9 Things We Learned About This Year’s Oscars From the 2017 BAFTA Awards Nominations

It wouldn’t be the 2017 Oscar season without another surprising turn in the road. The 2017 EE BAFTA Awards nominations were announced early Tuesday morning London time and, as expected, they loved “La La Land” giving it 11 nominations. What wasn’t expected were some of the snubs, some of the nominees and, most of all, the adoration for Tom Ford’s “Nocturnal Animals” which tied “Arrival” for the second most nominations, nine.

You can review all of the nominations here.

What’s important to remember about BAFTA is that while it does have some crossover with the its American counterpart in terms of membership (not as much as you’d think), it tends to “think” and act like the Academy because it’s made up of the same professionals who work on many Hollywood or even independent films in the UK or in the U.S. That being said, its choices are often very British. That’s the only reason why “I, Daniel Blake” earned a Best Film nomination (among others) over more familiar fare. Granted, ‘Blake’ won the Palm d’Or in May, but its U.S. distributor didn’t even attempt a token awards campaign for it because it was less heralded on this side of the pond.

You have to take BAFTA seriously, however, in context of the Academy Awards because they often match up closer to one another than any other awards body. Keeping that in mind, here are some things to take notice of as we count down to the end of Oscar voting this week.

“Arrival” is going to be a an Oscar force
Barring some shocking snub from the PGA Awards tomorrow, Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi blockbuster is absolutely getting nominated for the Academy’s Best Picture honor. Moreover, Amy Adams is a lock for a Best Actress nod and Villeneuve should make the Best Director five. The film will also likely earn Cinematography, Editing, Sound, Visual Effects and Adapted Screenplay honors. The only BAFTA nomination it won’t duplicate with Oscar is Original Score (Music for BAFTA) as it was disqualified last month by the music branch.

Viggo Mortensen is in for Best Actor
The “Captain Fantastic” star was a “surprise” nominee for Best Actor at SAGs, but duplicated the nod here with BAFTA. It’s partially because of a weak year for leading men, but also due to a fantastic under the radar campaign by both ‘Fantastic’’s U.S. and U.K. distributors. Assuming Casey Affleck is nominated for “Manchester by the Sea” (a given) it will also mean two Sundance performances will make the Best Actor field.

We may be underestimating “Nocturnal Animals” and Aaron Taylor-Johnson
Tom Ford’s thriller wasn’t a monster hit in the UK (it made a fine $3.6 million), but it struck a chord with BAFTA voters. Those nine nominations including surprises in the Director (Ford), Lead Actor (Jake Gyllenhaal), Supporting Actor (Taylor-Johnson), Adapted Screenplay (Ford), Cinematography, Editing, Music, Production Design and Makeup and Hair categories show a broad range of support across the organization. Granted, it didn’t earn a Best Film nod, but BAFTA only gives out five of them so it easily could have been (and likely was) no. 6. As for Taylor-Johnson, the Golden Globe winner didn’t earn a SAG nod and still faces a tough fight to knock Lucas Hedges out of the Oscar race for Best Supporting Actor, but no one will be surprised now if his name is called when the nominations are announced.

BAFTA really does not like Denzel Washington
What to hear something that’s hard to believe? Washington, a two-time winner and six-time Academy Award nominee, has never been nominated for a BAFTA award. He was feted by BAFTA’s Los Angeles chapter at the Britannia’s with an Excellence in Film award in 2007. The idea that anyone other than Affleck earned a nod here over Washington has to have Paramount shook. The studio still believes Washington has a shot to earn his third Oscar, but this is a major dent in their strategy. The fact that BAFTA also snubbed “Fences” for any honor other than Best Supporting Actress is also a minor red flag as well as a reminder of how different this voting body can be compared to the Academy.

Oh, sweet Jesus is Emily Blunt going to earn her first Oscar nomination for “The Girl on the Train”?
It may be a mirage. A few years ago both SAG and BAFTA nominated Oprah Winfrey for “The Butler” in the Supporting Actress category but she didn’t cross the Oscar finish line. The same thing happened Jake Gyllenhall for “Nightcrawler” in the Best Actor race and Emma Thompson for “Saving Mr. Banks” for Best Actress. So, while it seems like Emily Blunt may earn her first Oscar nomination after being recognized by both SAG and BAFTA we’d still bet against it. Annette Bening, Ruth Negga or, thanks to some miracle, Isabelle Huppert will make the final five. Maybe.

Baring a PGA or DGA surprise “Jackie” is out of the Best Picture race
The fact BAFTA’s directing branch nominated Tom Ford over Pablo Larrain (let alone Barry Jenkins, but more on that later) and the fact it didn’t earn an Original Screenplay nomination (granted, something that will be easier with Oscar) is pretty much the final nail in the coffin for “Jackie’s” Best Picture chances. Right now Searchlight has to fight for Natalie Portman to win SAG and then for her to win BAFTA over a body that clearly adores “La La Land” and might want to anoint Emma Stone. Everything else may be secondary.

The “Moonlight” snubs are embarrassing
Jenkins’ snub in directing is embarrassing for the Brits, but the most critically acclaimed film of 2016 was overlooked in other key categories including Editing, Cinematography and Music (where “Arrival” can’t repeat with Oscar). It did earn a Best Film nod in a five-picture field that is some solace for the Globe winner for Best Motion Picture – Drama.

“Hidden Figures” is being taken seriously
It’s a tiny sliver of a trend and it’s worth pointing out. “Hidden Figures” screenplay nomination was it’s only recognition from BAFTA as the organization snubbed Octavia Spencer in the Best Supporting Actress category and has a limited five Best Film field. The 20th Century Fox hit did earn an Adapted Screenplay nod, however. A feat it duplicated after earning the same honor from the WGA last week. This is noteworthy because with BAFTA it was competing against “Moonlight” and “Loving” (two films competing in the Original Screenplay category for Oscar) and still made the cut. That’s noteworthy and a sign of respect from two major awards bodies. It may actually earn a Best Picture nomination after all.

In case you weren’t aware, “Hell or High Water” is a Best Picture nominee
There are pretty much now five locks for Oscar’s top honor: “La La Land,” “Arrival,” “Moonlight,” “Manchester by the Sea” and “Hell or High Water.” David Mackenzie’s thriller didn’t make BAFTA’s top five, but it earned every competitive nomination from three different branches: Supporting Actor (Jeff Bridges), Original Screenplay (Taylor Sheridan) and Cinematography. Unless it finds itself on the outside of PGA (it shouldn’t) CBS Films will finally have a Best Picture nominee.

Quick note: If you’re wondering why Isabelle Huppert was not nominated for Best Actress for “Elle” its because the film does not have a U.K. distributor as of yet so she did not qualify. If you’re also wondering about why “O.J. Simpson: Made in America” was not in the Documentary category it also was not eligible.

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