Prediction based on nominations [Updated Feb. 5]
NOMINEES
1. “Zootopia”
2. “Kubo and the Two Strings”
3. “Moana”
4. “The Red Turtle”
5. “My Life as a Zucchini”
PREVIOUS CONTENDERS (for historical context)
“The Little Prince”
“Long Way North”
“Sausage Party”
“Sing”
“The Secret Life of Pets”
“Finding Dory”
“The Angry Birds Movie”
“April and the Extraordinary World”
“Bilal”
“Ice Age: Collision Course”
“Kingsglaive: Final Fantasy XV”
“Kung Fu Panda 3”
“Miss Hokusai”
“Monkey King: Hero Is Back”
“Mune”
“Mustafa & the Magician”
“Phantom Boy”
“Snowtime!”
“Storks”
“Trolls”
“25 April”
“Your Name”
Other categories:
Gregory Ellwood’s Current Oscar Predictions:
Best Picture
Director
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay
Editing
Cinematography
Production Design
Animated Feature Film
Foreign Language Film
Documentary Feature
Original Score
Original Song
Costume Design
Makeup and Hairstyling
Visual Effects
Sound Mixing
Sound Editing
It goes a lot to say that 4 out of the top 5 predictions are animated movies geared towards pre-teen and adolescents. This doesn’t make the prediction bad (it is likely in fact that this is the final set of movies), but it does point to the immaturity of the Academy in appreciating animation as an art form that can exceed live-motion movies.
I dont think Finding Dory deserves a nom. I haven’t seen Sing but being that it’s an Illumination film I feel it’s very likely not going to be prestige material. I hope Moana takes it.