Prediction used on nominations Feb. 5]
NOMINEES
1. “La La Land”
2. “Hidden Figures”
3. “Moonlight”
4. “Lion”
5. “Hacksaw Ridge”
6. “Manchester By The Sea”
7. “Arrival”
8. “Hell or High Water”
9. “Fences”
PREVIOUS CONTENDERS (for historical context)
“Florence Foster Jenkins”
“Jackie”
“Loving”
“Nocturnal Animals”
“Patriots Day”
“20th Century Women”
“Sully”
“Silence
“Allied”
“A Monster Calls”
“The Jungle Book”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“The Lobster”
“Love & Friendship”
“Zootopia”
Gregory Ellwood’s Current Oscar Predictions:
Best Picture
Director
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay
Editing
Cinematography
Production Design
Animated Feature Film
Foreign Language Film
Documentary Feature
Original Score
Original Song
Costume Design
Makeup and Hairstyling
Visual Effects
Sound Mixing
Sound Editing
Heartbreak Ridge is from 1986, I don’t think it has a shot this year.
Yeah, caught and fixed. Gotta make a mistake somewhere.
And regardless, Hacksaw Ridge is more than a “long shot.” He’s got that one wrong.
Probably not.
I like you Greg, I can already tell. And I appreciate the responses to our comments. There’s not enough of that on this site. I’m no Oscar expert, but I love this time of year and follow the races closely. I usually go to Awards Daily for my fix. I’m glad you’re covering everything on this site though, as it’s my favorite. Now about Hacksaw Ridge…I know people might still hate Mel Gibson, but I don’t think it’s going to inhibit Ridge from making an impact. In fact, the worst review it got was the one from this site, currently it’s one “rotten” one on rottentomatoes, where it’s sitting at a 96 percent. That’s the same score as La La Land, but mind you with less reviews. Where I think Hacksaw Rodge makes up ground though is with the common viewer, not the critic. For instance, your reviewer for the film seemed biased and I think let her liberal attitude influence her experience. Regular people relate to patriotism and sacrifice and heroes, even if they cite God as the source of their achievements. That’s why it had a 8.9 on IMDB, currently the highest score out of all the Oscar movies that have been seen so far. Now I haven’t seen it, so I may be way off base, but it’s just my thoughts.
I haven’t seen Hacksaw yet. Also, those were mostly European critics. Lastly, you have to take the Gibson factor into account. When I see Hacksaw I may change my mind, but in a competitive and tight race it’s gonna be tough.
What about Passengers? No possibility for Best Picture nomination?
That’s why I stopped reading.
pffff, no Passengers? Are they paying attention?
Yes, we’re paying attention.
I agree with Greg. Passengers isn’t getting any noms. Even technical one it could get, I think would go to Rogue One.
Rgoue One is terrible. they did reshoots and doesn’t have a caliber of Jenn Lawrence
Rogue One is not getting a nod. Below the line maybe.
Uh, SING STREET. Thank you very much.
If Harvey puts money behind a campaign I’d believe it as a longshot. Right now? Pfftttt.
My Best Picture Predictions are
Arrival
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Birth of a Nation
Fences
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Loving
Manchester by the Sea
Silence
So are mine, except for “The Birth Of A Nation”, which I would replace with “Moonlight.”
Billy Lynn’s boundary-pushing medium is already its double-edged knife.
Moonlight is great, great indie but this is Oscar we’re talking about–it’s a tough sell.
Lion isn’t even a critic darling.
Jackie and Sully are your typical good Oscar bait biopic.
Personally right now it’s Manchester by the Sea and Hell or High Water. I’m waiting for La La Land, Fences and Silence.