Now that the triumvirate of early fall film festivals has come to an end, we can finally sit back and look at the race for Best Picture at the 2017 Academy Awards with a clear perspective. It may be somewhat surprising, but the biggest story isn’t Damien Chazelle’s “La La Land.” Granted, the movie musical is the undisputed and current frontrunner to win it all in February, but we have tons of time to talk about the feel-good movie musical ad nauseam. In fact, I can predict that by mid-November, serious Oscar watchers are going to be bored out of their minds reading about “La La Land” and most of them won’t have even seen it yet. So let’s just focus on the true surprise contender, Clint Eastwood’s “Sully.”
It sounds silly that anyone would dismiss an Eastwood film off hand, but many in the media did. It didn’t matter that the legendary filmmaker and actor was coming off the global box-office blockbuster “American Sniper” which earned six Academy Award nominations including Best Picture. It didn’t matter that it starred two-time Best Actor champ Tom Hanks, who has appeared in eight Best Picture nominees (including “Toy Story 3”). The media — this pundit included — was focused on the eyebrow-raising early September release (dictated by a need for IMAX screens) and the fact that the film was not screening at either the Venice or Toronto Film Festivals. A Telluride berth just seemed like an excuse for the festival to get Eastwood and Hanks to finally come to Colorado (Hanks at least seemed to have a fantastic time). Obviously, we were wrong.
“Sully” has a 75 grade on Metacritic and is 82% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, more than acceptable scores for a potential Best Picture nominee. It’s also a major box-office success, earning $72 million in just its first 11 days and well on its way to over $100 million domestic. It’s an unexpected word-of-mouth wonder that may end up becoming the highest-grossing September release ever. That’s just gravy though for its awards prospects, however.
At Telluride, “Sully” debuted in the largest theater on site (the Werner Herzog) and had formidable competition for its first screening including “La La Land” and “Moonlight” (Telluride frustrated many by screening some of the most anticipated movies all within a few hours of each other on opening night). Hanks even made fun of the few empty seats before the screening began (again, it’s a huge theater). As the weekend went on, however, every “Sully” screening was packed and many ticket buyers were actually turned away. Sure, some of that was for the celebrity factor of Eastwood and Hanks (only a few can impress the Telluride faithful, and those two qualify), but mostly it was because word spread among the festival-goers about the quality of the flick. That’s important and one reason why consultants and studios find the Telluride experience so valuable for a real contender (the aforementioned “La La Land” and “Moonlight” also benefited from this).
There is a long way to go, but don’t be surprised if “Sully” slips into the quality commercial slot “The Martian” earned last year and ‘Sniper’ took two years ago. It may not be Oct. 1 yet, but something tells us Eastwood’s latest is in it for the long haul.
Before we segue into the first edition of the Contender Countdown, a quick note. Look for predictions for all the major categories over the next week. You’ll always be able to find them at the bottom of each Countdown column even if the first edition gets it posted within the next 48 hours. That being said…
Contender Countdown
Sept. 21, 2016
1. “La La Land”
The frontrunner until it’s not. Right now they aren’t a lot of serious challengers lining up to put up a fight.
2. “Sully”
As noted, the biggest surprise of the season that we can’t imagine will fade anytime soon.
3. “Fences”
Denzel Washington’s big-screen adaptation of August Wilson’s classic play is either just an acting showcase for Washington and Viola Davis or a transformative drama that earns a ton of nominations including Best Picture. Is this where we remind people most of Scott Rudin’s recent productions are the latter?
4. “Manchester By The Sea”
Slow but steady for this Sundance premiere title that should be a major hit with SAG voters. When ‘Manchester’ starts screening for guilds in Los Angeles, we’ll really know how far it can truly go.
5. “Moonlight”
The most acclaimed movie of the year right now will likely be the most acclaimed movie at the end of the year. Critics groups will help, but so will an ending that is much more emotional than the film it is mistakenly compared to that didn’t make last year’s Best Picture cut, “Carol.”
6. “Lion”
People say Harvey Weinstein doesn’t have the money for a real campaign, and that may be true, but Garth Davis’ drama simply plays. It’s also more cinematic than most members will expect. Don’t discredit this one until members see it.
7. “Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk”
So many rumors about this one. We’ll find out when it debuts at NYFF on Oct. 14.
8. “Birth Of A Nation”
It’s not over till it’s over. There will still be a strong amount of support for ‘Birth’ despite the Nate Parker controversy. Solid box office will help.
9. “Hell Or High Water”
Did you know the official AMPAS screening at the Academy Theater for this movie in August was packed? Did we mention it was packed in the middle of August?
