And finally, our long journey is almost at an end. It’s been a little over five and a half months since the fall festival season kicked off and AMPAS members are finally about to cast their final ballots for the 94th Academy Awards. There are a number of races that seem pretty much settled. For example, Jenny Beavan winning Costumes for “Cruella” is one of the biggest locks of the night. But there are other Oscar statues still up for grabs. And a few categories that are either still suspiciously up in the air or dangerously close to an upset. Let’s start with the most prestigious trophy of all, the Oscar for Best Picture.
READ MORE: “The Power of the Dog” takes Best Film at 2022 BAFTA Awards
Maybe it’s just “The Power of the Dog”
Sometimes it’s easier to look for reasons why a film won’t win Best Picture instead of why it will. Does the celebrated “Power of the Dog” lack the emotional heart of any Best Picture winner since “No Country For Old Men?” Sure. Does it have enough love to land the all-important second place votes it needs? Potentially. Is it true that films with the most overall nominations often don’t win Best Picture? It is mostly true, yes. And is there still some anti-Netflix sentiment out there among the AMPAS membership? Sure, but certainly less than last year and the year before that, etc. (it helps that more and more Academy members are working for the streamer in one aspect or another). Did Jane Campion‘s speech at the Critics Choice Awards hurt the movie’s chances? On social media, absolutely, but more members probably saw her catty DGA Award red carpet comments regarding Sam Elliott than that genuine mistake. But, more importantly, what movie is going to beat it? If “Belfast” couldn’t win Best Picture from the BAFTAs on its home turf (reminder: BAFTA and AMPAS membership might have more overlap than any other two awards organizations) how is it pulling off the Oscar for Best Picture? “CODA” continues to surprise with consistent wins for Troy Kotsur and writer/director Sian Heder, but no film has won with so few overall nominations (“CODA” has three) since the Great Depression. Again, FDR was in office the last time a film had so few nominations and won. If the Apple TV+ acquisition wins Adapted Screenplay and Supporting Actor, I mean, maybe they pull it off? The only true player with all the key branches (acting, directing, editing, writing) and nods in categories you might not expect (Production Design, Sound) is “Power.” Maybe “Belfast,” “CODA” and, potentially, “King Richard” will siphon off too many votes from each other to take the Netflix title down. Or, here’s a wild take, maybe enough AMPAS members just feel it’s their pick for Best Picture? The upcoming PGA Awards honor for Best Theatrical Motion Picture (which uses the same voting formula as the Oscars) will be key. If it wins there? That Oscar mantle is pretty damn secure.
Sorry, Nicole but this isn’t your time
Perhaps even more fun than a potentially tight Best Picture race is the unexpected drama in Best Actress. It used to be that the SAG Award winner was pretty much a lock to repeat on Oscar night. Two misses over the past four years (including last year) have made that correlation more questionable. And the fact new BAFTA Awards rules meant there was no duplication in nominees this year has made things even more discerning. There is also the fact that none of this year’s nominees were from a Best Picture nominated film such as Frances McDormand, last year. In theory, Jessica Chastain has the best chance at winning because of her SAG triumph and the publicity of taking a, cough, “Critics Choice” honor. She also, arguably, had the most dramatic transformation screenwise of her peers but you can’t discard that “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” has earned only mixed notices from critics and the industry alike. Comparatively, Kristen Stewart made the Oscar cut after a number of other snubs, but she was the only nomination from Pablo Larrain’s “Spencer.” A film that, despite NEON’s efforts to campaign it across the board couldn’t even land a Costumes nomination (which should have been a slam dunk). The Academy were simply not fans. Chastain does have competition from “Parallel Mothers'” Penelope Cruz. We won’t discount SPC’s ability to pull miracles out of their hats after “The Father’s” two wins last year, but we’re not convinced Cruz has been able to do enough in-person campaigning to pull it off. As for Nicole Kidman, she ultimately deserves a second trophy for her stellar career, but it’s not happening for “Being The Ricardos.” Not against this field. And that leaves Olivia Colman. A “surprise” winner three years ago (except for me, who was the sole awards pundit to predict her win) and potentially the benefactor of “The Lost Daughter” love. Colman’s director, Maggie Gyllenhaal, has taken a number of Spirit Awards and DGA Awards trophies over the past few weeks. Could that translate into the beloved Colman winning yet again? It should be noted that when an actor wins twice it often happens sooner rather than later (Tom Hanks, Meryl Streep, Sean Penn, Sally Field, Mahershal Ali, Hilary Swank, Christoph Waltz, and Kevin Spacey, among others). And no one would argue Colman isn’t worthy of it for her performance alone. So, Chastain? Colman? Cruz? A Stewart surprise? Good luck predicting this one.
