And then there were eight. The Best Picture nominees have been widdled down to a chosen few and from a layman’s perspective, it might appear that the race to take Oscar’s most prestigious prize is surprisingly wide open. “Mank” led all films, including Best Picture nominees, with ten nods, but there were six films with six nods and one, “Promising Young Woman,” with five. But upon closer inspection, things are slightly more complicated.
In theory, in order to win Best Picture, you need support from every “major” branch. That means at least a nomination in Editing, Directing, Writing and, the largest branch of all, Acting. Crafts categories such as Production Design and Cinematography certainly don’t hurt, but history has sided with the previous four aspects of the filmmaking process.
This year, just two films have nominees in each of those categories: “Promising Young Woman” and “Nomadland.” “Judas and the Black Messiah,” “Minari” and “Mank” are missing the Editing nod. “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” “Sound of Metal” and “The Father” missed out on a Directing nod. That being said, the past decade has upended those assumptions somewhat.
“Parasite” won last year without an acting nomination (though it won the SAG ensemble honor). “Green Book” missed out on a directing nod and still won (Peter Farrelly landed a DGA Award nod, however). “Birdman” won without an Editing nomination (although it was a “one-shot” so…). “Argo” snubbed Ben Affleck in Directing (but he won the DGA Award honor). Still, six of the 10 have followed the trend since 2011.
The bigger indicator has usually been the guild honors. Win the most out of the SAG Awards, PGA Awards, and DGA Awards trifecta and you “should” be on your way. Just remember that the PGA Award hasn’t lined up with Best Picture three times out of the last 10 years, the SAG Ensemble Award just five out 10, and the DGA Award just six out of 10. And, don’t look at BAFTA, they’ve only lined up five out of the last 10 (and just once out of the last five).
These are strange times, however. A ceremony set at Union Station in downtown Los Angeles and the Dolby Theater in Hollywood. Theaters opening up in LA for the first time since the pandemic began over a year ago. A two-month delay to the entire Oscar proceedings. It makes you think either anything can happen or, on the other end of the spectrum, maybe the film we expected from the start will easily take the crown.
Keeping all that in mind and knowing we’ve got another six weeks to go, here’s your Contender Countdown Best Picture ranking for March 17, 2021.
1 “Nomadland”
Might be time to remind voters of the emotion of the film, but at this point, Searchlight is likely just going to keep things steady. Oh, wait. This works.
2 “Promising Young Woman”*
If it dominates the BAFTAs, watch out.
2 “Minari”*
If it takes SAG Ensemble and Youn Yuh-jung wins either SAG or BAFTA? All bets are off.
4 “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Needs the double snag of SAG Ensemble and the PGA Award at this point to confirm it as a legitimate threat. If not, we’re not sure it has a shot.
5 “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Could surprise, but might just be about a Daniel Kaluuya for Supporting Actor and, fingers crossed, H.E.R. win in Original Song.
6 “Sound of Metal”
How would the world feel about Riz Ahmed winning Best Actor over Chadwick Boseman? Just curious. That’s all.
7 “The Father”
Olivia Colman is in the mix in the current “anyone’s game” Best Supporting Actress category. Does she even want to deal with beating Glenn Close a second time?
8 “Mank”
Amanda Seyfried could surprise in Supporting Actress, but looking like its best hope is in craft categories such as Production Design, Sound and Costumes.
*Too close to call
