A strange thing has happened in the race for Best Picture. Bradley Cooper’s “A Star Is Born” has become the clear frontrunner and likely winner, but the other seven to eight films that join that blockbuster with a nomination? That’s become a somewhat stranger call.
Granted, there are three obvious locks for a nomination, Alfonso Cuaron’s “Roma,” Spike Lee’s “BlacKkKlansman,” Yorgos Lanthimos’ “The Favourite.” And, trust, neither Netflix, Focus Features nor Fox Searchlight will give up on a potential Best Picture win once each film lands a slew of nominations on Jan 22. Peter Farrelly’s “Green Book” also seems an obvious nominee, but some of the recent revelations haven’t helped the film’s cause. Still, it seems a safe bet (right?).
The rest?
“Black Panther” has landed everything its needed so far. A SAG Ensemble nomination, AFI’s Top 10 list and a key Golden Globe Best Film- Drama nomination for Disney to promote (trust, the nod isn’t worth anything else). It also landed Oscar shortlist mentions for Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score and Original Music. That seems to indicate below the line support even if all three nods don’t land. Moreover, a PGA nod seems likely and director Ryan Coogler could land at least a DGA nod. The only hiccup seems to be a Supporting Actor nomination for Michael B. Jordan, something many believed was a given just a few months ago. Maybe a WGA nomination will instill even more confidence, but with Marvel Studios never having come anywhere close to this recognition in the past it still feels like anything could happen. Then again, having Oprah singing your praises doesn’t hurt. I mean, “Panther” should get in, but if there is a “shocking” snub on Oscar nomination morning it may be here.
Barry Jenkins’ “If Beale Street Could Talk” is going to make our top 10 films of the year list. It’s a masterwork. The Academy should absolutely recognize it with a Best Picture nomination. That being said, the SAG snubs have to concern Annapurna. Listen, SAG’s always quirky nominating committee clearly preferred the studio, pseudo studio and big names that were in theaters before the second week of November. And if you were a familiar player such as any member of the “Vice” cast you made the cut (except, notably, in Ensemble, but more on that later). But “industry favorite” Regina King with the SAG snub? Listen, we still think she’s winning the Oscar, but from a broader standpoint, it may reflect more on how the industry sees “the movie” than people think. Frankly, we’re not sure we can deal with another “Florida Project”-esque snub two years in a row.
And that leaves us with what just a few weeks ago we assumed were our final two nominees, Adam McKay’s “Vice” and Rob Marshall’s “Mary Poppins Returns.” Two end-of-year titles that received much more polarizing critical reactions than most expected (even with the former being a Dick Cheney biopic). “Vice” currently sports a 62 grade on Metacritic. “Mary Poppins Returns” has a 66 grade on the critical aggregator service. For comparison’s sake, assumed non-Best Picture player “Mary Queen of Scots” has a 61. Oh, and did we mention the drop dead grade on Metacritic for a Best Picture nominee this past decade (for the most part) is “Les Miserables'” 63 with the outlier being “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” at 46.
“Vice” seemed a lock for a nomination, but the vitriol from some of the negative reviews has been eye-brow raising. Moreover, the fact the film didn’t land an Ensemble nod (as noted, also a problem for “Beale”) despite it’s star-filled and SAG friendly cast has to be because it screened so late, right? (Right?) The fact McKay’s latest effort made the Oscar shortlists for Original Score and Makeup and Hairstyling is a good sign, but a PGA and WGA nod is key.
“Mary Poppins Returns” earned slightly better reviews and is likely going to be a monster hit over the holiday frame. The question with this Disney effort is whether Academy members will take it seriously as a Best Picture player or whether it’s simply a below-the-line, Song, Score and Emily Blunt play. Those shortlist mentions certainly make you wonder.
If either “Mary Poppins” or “Vice” falters that, in theory, opens the door for another contender or two. Is “Bohemian Rhapsody,” a movie with god-awful reviews beyond Rami Malek, a crowd favorite members can’t ignore despite the Bryan Singer mess? Is “First Man” ripe for a comeback after being seemingly discredited as a legit Best Picture player? Is “A Quiet Place” the surprise nominee that’s earned SAG and industry love (AFI Top 10 and an Original Score shortlist mention)? Could A24’s beloved “Eighth Grade” simply be adored enough to find enough votes to make the cut?
Needless to say, members scanning their screener pile this holiday season have a lot of decisions ahead of themselves. And outside of the top five (or is that four?) anything seems possible.
Here’s your latest contender countdown.
Dec. 20, 2018
1. “A Star is Born”
There can be a hundred best picture nominees in a room, but it takes only one…
2. “Roma”
Netflix has gone all out and the LAFCA and NYFCC wins are major. Quick, name a foreign language film that’s won Best Picture? Oh, right.
3. “The Favourite”
Those that love, adore. And if it’s the consensus no. 2…anything is possible.
4. “BlacKkKlansman”
If it lands nominations for both John David Washington (Best Actor) and Adam Driver (Supporting Actor) as well as Director, Screenplay and Editing? That’s when “Star” will have some major competition on its hands.
5. “Black Panther”
We still think it’s in, but that doesn’t mean we’re not realistic about the snub prospects.
6. “Green Book”
A holiday resurgence at the box office wouldn’t hurt.
7. “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Annapurna needs a ton of top 10 lists to tout.
8. “Vice”
Even limited release box office returns may matter with this one.
9. “Mary Poppins Returns”
Winning the Globe Best Picture – Musical or Comedy a week before ballots are due wouldn’t hurt.
10. “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Has a movie that fired its director ever been nominated for Best Picture? That we know of, at least?
11. “First Man”
Sure to be a below-the-line player. Is the respect stronger than we suspect? Looking at you for guidance PGA and DGA.
12. “A Quiet Place”
Feels like something organic is happening, pt. 1
13. “Eighth Grade”
Feels like something organic is happening, pt. 2
