll be the milestone that Cameron, Disney, and everyone wants. But hitting $1.9 billion-ish and surpassing “Spider-Man: No Way Home”—currently the title holder of the highest-grossing film of the pandemic era ($1.91 billion)—would also be a big boon to the franchise.
If some of this sounds underwhelming, well, look at those ‘Spider-Man’ numbers. The reality is the box office has changed post-pandemic and may never reach those same heights again. “Avatar: The Way Of Water” was never going to hit the $2.7 billion gross of the original (which is now $2.9 billion thanks to re-releases).
Speaking of re-releases, here’s some good ‘Way Of Water’ context which also explains why the film is maybe underperforming a little right now, at least compared to the first film. The original “Avatar” grossed $57 million in China in its 2021 re-release and another $75 million in its 2022 global re-release. Given “Avatar” grossed $202 million in China back in 2009, the thinking was the huge re-release figures pointed to a figure that could grow much bigger.
But China is currently experiencing its biggest COVID-19 spike ever. After nearly two years of the strict Covid-Zero policy in China—only 31,000 deaths in a country with a 1.4 billion population vs. 1.1 million deaths in the U.S. with a 331.9 million population— China suddenly let its guard down and dropped most of their harsh restrictions at the beginning of December. The result? Just two weeks later and, they’ve had a massive surge in cases (read the New York Times ‘Tragic Battle’: On the Front Lines of China’s Covid Crisis for more context or this harrowing Twitter thread from epidemiologist & health economist Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding, which nine days after it was published does not at all sound alarmist and sadly on point).
So, while “Avatar: The Way Of Water” has grossed $100 million in China so far, and yes, it is playing on 89 thousand screens currently in the country (!), it only made $3.7 million on Tuesday versus the $32 million it made in North America on Monday (4,202 screens in the U.S. approximately), which is a shocking disparity. Will ‘The Way Of Water’ earn $200 million in China like the first film? It feels doubtful at the moment, given those figures, but it maybe reminds us that under optimal conditions, Cameron’s film could have been an even bigger behemoth in China than the original film, which certainly could have made a big difference (not helping? Vaccination rates in China are insanely low, some 3.4 million versus its 1.4 billion population)
Cameron has said his ‘Avatar’ sequel will need to hit $2 billion worldwide to break even, which feels like a big exaggeration, but even if it doesn’t, one shouldn’t be too worried. “Avatar 3,” scheduled for December 20, 2024, has already been shot and just needs to do its VFX work. Cameron also shot the first act of “Avatar 4,” but if they’re going to go ahead with finishing “Avatar 4” and making “Avatar 5,” they’re going to need to make those decisions soon. “Avatar” 4 is due December 18, 2026, and Cameron recently said on the Smartless podcast that an ‘Avatar’ movie generally needs two years for VFX completion and about a year to shoot. If they want to finish the three quarters left of “Avatar 4,” they’ll likely need to start sometime next year. Will Disney be prepared to make that decision so quickly? Will they shoot 4 and 5 simultaneously as they did 2, 3, and one act of part 4? Stay tuned.