10. “Jackie”
It’s more than just Natalie Portman’s incredible performance. This movie is a spotlight into history and profoundly moving. 
Almost there:
“Silence”
Simply don’t know enough about the three-hour epic to put it ahead of some of these other players (at least with “Fences” we know the play). Throw out a trailer, add Scorsese and we’ll see.
“Loving”
I personally found Jeff Nichols’ historical drama quite moving, but also heard concerns about the picture from Cannes in Toronto. That being said, all it needs is a core group of first-place votes to make the cut and that’s still very, very possible.
“Hidden Figures”
The movie looks like it could be a broad Oscar player, but is it just a crowd-pleaser with memorable performances from Taraji P. Henson, Octavia Spencer, Janelle Monáe and Kevin Costner?
“Nocturnal Animals”
It may have met with a polarizing reaction with critics, but this pundit is on the island that was won over by Tom Ford’s thriller and thinks Amy Adams is actually better here than in her other awards-season release (see below). The big news from Venice and TIFF, however, is how fantastic Michael Shannon is. Could ‘Animals’ play better with the Academy than with critics? Well, no shade, but Adams does play a sympathetic character that is a rich white woman who lives in the Hollywood Hills. (Just sayin’.)
“A Monster Calls”
Another Focus Features title on the cusp, ‘Monster’ was a tearjerker for many at TIFF, but not all. There is absolutely going to be a passionate fan base for this movie. The question is: Are enough of them Academy members?
“Arrival”
Amy Adams is fantastic. Jeremy Renner hasn’t been this relaxed in forever. The movie is probably not a real Oscar player, however. Could it be a nice sci-fi hit for the studio? Absolutely. A real prestige play? We’re not so sure.
“Florence Foster Jenkins”
What’s hurting Stephen Frears’ hilarious and moving dramedy is simply box office (currently on track to barely pass “Ricki And The Flash” domestically). The Paramount release could certainly be a screening and SAG champ (Golden Globe nods are a given), but it’s gonna need some major TLC to surpass a number of other Best Picture contenders.
“20th Century Women”
Buzz is that the film is more about Annette Bening’s performance than anything else and that isn’t necessarily a bad thing.
“Patriots Day”
Heard this CBS Films late-season entry is something of a surprise. Don’t sleep on Mark Wahlberg.
“Allied”
Robert Zemeckis’ WWII thriller looks sumptuous, but those Brad Pitt and Marion Cotillard rumors won’t help its awards-season prospects.
“Live By Night”
Love the trailer outside of Affleck’s white fedora. Are we going to find out about an official New York and Los Angeles qualifying run anytime soon?
“Gold”
Is it a Best Picture play or just a showcase for star Matthew McConaughey? Too soon too tell.
Dare to dream:
“The Lobster”
A24’s surprise summer art-house hit is one of the year’s most acclaimed films and could be a player in the Original Screenplay, Best Actor (Colin Farrell) and Best Supporting Actress (Rachel Weisz) categories. Anything more? That would be a shock.
“The Jungle Book”
Don’t laugh. It’s one of the most critically acclaimed movies of the year and has widespread respect through the industry. It’s a reach, but possible.
“Bleed For This”
If there hadn’t been 300 other boxing movies the past 18 months, Ben Younger’s flick would have a shot at a nod. Right now, it’s down to a potential Best Supporting Actor nomination for Aaron Eckhart.
“Love & Friendship”
Amazon and Roadside’s art-house smash has its fans, but it’s simply too small to crack the Academy’s Best Picture race. Now as for earning a Best Picture – Comedy or Musical nomination from the HFPA? That’s a different matter entirely.
What do you think of this year’s Best Picture contenders? Share your thoughts below.
For more awards season and movie industry insight follow me on Twitter at @theGregorye.
Its not like Nocturnal Animals didnt play well with critics…75 on MC and 81% on RT is pretty good.
Sure and – again – I’m a fan. But — the word on the ground was not as positive.
What are the rumors about Billy Lynn?
Many. We’ll see when it screens at NYFF.
What about Zootopia? It has critical and audience backing, it captures the cultural zeitgeist with its portrait of racism and prejudice in America, and who knows, they may include one animated film to represent how great a year it’s been for the genre.
As usual, will have to settle for Best Animated Feature…unless Moana is something incredible. We’re basically looking at Finding Dory, Kubo, Moana, Zootopia, and the usual out-of-nowhere foreign art-house release. But sure, right now, Zootopia is the film to beat.