Will Smith and Oscar history
The “King Richard” star has won the SAG and BAFTA Award for Best Actor. He hasn’t overly campaigned and put the film first instead of his own performance. But, why then are we nervous about the longtime Hollywood favorite’s Oscar chances? Maybe it’s because we’ve seen other African American actors win (almost) everything else only to lose when it comes to Oscar. Last year it was Chadwick Boseman and Viola Davis. And another comedy champ, Eddie Murphy, was famously snubbed at the Kodak Theater less than 15 years ago. Waiting in the wings are Benedict Cumberbatch and Andrew Garfield, who have both campaigned pretty much everywhere. So, we’re not saying Smith, WB and Co. should be slightly nervous, but we’re not not saying it either.
“No Time To Die” vs “Dos Oruguitas”
Are we living in a timeline where Sam Smith may hold an Oscar for his utterly forgettable Bond theme song and Billie Eilish might not? Um, maybe? Three months ago it seemed obvious that Eilish and Finneas O’Connell’s “No Time To Die” title track would easily take the Original Song Oscar. Then “Encanto” went on Disney Plus, the soundtrack has become a massive hit and, in a stunning surprise, “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” went to no. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 (at publication it’s still at no. 2 and has been on the chart 11 weeks, but don’t get just started how they are using social media to determine placement these days). Of course, Disney didn’t submit “Bruno” for Oscar consideration, it submitted “Dos Oruguitas,” which at the time, they thought was a safer submission. Will Academy voters see “Encanto” listed and convey their love and their children’s incessant singing of “Bruno” to the other Lin-Manuel Miranda composition? Or will “No Time,” which already won the equivalent Grammy Award for this category last Spring (thank you pandemic release delay) and is arguably a top 10 all-time Bond song still pull off the win?
Why is no one talking about Best Film Editing
So, a strange thing happened at the Eddie Awards earlier this month. The Editors guild didn’t vote for “The Power of the Dog” (mild applause) or “No Time To Die” (which took BAFTA this past weekend and was snubbed by AMPAS) or the other potential frontrunner, “Dune.” Instead, they selected Pamela Martin‘s work for “King Richard.” Martin, who is a longtime “studio fixer” (that’s a compliment), received a thunderous ovation for her win. Her reputation preceded her, but is the Editing Oscar perhaps more wide open a race than anyone is giving it credit for? Granted, the winner here hasn’t lined up the Best Picture winner since “Argo” in 2013, but is it really Joe Walker and “Dune’s” to lose? Could “Don’t Look Up’s” Hank Corwin or the team behind “tick, tick…BOOM!” potentially surprise? There are always a few surprises on Oscar Sunday and, well, this category might be one of them.
Keeping all that in mind, here are the current curious standings of the Best Picture race in the latest Contender Countdown.
March 16, 2022
1 “The Power of the Dog”
Probably winning…unless PGA makes things interesting.
2 “CODA”
Would become Sundance’s first world premiere Best Picture winner.
3 “Belfast”
Looking for a lifeline from PGA. Certainly not out of it.
4 “King Richard”
Y’all remember “Argo”?
5 “West Side Story”
A win for Ariana DeBose and Steven Spielberg‘s eighth Directing nomination is nothing to sneeze at.
6 “Dune”
Will likely win the most individual Oscars and propel WB to the most trophies for any studio this year.
7 “Licorice Pizza”
Paul Thomas Anderson might win his first Oscar in the Original Screenplay category.
8 “Drive My Car”
An International Feature Film win looks pretty secure after BAFTA.
9 “Don’t Look Up”
You already forgot it was nominated, didn’t you.
10 “Nightmare Alley”
No one will ever underestimate Guillermo Del Toro during awards season again.
