Prediction based on nominations [Feb. 5]
NOMINEES
1. Damien Chazelle, “La La Land”
2. Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight”
3. Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea”
4. Denis Villeneuve, “Arrival”
5. Mel Gibson, “Hacksaw Ridge”
PREVIOUS CONTENDERS (for historical context)
Garth Davis, “Lion”
Clint Eastwood, “Sully”
Pablo Larrain, “Jackie”
David Mackenzie, “Hell or High Water”
Stephen Frears, “Florence Foster Jenkins”
Martin Scorsese, “Silence”
Denzel Washington, “Fences”
Ben Affleck, “Live By Night”
Jon Favreau, “The Jungle Book”
Tom Ford, “Nocturnal Animals”
Theodore Melfi, “Hidden Figures”
Jeff Nichols, “Loving”
Morten Tyldum, “Passengers”
Robert Zemekis, “Allied”
Gregory Ellwood’s Current Oscar Predictions:
Best Picture
Director
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay
Editing
Cinematography
Production Design
Animated Feature Film
Foreign Language Film
Documentary Feature
Original Score
Original Song
Costume Design
Makeup and Hairstyling
Visual Effects
Sound Mixing
Sound Editing
Jeff Nichols is more than a long shot.
Scorsese makes the top five for director, but “Silence” doesn’t make the top ten for director? Of course that’s a possibility, but it seems like if you’re going to put the movie in sight unseen for the more competitive director field then it should also make it in for picture (especially considering the fact that Scorsese’s only had one film miss for a Best Picture nomination this century–and it may not have had it been released in the fall instead of February).
My Best Director predictions are
Ang Lee-Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Damien Chazelle-La La Land
Denzel Washington-Fences
Kenneth Lonergan-Manchester by the Sea
Martin Scorsese-Silence
Gregory, what about Denis Villeneuve for “Arrival”? Don’t you consider him at least a long shot?
Does no one care about Mel Gibson!!!!