You gotta love the HFPA. The 80 or so members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association try so hard to make all their studio friends happy. They never want anyone to leave the insane and no longer necessary in this day and age 5:30 AM Pst Golden Globe Awards nominations announcement empty handed. It’s tough though; they don’t give out participation trophies in Hollywood.
(Although, cough, the Critics Choice Awards might count in terms of participation nominations).
Nevertheless, the HFPA also continue to surprise. And while they have spent most of this decade picking films and nominees that won’t embarrass them in front of their global media friends, they still have a few cringeworthy tricks up their sleeve. Word is they are big fans of borderline Oscar players such as “Hidden Figures,” “Patriots Day” and, sigh, “Hacksaw Ridge.” And if you don’t think the HFPA doesn’t want to help Mel Gibson with a comeback Best Director nomination you don’t know the HFPA.
Keeping that in mind and realizing not even the greatest television reporter could ever accurately guess what their TV nominations will be (I won’t even try) our sources have helped us tabulate some predictions for the 2017 film nods (Assuming the HFPA isn’t lying to them of course).
Best Foreign Language Film
Likely:
“Aquarius”
“Elle”
“The Handmaiden”
“Neruda”
“Toni Erdmann”
Possible:
“Julieta”
“Desierto”
Lowdown: Pedro Almodovar has been nominated seven times in this category and won twice before. Should we really bet against “Julieta” getting in? If it does “Aquarius” is likely out.
Best Picture – Drama
Likely:
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“Hidden Figures”
“Lion”
“Manchester by the Sea”
“Moonlight”
Possible:
“Arrival”
“Fences”
“Hell or High Water”
“Loving”
“Patriot’s Day”
“Sully”
Lowdown: This category is brutal with every “possible” a true potential spoiler. It wouldn’t surprise me if there is somehow a “tie” and we get six nominees instead.
Best Picture – Musical or Comedy
Likely:
“Deadpool”
“Florence Foster Jenkins”
“La La Land”
“Love & Friendship”
“20th Century Women”
Possible:
“Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie”
“Bad Moms”
“Bridget Jones Baby”
“The Lobster”
“Edge of Seventeen”
“Sing Street”
Lowdown: That’s not a typo. Fox has been working “Deadpool” hard on the HFPA and it could land a nod over the expense of “Edge of Seventeen,” “The Lobster” or “Sing Street.” Or, maybe not.
Best Director
Likely:
Damien Chazelle, “La La Land”
Clint Eastwood, “Sully”
Mel Gibson, “Hacksaw Ridge”
Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight”
Martin Scorsese, “Silence”
Possible:
Denis Villeneuve, “Arrival”
Garth Davis, “Lion”
Pablo Larrain, “Jackie”
Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea”
David Mackenzie, “Hell or High Water”
Lowdown: Perhaps one of the most difficult to predict. They want to reward Eastwood and, as noted, love “Hacksaw.” Will they pick Lonergan, Villeneuve or Larrain over Scorsese?
Best Screenplay
Likely:
“Hell or High Water”
“Lion”
“Manchester by the Sea”
“Moonlight”
“Love and Friendship”
Possible:
“La La Land”
“The Lobster”
“Fences”
“Nocturnal Animals”
“Patriots Day”
“20th Century Women”
“Sully”
Lowdown: If “La La Land” gets a nod here than its winning every category its up for in January. “Lion” is potentially on the bubble.
Best Actress – Drama
Likely:
Amy Adams, “Arrival”
Isabelle Huppert, “Elle”
Ruth Negga, “Loving”
Natalie Portman, “Jackie”
Taraji P. Henson, “Hidden Figures”
Possible:
Amy Adams, “Nocturnal Animals”
Emily Blunt, “The Girl on the Train”
Jessica Chastain, “Miss Sloane”
Marion Cotillard, “Allied”
Lowdown: Henson should make the cut, but if she doesn’t it because Chastain squeaked in ahead of her. Also, don’t be surprised if Huppert is upset here.
Best Actress – Musical or Comedy
Likely:
Kate Beckinsale, “Love & Friendship”
Annette Bening, “20th Century Women”
Sally Field, “My Name Is Doris”
Emma Stone, “La La Land”
Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins”
Possible:
Lily Collins, “Rules Don’t Apply”
Sandra Huller, “Toni Erdmann”
Jennifer Saunders, “Absolutely Fabulous”
Hailee Steinfeld, “Edge of Seventeen”
Lowdown: Unless the HFPA want to make a progressive ingenue pick with Steinfeld the legendary Field should round out the, um, field.
