You may think Glenn Close is finally winning an Oscar, but we’re not so sure. Close has campaigned hard. She wants it and isn’t making it a secret. That doesn’t always play well with the membership. We’re also not convinced a majority of voters actually saw her nominated film, “The Wife.” Olivia Colman, on the other hand, delivered arguably one of the most impressive performances of the decade in “The Favourite.” Both won the Globe, Close took SAG (where she is now a 10-time nominee) and Colman took BAFTA. The latter’s membership aligns more with Oscar overall. Yep, we’re gonna die on that hill and we’re more than O.K. with it too. [Updated Feb. 12]
Predictions
1. Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
2. Glenn Close, “The Wife”
3. Lady Gaga, “A Star is Born”
4. Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
5. Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”
More predictions:
Best Picture
Best Director
Actress
Actor
Supporting Actress
Supporting Actor
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay
Foreign Language Film
sorry but Amy Adams is likely going supporting(where she will likely sweep) and Colman as well. Also once The WIfe is released Glenn will cement the frontrunner place (this seems to be a weaker year-in terms of competition) and all other ladies in the fall festivals will need to take that narrative and buzz away from her(similar to Cate Blanchett-Blue Jasmine situation) but it will be hard especially since The Wife has a great studio with great campaign, Glenn is the most overdue actress alive and is in a very topical film, not to mantion that many called this performance her best work in almost 30 years. Only one i think could take the gold away from her is Nicole Kidman for Destroyer, but we will see. I also think that The Favourite will overshadow Mary Queen of Scots which could become a big no one care film event of the year (similar to Suffragette, The Duchess etc). British history biopics just usually dont do well anymore with the Oscars, i mean Judi Dench wasnt able to win for Mrs Brown, and not even be nominated for Victoria and Abdul, Emily Blunt also couldnt get in in a weak year for Young Victoria, and Blanchett failed two times to win for Elizabeth. Also Saoirse is very respected now but still not a big name so MQOS will likely wont be a big box office hit, screening reports told us that the film is fine, Saoirse is strong (as usuall), but the thing is she, while kinda overdue is not as overdue as Close (no one really is 😀 ), she probably wont be a critics favourite since her film doesnt look like something critics will go for, nor do i think the film will be that good and i also dont think critics will be hungry to reward her since she was rewarded pretty recently(twice), and also Collette, Close (she sreams NBR winner), Kidman, Kulig or one of the Favourite ladies all have better chances i think). Like i said she is respected but not as respected as Close, Kidman, McCarthy, Stone, Davis etc. Also every time Saoirse got nominated it was as a part of a best picture nominee, which means she never trully had buzz just on her own (except maybe Brooklyn), i mean she was not the main most praised thing nor she was the face of Atonement (although her nod was deserved imo), Lady Bird was a phenomenon which was centered more around meetoo movement and around Greta Gerwig being only the one of the few women being nominated for directing, Saoirse was again (even though she won the Globe and few critics awrads and was the main character) rode along with the films success and was one of the reasons why it was the big success, and even then she couldnt win and i got the feeling that it was Greta Gerwig and maybe even Laurie Metcalf who got more attention in the end (from both critics and audiences). So i dont see how she wins for this but ok.
Emma Thompson (The Children Act) in nomination, please.
Joanna Kulig, totally deserves it.
Saoirse Ronan