Why is Hacksaw Ridge a sigh? Say what you want about Mel, but the guy made a fantastic film. It’s the best war film since Saving Private Ryan. Show me one director who’s capable of making a film like Hacksaw. The battle scenes are the most visually stunning and visceral I have ever seen. It deserves ever accolade it gets and Mel does deserve the Best Director Oscar for it. This bias is completely unprofessional. He apologized, get over it. He didn’t rape or kill anyone. RDJ said it best. There’s a reason a lot of people are coming to his defense.
Hacksaw Ridge would have to be a better film than The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Waltz With Bashir and Letters From Iwo Jima (to name only a few) in order to be the best war film since Saving Private Ryan. Which it isn’t. I’m not even sure Hacksaw Ridge is better than Jarhead.
That’s certainly your opinion. In my opinion it was a better film than those you named and the critics certainly agree with me. The reason it is better, is because it’s not only a war film. It’s a portrait of a complex man who’s thrown into hell and keeps his convictions. As opposed to the films you talk about that are military films, this is a film about humanity and war is the subject it explores. It makes you think and question a lot of things. The films you talk about are nothing but a glorification of the military, with the exception of Letters from Iwo Jima. The Hurt Locker has to be one of the worst films to ever win Best Picture. Inglorious Basterds is fun, but nothing more. It’s only appeal is it’s stylish set-ups and Christoph Waltz performance. It’s a Tarantino take on WW2.
You liked it morally. That doesn’t mean it’s a well-made film. And your criticism of “Hurt Locker” may be more telling than anything. That’s one of the best winners of the past 25 years.
Hacksaw Ridge has a score of 71 out of 100 on Metacritic, and an 87% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. I don’t even need to dig for the scores of Hurt Locker, Basterds or Iwo Jima to know without a doubt that the critics do not agree with you. But I appreciate your comments about the film and there are definitely a few things I agree with you about with regards to HR’s content. I don’t think it’s a bad movie I just don’t think it’s the best war film of the 21st century.
Braveheart has a metacritic score of 68% on Metacritic and 78% on Rotten Tomatoes. It won Best Picture and is considered of the best films ever made. The same goes for Apocalypto. That proves nothing. Why? Because every idiot who calls himself a critic votes. I should have been clearer. Top critics. Doctor Strange has a 90% on Rotten Tomatoes. Doesn’t prove nothing. Don’t think it ranks higher than Doctor Zhivago… That’s once again certainly your opinion.
First of all, I only brought any of those stats up because you said the “critics” agreed with you that Hacksaw Ridge is the best war film since Saving Private Ryan. And the fact is, the stats don’t support that assertion. If you feel that way, that’s one thing, and you’re completely entitled to that opinion. But to say that critics are on your side when clearly they aren’t takes a certain amount of cognitive dissonance. And by the way, Metacritic only counts the reviews of the 50 or so top critics working. So not just “anybody” is counted as a critic on that site. It’s why I vastly prefer it to Rotten Tomatoes. A perfect example of how Metacritic is superior to RT is Doctor Strange, which as you noted is over 90% on RT. Meanwhile, its Metacritic score sits at 72, a much closer approximation of the true level of quality of the film. And since Braveheart pre-dates the Metacritic site and far fewer reviews are available, I can almost guarantee it would be significantly higher were it released and reviewed today.
Bias? My dislike of Hacksaw has zero to do with Mel. It’s the on the nose filmmaking, knock you over the head religious overtones and corny dialogue just to start. The movie is as subtle dramatically as a Michael Bay film. And the “battle” scenes pale in comparison to “Saving Private Ryan,” “Hurt Locker,” “Letters From Iwo Jima,” “Blackhawk Down.” Gibson is problematic. And just apologizing doesn’t mean you aren’t a racist, but that has nothing to do with his movies. I thought he was great in front of the camera in Jodie Foster’s “The Beaver.” “Hacksaw” is nowhere near as interesting as that movie.
Did you really just say “The Beaver” was better than “Hacksaw Ridge” LOL WOW, you lost all credibility after that statement, and “Letters of Iwa Jima” was ok, and “The Hurt Locker” is definitely overrated
First of all the religious overtones were part of the story of Desmond. Secondly, it was never preachy or in your face. It was him and his faith, that’s about it. As an agnostic, I did not find it neither preachy nor promoting religion. What corny dialogue? It had well-written dialogue. In regards to its dramatic effect, I don’t know how you can compare it to a Bay film, but everybody has a right to an opinion. Drama has always been one of Mel’s strong suits. He doesn’t make cynical films and that’s a bit of a problem in today’s society. Any emotion is considered overly dramatic. Gibson is not problematic. Ranting does not make one a racist either. He’s been 30 years in the business and no incident. A lot of people, including Jews and blacks defended him and a lot of actors and directors seem to like him. There’s gotta be a reason behind it. Hacksaw Ridge was nowhere near as interesting as the Beaver? Wow…. You must have excellent taste in film. Mel’s performance was great but it was a bad film. Once again, the Hurt Locker was an absolute bore-fest. My criticism of it is certainly less telling than your praise of the Beaver. There are many people who absolutely hated the Hurt Locker.
Hacksaw Ridge gets a “sigh” because he has failed to include it in any of his top ten Oscar picks since he started his coverage, and when I told him it is way better than a “long shot” some two months ago, he laughed. He needs to stop putting the faith in Hidden Figures and put it in Hacksaw. And speaking of, I don’t think Hidden Figures or Lion are getting nominations, especially when there are only five here. Also, I once doubted your confidence in Patriots Day, only to almost be convinced the other way after it screened for AFI, but it never really took off and is hardly on anyone’s radar right now. I think the Wahlberg nom won’t be happening.
Well the AFI audience isn’t the HFPA.
And I’m not defending Hacksaw Ridge as a film. I thought it was decent, but a lot of your criticisms are apt. But being an amateur Oscar predictor, I felt a long time ago that it was going to resognante with people. It is quite strange that many of these Best Pic potentials seem to have an equal counterpart. Hacksaw – Silence, Fences – Loving, Sully – Patriots Day, Moonlight – Manchester, etc. That only leaves La La Land and Arrival kinda floating on their own. That’s part of the reason I predict La La to win. There’s no another similar story for it to compete with.
The AFI and the National Board of Review already named Hacksaw Ridge in their top 10. The Wrap is calling a nomination and a win for Gibson. Variety is calling a nomination. Neither Patriots Day nor Hidden Figures made it into the AFI list. They did make it into the National Board of Review. They won’t get big nominations either way.
I don’t get it. Even as a fan of Gibson I can admit Hacksaw Ridge was good not great, but far worse films have been nominated, right?
I want Hacksaw to do well because I want Mel to be able to make his Viking movie
I agree. It was good but had its fair share of cheesy parts and the mix of CGI in the action scenes ruin those for me.
Yeah I was surprised to see cheese in a Gibson film. But it’s not a film that was really “his baby” in the way Braveheart and others were, so I’m still confident he can pull off more truly great work w material he’s enraptured by.
The “cheesy” parts were probably because it’s based on a real man and according to his family and close friends it’s very true to Doss’ actual life. This film also shows a man from a simpler more idealistic time who lived by a moral code. Not sure if making true to Doss’ life was part of the movie rights deal.
This kinda annoying treatment made Gibson stay away from directin for 10 years, and still going on after he delivered a terrific film.
“sigh, “Hacksaw Ridge.” ” Really?
Has zero to do with Mel. “Hacksaw” is not terrific at all in my opinion.
“Gibson is problematic. And just apologizing doesn’t mean you aren’t a racist” suggests it has a lot to do with Mel.
You clearly don’t know me. I thought “Apocalypto” was fantastic and still do. This ain’t “Apocalypto.”
Man, Gibson has a lot of fans, honestly I didn’t like his film, yeah the guy can shoot action scenes, but so does Michael Bay, doesn’t mean he’s a great director, I hope he doesn’t get nominated because there are better directors than him pushing for more groundbreaking stories like Barry Jenkins, Pablo Larrain or Denis Villeneuve. But even if he does get nominated this year Damien Chazelle is going to win everything for his escapist La la land, Hollywood really likes to reward pictures about themselves, instead of films that break up the mold
I actually think Jenkins could win, but we’ll see.
Still attacking Mel Gibson because he has a disease. People need to learn alcoholism is a disease and stop discriminating. Mel has been attacked for his disease long enough!
Privelidged people need to stop attacking people who are BORN a certain way. They cannot help it, it is in their genes. It’s amazing how uneducated people are in the subject.
It is truly shameful we still live in a society such as this where people can write hateful things with impugnity.
Hacksaw Ridge is one of the best movie I’ve watched. I am Chinese and this was not even my country’s hero’s story. And I really felt Hollywood people are so racist on the people they don’t like.(Even they claim they embrace diversity… bala bala bala.)